(12-09-2011 10:22 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  People keep saying the SEC can raid the ACC anytime it wants. This doesn't look to be true.

If the SEC wanted to raid the ACC it could at any time. Even with the $20m buyout, several ACC schools would go to the SEC if invited. The problem is that the SEC appears to only want to expand to new states. The most SEC like ACC schools (FSU, Clemson) are already in SEC states. The ACC areas that the SEC would want to target are NC and Va. In those two states only VT jumps out as being a possibility.

(12-09-2011 11:29 AM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  

(12-09-2011 10:22 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  People keep saying the SEC can raid the ACC anytime it wants. This doesn't look to be true.

If the SEC wanted to raid the ACC it could at any time. Even with the $20m buyout, several ACC schools would go to the SEC if invited. The problem is that the SEC appears to only want to expand to new states. The most SEC like ACC schools (FSU, Clemson) are already in SEC states. The ACC areas that the SEC would want to target are NC and Va. In those two states only VT jumps out as being a possibility.

After Texas, the two most lucrative states for the SEC are indeed North Carolina and Virginia - both way more important to TV than the state of Missouri and in terms of the SEC's more natural geographic fit. Yet the SEC couldn't get an ACC team from either state to jump. You don't think they really wanted Mizzou over VT, Virginia, or North Carolina do you???

Cheers,
Neil

I guess its possible the sec could go for OU and OK state combo to get to 16. The problem is twofold, that dramatically shifts the sec westward, do LSU/Ole miss/ etc want to basically leave the sec and join a more big 12 type division + do OU and Ok state want to reconsider an sec membership. I could possibly see OU/Ok state get feed up with a texas run big 12 and consider the sec if rebuffed by the pac 10 again but i'm not sure moving so west is good for the sec. Than again, its not iron clad 16 is the endgame since the sec might want to jump to 18-20 if they could bring in texas. My guess is the sec wants to move east and jump to 16 with 2 school's. The problem is what school's in their targets are willing? I just don't see unc, duke, uva or vtech making that move + clemson and g tech don't really offer much. You could make a case for Fl state if willing to get more in the Fl market. The more i think about maybe the combo of ECU and NC state could also work but getting NC state to leave the acc seems unlikely + ECU would be making a huge jump, the big east doesn't even want them. In the end, its probably Fl state and the best pairing for team 16 is probably wvu or lville might work to add a hoops power. The trigger for sending fl state to the sec might be the acc going to northeast with expansion by adding uconn + rutgers, which might be the main reason the acc doesn't expand to 16...although the carolina school's might prefer uconn hoops over fsu football.

(12-09-2011 12:05 PM)bluesox Wrote:  ... My guess is the sec wants to move east and jump to 16 with 2 school's. The problem is what school's in their targets are willing? I just don't see unc, duke, uva or vtech making that move + clemson and g tech don't really offer much... The more i think about maybe the combo of ECU and NC state could also work but getting NC state to leave the acc seems unlikely + ECU would be making a huge jump, the big east doesn't even want them... .

First of all it would be a hugh jump for any school to go into the SEC. Look how long it has taken South Carolina and to a lesser extent even Arkansas to get up to speed. Secondly, the comparing what the SEC is looking for in a school to what the Big East is looking for in a school; is like comparing Bank of America strategic planning to that of a local Savings and Loan or Wal-Mart's planning to that of a Ma & Pa dry goods store. And while ECU's location in North Carolina was a problem for the Big East; that same location would not be a problem for the SEC, considering that most SEC schools are sitting in similar locations within their states.

BTW, I am in no way saying that ECU would ever be in the SEC, but if the SEC is bent on being in North Carolina, then don't be to quick to dismiss ECU; because they do have the student body (2nd largest University in North Carolina), the fans (average 50,000 per game), stadium plans (I thought that I read that they are going at 65,000 seats within the next few years) and the fact that they are a football first school. I would imagine that N.C. State would be the SEC's first choice (UNC, Wake and Duke are not happening), but if they declined then hopefully ECU is the fall back.

(12-09-2011 11:33 AM)omniorange Wrote:  

(12-09-2011 11:29 AM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  

(12-09-2011 10:22 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  People keep saying the SEC can raid the ACC anytime it wants. This doesn't look to be true.

If the SEC wanted to raid the ACC it could at any time. Even with the $20m buyout, several ACC schools would go to the SEC if invited. The problem is that the SEC appears to only want to expand to new states. The most SEC like ACC schools (FSU, Clemson) are already in SEC states. The ACC areas that the SEC would want to target are NC and Va. In those two states only VT jumps out as being a possibility.

After Texas, the two most lucrative states for the SEC are indeed North Carolina and Virginia - both way more important to TV than the state of Missouri and in terms of the SEC's more natural geographic fit. Yet the SEC couldn't get an ACC team from either state to jump. You don't think they really wanted Mizzou over VT, Virginia, or North Carolina do you???

Cheers,
Neil

Frankly I think that the SEC probably saw that the Tobacco Road schools and Va were nonstarters. They are ACC type through and through. NCSU was probably approached and offered a aTm scenario. Ala a chance to finally get out from the shadow of big brother U of.. I just don't think that relationship is anywhere near as strained as the Aggies/Longhorns was. VT may have been contacted and considered the move (I don't know, I'm just a guy on a message board, not a conference insider). However, I believe that so much political capital was expanded to get into the ACC, that a move out would be career suicide for any VT administrator who tried.

(12-09-2011 12:41 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(12-09-2011 12:05 PM)bluesox Wrote:  ... My guess is the sec wants to move east and jump to 16 with 2 school's. The problem is what school's in their targets are willing? I just don't see unc, duke, uva or vtech making that move + clemson and g tech don't really offer much... The more i think about maybe the combo of ECU and NC state could also work but getting NC state to leave the acc seems unlikely + ECU would be making a huge jump, the big east doesn't even want them... .

First of all it would be a hugh jump for any school to go into the SEC. Look how long it has taken South Carolina and to a lesser extent even Arkansas to get up to speed. Secondly, the comparing what the SEC is looking for in a school to what the Big East is looking for in a school; is like comparing Bank of America strategic planning to that of a local Savings and Loan or Wal-Mart's planning to that of a Ma & Pa dry goods store. And while ECU's location in North Carolina was a problem for the Big East; that same location would not be a problem for the SEC, considering that most SEC schools are sitting in similar locations within their states.

BTW, I am in no way saying that ECU would ever be in the SEC, but if the SEC is bent on being in North Carolina, then don't be to quick to dismiss ECU; because they do have the student body (2nd largest University in North Carolina), the fans (average 50,000 per game), stadium plans (I thought that I read that they are going at 65,000 seats within the next few years) and the fact that they are a football first school. I would imagine that N.C. State would be the SEC's first choice (UNC, Wake and Duke are not happening), but if they declined then hopefully ECU is the fall back.

Yeah, actually I think ECU would make a great fit in a couple years or so when the mood has progressed to the point where the SEC may look for 16. The SEC already has enough powerhouses. They need coverage and ECU is very likely the only opportunity they will have to get into North Carolina without stepping on the ACC, although the ACC may not agree that taking in ECU Isn't stepping on ACC toes. I would think that programs like Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Kentucky would be all for having ECU in the East and with Florida having some rough seasons they surely don't want a powerhouse getting into the East. I would think they would like all the things you listed about ECU as well as where ECU would fit into the hierarchy.

I would see TCU as the western equivalent.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...ioners-say

Quote:Another issue for the Big East: the Big 12 could ask Louisville to join at any moment if it wants to get to 12 schools, while the ACC would love to get Notre Dame in all sports and then take Connecticut as the 16th member, according to high-level conference sources. One Notre Dame source has said the Irish want to be in a neighborhood of schools it considers similar -- that means schools like Duke, North Carolina and Virginia, all of which are established academic institutions.

Even ESPN writers are now talking about what responses there will be. They are a little slow in picking up on such, we are already 11 pages into the discussion.

Louisville would be a great fit. Recent up grades on campus have made it much larger in residential space, classroom expansion.we've grown far beyond the urban commuter university that most think we still were 20 years ago. Athletic facilities are second to none. Committed to higher education as well as Coaching staffs in all sports vowing to build the best programs in the nation.

(12-10-2011 09:03 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Louisville would be a great fit. Recent up grades on campus have made it much larger in residential space, classroom expansion.we've grown far beyond the urban commuter university that most think we still were 20 years ago. Athletic facilities are second to none. Committed to higher education as well as Coaching staffs in all sports vowing to build the best programs in the nation.

So what's wrong with the Big East?

Bigger payouts, more exposure,recruiting,not having to hear UK fans brag about their SEC conference that they probably couldn't get into today if they wanted to if BB is not driving the bus.Priceless

The Big East teams are going nowhere... with the addition of the new five... the exit penalties are now too high. The fee is $10-million (which isn't terrible), BUT forfeiture of television revenues during exit (that's big $$$ for a 27 month notification/wait) makes it the stiffest penalty for departure in the country... ESPN rushed early renewal deals to the ACC, Big 12, and Big East last spring (the Big East rejected it on the grounds it eliminated CBS contract growth and under-valued it's basketball) and then two months later, ESPN is involved in the mammoth Pac 12 deal. ESPN raised the bar on deals and then the Big East raised the bar on teams, conference championship, markets and potential reach... Notre Dame brought NBC to the Big East table with interest, CBS has since been outspoken on their interest to keep their rights, and ESPN, who doesn't want to go higher likely will, Boise State was a ratings darling for them - appeared more times on ESPN in the last 3 years than any other football school - which will likely mean a new offer from them too. The magic for a non-exclusive deal from ESPN is $90-millon, add to that CBS's previous $40-million basketball offer (which they'd probably increase to keep a share) and NBC wants a piece too, which could push it up a couple tens of millions. The Big East has said, it wants to be the first national conference, does that mean it could also become the first to 16; after being reactive so long, do they become proactive?

One more thing... if they do land a larger deal for television in 2012, does that entice the in-waiting 'Cuse and Pitt to rethink their departures? It's obvious they're only leaving for the tv revenue.

(12-08-2011 01:05 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(12-08-2011 10:45 AM)UMgoblue Wrote:  Frank, i agree the move to 16 is overstated and IF it happens the timeline is not nearly as fast as some would have us believe. However, I don't think the B1G is necessarily waiting on Notre Dame. I think the B1G could make a move in 2016 when they renegotiate their TV contracts. Just think, they could potentially increase each schools share of $$$ while still adding schools that are located in new markets, like the south.

Who are the targets that are worth $30 million apiece in new revenue?

Well, my theory is Florida State and Georgia Tech. You've got one big state school (and big football brand) and one research heavy (and recent AAU member). Now FSU isn't an AAU school yet, but that probably isn't a deal-breaker. Both are located in new states (see BTN contract), and one put together a committee to research conference realignment (i.e. looking at their options). Plus, neither is going to be let into the SEC.

I think the BTN contract in 2016 will be the biggest yet.

(12-12-2011 10:16 AM)UMgoblue Wrote:  

(12-08-2011 01:05 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(12-08-2011 10:45 AM)UMgoblue Wrote:  Frank, i agree the move to 16 is overstated and IF it happens the timeline is not nearly as fast as some would have us believe. However, I don't think the B1G is necessarily waiting on Notre Dame. I think the B1G could make a move in 2016 when they renegotiate their TV contracts. Just think, they could potentially increase each schools share of $$$ while still adding schools that are located in new markets, like the south.

Who are the targets that are worth $30 million apiece in new revenue?

Well, my theory is Florida State and Georgia Tech. You've got one big state school (and big football brand) and one research heavy (and recent AAU member). Now FSU isn't an AAU school yet, but that probably isn't a deal-breaker. Both are located in new states (see BTN contract), and one put together a committee to research conference realignment (i.e. looking at their options). Plus, neither is going to be let into the SEC.

I think the BTN contract in 2016 will be the biggest yet.

Not sure about FSU. I 100% agree with Georgia Tech.......great school, huge market, good athletics. I could also see Maryland, Rutgers, and Virginia (with VT going to the SEC).

FSU would never be in the BIG. If there was even a hint that there was something to this, the SEC would drop that gentleman's agreement to work them in and keep the the state of FLA. The ACC is one thing, the BIG is another.

(12-12-2011 02:51 AM)IceJus10 Wrote:  One more thing... if they do land a larger deal for television in 2012, does that entice the in-waiting 'Cuse and Pitt to rethink their departures? It's obvious they're only leaving for the tv revenue.

No chance. And they're leaving for more reasons than just TV revenue.

(12-12-2011 11:19 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(12-12-2011 02:51 AM)IceJus10 Wrote:  One more thing... if they do land a larger deal for television in 2012, does that entice the in-waiting 'Cuse and Pitt to rethink their departures? It's obvious they're only leaving for the tv revenue.

No chance. And they're leaving for more reasons than just TV revenue.

Absolutely Correct. Whatever happens, neither Pitt or SU would return to the BE under its new hodgepodge membership. It stretches out too far with a bunch of schools that have no cultural or academic connection.