Preseason Top 25: Sooners the better team
April 5, 2005
By Gregg Doyel
SportsLine.com Senior Writer
Tell Gregg your opinion!
Yes, Oklahoma. Absolutely, Oklahoma.
Oklahoma, which returns the top five scorers from this past season's 25-8 team, is CBS SportsLine.com's pick to win the 2006 national championship for three primary reasons:
Carter is the 6-foot-6, 225-pound junior who redshirted this past season after transferring from UC Riverside. In two seasons there, he averaged 16 points and six rebounds per game. If that doesn't tell you how good he is, this should:
"Nate Carter would have started for us this season," Oklahoma coach Kelvin Sampson says.
Any more questions about Nate Carter?
As for Neal, he's a juco transfer along the lines of 2004-05 stars Taj Gray and Terrell Everett. The 6-4 Neal was considered the country's best juco shooting guard this season.
The NBA Draft is significant to the Sooners on two levels. One, Gray chose not to enter it; he'll enter 2005-06 as a candidate for national player of the year. Two, the other teams CBS SportsLine.com considered for the No. 1 ranking -- Duke, North Carolina, Connecticut and Louisville -- all could lose key players and/or recruits to the 2005 draft.
The CBS SportsLine.com Pre-Preseason Top 25:
1. Oklahoma: The last time the Sooners had this much talent and depth, they reached the 2002 Final Four. Oklahoma could have the country's best starting frontcourt next season in Gray, Carter and Kevin Bookout. The backcourt will be wicked deep with Everett, Neal, Lawrence McKenzie, Drew Lavender and David Godbold. That's eight quality players, and seven are juniors or seniors.
2. Duke: Daniel Ewing will be missed, but if junior Shelden Williams and recruit Josh McRoberts put off the NBA, the Blue Devils will be just as talented next season -- and considerably deeper thanks to another awesome recruiting class. Two incoming freshmen might even start: point guard Greg Paulus and McRoberts at power forward.
3. Kentucky: There's not much incoming talent, but those freshmen become sophomores, and power forward Chuck Hayes was the only senior in the rotation. What if Tubby Smith figures a way to get 7-3 Shagari Alleyne and 6-10 Randolph Morris onto the court at the same time? Or more diabolically, what if Smith unleashes a quick lineup featuring 6-5 Kelenna Azubuike and 6-4 Joe Crawford at the forward spots?
4. North Carolina: The Tar Heels' 2006 national championship hopes rest on the NBA decisions of Raymond Felton, Marvin Williams, Rashad McCants and Sean May. The recruiting class was good enough to plug some of those gaps, most notably power forward Tyler Hansbrough and guard Bobby Frasor, but if Felton turns pro, rising sophomore Quentin Thomas must be ready for the point.
5. Louisville: The Cardinals will suffer heavy attrition, most notably senior center Ellis Myles and junior Francisco Garcia's expected departure for the NBA, but two stud redshirts (injured Brian Johnson and ex-Kansas big man David Padgett) and an enormous recruiting class will keep Louisville in the Final Four hunt.
6. Connecticut: If sophomore forward Charlie Villanueva is the only player UConn loses to the 2005 NBA Draft, watch out. Villanueva would have been a star next season, but the Huskies will be fine if redshirt freshman guard A.J. Price recovers from his brain condition to join another strong recruiting class and the return of Marcus Williams, Rudy Gay, Josh Boone, Rashad Anderson, Denham Brown, Hilton Armstrong ...
7. Gonzaga: Everyone but Ronny Turiaf returns, and J.P. Batista will be ready for Turiaf's starring role next season, with 6-11 redshirt Josh Heytvelt assuming Batista's complementary role. Adam Morrison and Derek Raivio could be the West's best 1-2 scoring combination.
8. Arizona: The key is junior Hassan Adams, whom Arizona insiders believe is no more than a 50-50 possibility to return next season. If he's back, the Wildcats have another all-star recruiting class to build around Adams, point guard Mustafa Shakur and bigs Ivan Radenovic and Kirk Walters.
9. Villanova: If juniors Randy Foye, Allan Ray and Curtis Sumpter avoid making misguided leaps to the NBA, every key player will return from the team that nearly beat North Carolina in the Sweet 16. Additionally, a decent recruiting class will address the team's depth issues.
10. Nevada: Sophomore Nick Fazekas is coming back, and despite our harsh criticism of his NCAA Tournament performance, he's good enough -- and the WAC, minus UTEP, will be weak enough -- for Nevada to rack up another 25 wins next season.
11. Texas: LaMarcus Aldridge's hip injury undercut Texas this season, but it should have guaranteed his return -- instead of a jump to the NBA -- next season. With P.J. Tucker, Daniel Gibson and Brad Buckman also back, and another awesome recruiting class coming in, the Longhorns will be loaded.
12. Boston College: The ACC didn't realize it was getting another hoops powerhouse when it added three Big East schools, but here comes Boston College. The Eagles join next season, and as long as Craig Smith doesn't make the worst decision of his life, they could be the ACC's third-best team in 2005-06.
13. West Virginia: Only John Beilein's departure for a better job -- and we're not sure there's a better job available -- would keep this team out of next season's preseason Top 25. And only the rigors of the bigger, deeper Big East would keep the Mountaineers from staying there.
14. Texas Tech: Leading scorer Ronald Ross won't return, but if Bob Knight can replace Andre Emmett, he can replace Ross. And the incoming recruiting class is Knight's best yet at Texas Tech.
15. Memphis: Here we go again. The Tigers have a ton of star recruits, but not all are expected to arrive on campus, and at least one underclassman (Rodney Carney) could enter the NBA Draft. Barring an absolute exodus, though, Memphis will have Sweet 16 talent next season. Just like this season.
16. LSU: Sophomore Brandon Bass and perhaps even freshman Glen Davis could leave for the NBA Draft. If they don't? The Tigers will have the deepest frontcourt in college basketball. LSU's freshman class has a bevy of big men led by elite wing forward Tasmin Mitchell. Give point guard Tack Minor another offseason to mature, and LSU will be scary in 2005-06 -- if Bass and Davis return.
17. George Washington: Assuming Pops Mensah-Bonsu and Mike Hall pull out of the draft -- which they should -- everyone but T.J. Thompson would return, and coach Karl Hobbs continues to recruit at a high level. Next season's new faces will include LSU transfer Regis Koundjia, a 6-8 wing whose skill set matches the GW profile.
18. Kansas: The Jayhawks collapsed in the final month, and that was with Wayne Simien, Keith Langford, Aaron Miles and Michael Lee. That quartet is gone, but next season's freshmen are special.
19. Washington: The Huskies could be a lot better than this -- or a lot worse. Seniors Will Conroy, Tre Simmons and Hakeem Rollins are definitely gone. Junior Nate Robinson is probably gone to the NBA. Junior Brandon Roy and recruit Martell Webster might also enter the draft. Lorenzo Romar recruited a lot more than Webster, but it's too early to say whether Romar will be rebuilding ... or reloading.
20. Illinois: The Illini are as difficult to project as Washington. Nobody expects Deron Williams to return for his senior season, and junior Dee Brown might also follow Williams (and seniors Luther Head and Roger Powell Jr.) out the door. If both junior guards go, Illinois will struggle to stay in the Top 25. If both return, the Top 10 is a possibility.
21. Wake Forest: The Deacons can handle the losses of Taron Downey, Jamaal Levy and Vytas Danelius. They wouldn't be able to handle the additional loss of sophomore Chris Paul, should the point guard leave for the NBA. The ranking here assumes Paul returns.
22. Stanford: Everyone but center Rob Little returns from an NCAA Tournament team. Assuming Dan Grunfeld makes a complete recovery from his knee injury, he would join point guard Chris Hernandez and power forward Matt Haryasz in one of the country's elite star trios.
23. Oklahoma State: A 26-win team in 2004-05, minus five seniors, plus a five-star recruiting class, equals the No. 23 team in the country in 2005-06. It's simple math, people.
24. UCLA: Back-to-back recruiting bonanzas will continue Ben Howland's ahead-of-schedule rebuilding job of the Bruins, who return every key player but Dijon Thompson -- and also will get back Cedric Bozeman, a three-year starter who redshirted this season with a knee injury.
25. Syracuse: Jim Boeheim always does his best work in "rebuilding" years. Next year, without Hakim Warrick, Josh Pace, Craig Forth and most likely Billy Edelin, is a rebuilding year.
Ten teams we meant to leave out
Alabama: The Crimson Tide's outlook improves dramatically if junior Kennedy Winston and recruit Richard Hendrix don't turn pro.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats could use graduating center Jason Maxiell in next season's awesome Big East.
Florida: Without David Lee, the Gators might not drop out of the NCAA Tournament. Without Anthony Roberson? There would be no "might" about it.
Georgia Tech: Five major contributors from the 2004 NCAA runner-up are done, including high-scoring guards B.J. Elder and Will Bynum and center Luke Schenscher, and junior point guard Jarrett Jack will explore his NBA stock.
Michigan State: The Spartans lose three terrific seniors (Alan Anderson, Chris Hill, Kelvin Torbert) and don't bring in a terrific recruiting class.
Mississippi State: The Bulldogs lose Lawrence Roberts and three other starters -- and elite recruit Monta Ellis could enter the NBA Draft.
North Carolina State: Julius Hodge is the only big loss, but that's a huge loss.
Pittsburgh: Center Chris Taft is serious about turning pro. Point guard Carl Krauser might do the same.
Utah: No Andrew Bogut means no spot in our Top 25.
Wisconsin: Unless Brian Butch has an enormous sophomore season, the Badgers will drop.
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