(08-16-2011 09:17 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote: I'm concerned. It seems like there is a history of the top division "culling" it down every once in a while.
I heard Memphis sports talk radio today imply that it would cost an extra 3K to 5K per scholly to pay the "true" cost of college attendance over and above what is being paid now - which translates to an extra 600K to 1 MM. According to the talker, this would be enough to get some programs to consider moving down.
Personally, I think the loss in revenue from moving down would be greater than the increased cost of staying up.
Who knows . . .
Though there is a history of "culling" you have to remember the I-A/I-AA split was based on a series of promises to the I-AA. They would have equal or greater access to post-season as I-A. The I-A could play up to four I-AA a season. There would be a TV deal for the I-AA that would get them some exposure though not as much as I-A. There would cost savings.
Since then bowl licensing was de-regulated and now there are far fewer post-season opportunities per school in FCS than in FBS.
The NCAA for a time ruled that no FCS/I-AA game could count toward bowl eligibility, then it became one in four years, then it became one per year.
The NCAA lost a lawsuit that got them out of the TV business.
The gap in scholarships has narrowed slightly.
Given that and the investment made, any cull will be litigated and odds favor those being booted. The Sun Belt could likely prove $9 million in damages annually just in reduced game guarantees and that would be trebled to $27 million per year. Start throwing in other financial losses and it would be one of the biggest anti-trust cases ever lost by the NCAA.
Could schools be priced out? That's more likely. If I were advising the Sun Belt, the first thing I'd do if the stipend rule were created and adopted is follow the Patriot League model and develop a league wide financial need assessment and base the amount of the stipend on financial need. Family is poor get 100% of the stipend. Family vacations in Fiji, get 0%. People in between get a percentage based on need. That could reduce your outlay by 20% to 50%.
Schools have to make choices all the time. There are a number of assistant coaches who make more than any Sun Belt, WAC, MAC, or CUSA head coach. Maybe the smart move is to figure out the best coach you can hire for $150,000 to $300,000 and not try to keep up. Maybe you look at indoor practice facilities and say, "We know we will miss a couple practices due to weather but the real purpose of building one is the fear that some kid will choose a school that has one rather than us and for that many million dollars, we are willing to lose that kid."
Schools have to make hard choices. Pacific was at the top level 44 years and went away. Wichita State spent 41 years at the top level of football and pulled the plug. Fullerton spent 17 years at the top level and dropped football.
Unless you and your conference mates are responsible in spending, you follow that path.
In the past few years we've seen Birmingham Southern and Centenary reclassify to Division III and UNO go to Division II.
Maryland is in a pickle right now. They've spent to keep up with the ACC and they've exhausted their financial reserves
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/a-c...ory_1.html
The whole business requires understanding your situation. You can spend loads of money because everyone else is building those or everyone else is paying that much or you can stick with what you can afford. Alabama generates $245 a minute and you expect to keep pace generating $38 a minute? You could nearly run every Sun Belt program just on what Texas generates in a year.
Schools are spending money to match what Alabama, Texas and Ohio State do but most of the spending has no return on it. Did Mack Brown become a better coach at $5 million per year than he was at $3 million? The $3 million Brown went to the BCS Championship. The $5 million one had a losing season.
The system can be explained simply. Mega School installs $4000 leather chairs with stitched team logo and built in chargers for iPhones in the locker room (not making this up, I sat in one in the Sporting KC locker room, they are SWEET). Coach of Big School hears about it and is immediately convinced that gives Mega School an advantage and he needs them to keep up (never mind that he loses most recruiting battles against Mega). Athletic Director thinks its silly and a waste of money, winning at Big is about getting and red-shirting the players Mega doesn't want but fellow conference member Large State does want. Most of the battles against Large State tend to come down to geography and how well the kid likes the assistant recruiting them. Coach at Big tells a couple boosters and soon the message boards are up in arms about how Mega has this advantage and will kill them in recruiting (which they already do). So now the AD sees that if the Coach doesn't win, the finger is going to point at him for failing to give Coach the tools to win. He cuts a check for $200,000 to get fifty of those chairs. Rinse and repeat. Because that is how budget decisions are being made.
Unless you have the courage to say we are who we are and live within your means, sooner or later you go broke and you go under. You might get a few good years out of it but eventually the system breaks. The other choice is to live within your means, take your lumps against those who are better off but you still get to play the game.