Bill Marsh
1st String
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I Root For: UConn
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RE: Old School Realignment Question: The lost power conference of the northeast
(08-07-2011 11:00 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote: Bill Marsh Wrote:On the NFL side, Green Bay has the entire state of Wisconsin as its fan base. Here, fans travel hours to attend a pro game each week. Are they in direct competition with the Badgers?
Truthfully, no, they are not. They are 2.5 hours apart.
Bill Mrash Wrote:And when are teams in the same market? You've mentioned Michigan/Detroit & Washington/Seattle, but what about Florida/Jacksonville?
1:30 hours apart.
Bill Marsh Wrote:Texas A&M/Houston?
1:45 hours apart.
Bill Marsh Wrote:Georgia/Atlanta?
1:30 hours apart.
Bill Marsh Wrote:Notre Dame/Indianapolis?
3:00 hours apart.
Bill Marsh Wrote:LSU/New Orleans?
1:30 hours apart.
Sensing a trend here?
Bill Marsh Wrote:Are these all so far apart that they're not in direct competition, not competing for fans in the same market?
Yes, that is precisely what I'm saying. But don't take my word for it. Rather let's defer to the folks who measure markets professionally.
That is why New Orleans and Baton Rouge are listed as two separate media markets; as are College Station/Houston, Gainesville/Jacksonville, Athens/Atlanta, and South Bend/Indianapolis. And for the record, Ann Arbor and Detroit are also separate media markets but I was being generous (a lot of good that did me).
For example, to use your list, Tulane was once a major power that drew well. Now the Saints are the kings of NOLA. The rest of Louisiana's clearly did not though (as you correctly asserted).
The same is true of Houston in Houston and SMU in Dallas. Once the NFL took hold, those schools went by the wayside.
I can't believe that this is even being debated. Are Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, etc., all just coincidences?
Bill Marsh Wrote:There are others.
Okay. Who?
Bill Marsh Wrote:But ignored here is the fact that the market for a state flagship is the entire state.
No, it wasn't. In fact I agree with that entirely. I just don't think it is a coincidence that almost all of the NCAA teams that have to compete directly in market against NFL teams struggle at the gate. And in the rare instances that the NCAA team in or near an NFL market does succeed, that usually comes at the expense of the local NFL team (who almost has to be a perrenial loser - ala the Detroit Lions).
There are only so many discretionary dollars to go around.
Quote:How is Texas not in direct competition with the Cowboys for fan interest despite the distance & 2 different metro areas?
Because the University of Texas is itself located in a city with a large metro population (42nd largest DMA). Also, as you accurately pointed out, they have the rest of Texas from which to draw. Houston, SMU, TCU, etc., have no such luxury.
Bill Marsh Wrote:Then we have the fact that college football is almost always played on Saturdays when no NFL games are being played & NFL games are almost always played on Sundays when no college games are played?
Because the war for attention extends far beyond what happens on three hours each Saturday and Sunday.
Bill Marsh Wrote:Are football fans unable to watch their sport more than once a week? Are they unable to attend more than one game per weekend while fans in other sports attend multiple games? Can football fans not root for BOTH a pro team AND a college team?
Of course they can, but there are only so many discretionary dollars to go around.
To use your example of Philadelphia. Seriously, by percentage, if given the choice of a Penn State national championship or an Eagles Super Bowl, how many Philadelphians would choose the former over the latter?
Or I can ask it another way. If you gave the average Philadelphia sports fan the choice of a ticket to the BCS national championship game (featuring Penn State) or a ticket to the Super Bowl (featuring the Eagles), how many would choose the former over the latter?
As someone who has previously lived in the "City of Brotherly Love" (and Cherry Hill, NJ) and still makes it out there multiple times per year, I would guess that less than five percent would pick the PSU tix over the Eagles tix and that is probably being generous.
And that is the core of my argument. It is nearly impossible for any college football program - flagship or otherwise - to compete directly against the higher level version of the game. It is the same reason why you don't usually see minor league baseball teams flourish in major league cities. However those minor league teams often do much, much better in more rural areas.
I would sincerely be interested in your answer to that question. How many Philadelphians would prioritize Penn State over the Eagles?
Now ask that same question to the average person from Harrisburg (79 DMA). Or Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (69). Or Allentown (70). Or York (105). Or Lancaster (115). Or Reading (133). Or Erie (166). Or Johnstown (184). Or Meadville (244). Or State College (249). Or Altoona (255). Or Williamsport (259).
That's the difference.
Certainly your opinion is the conventional wisdom, so you'll have a lot of support for it. I think an oft overlooked factor is that most of the land grant flagships are by their very nature & histories located outside of metropolises. these are the very schools that typically have the largest on campus student bodies, largest alumni bases, & the largest supoort among non-alumni because of their prominence & identity as the "state's school."
So, are they getting big attendance because they're not in competiton with the NFL or is that just a coincidence. I'm on the coincidence side of the argument. Just an accident of history. Since most of our population lives in or near cities, they obviously have to be drawing from those very same populations for the fans & that's where their alumni are. You cite BC & Miami, but as private schools, they shouldn't even be in the conversation because it's not an apples to apples comparison.
If lack of NFL competition, then how do we explain schools like Michigan (111,825), Washington (66,264), Cal (57,873), Miami (52,575), & Pitt (52,165)?
How do we explain the fact that a school like UCLA draws the same 60,000 fans today as they did 25 years ago when they were in direct competition with the NFL Rams?
For every Minnesota that doesn't draw in an NFL city, there are 5 more Indiana's who don't draw either despite being located in a college town out in the sticks, far from NFL competition.
BTW, I don't consider the travel times you listed to be significant. Many fans - both college & pro routinely - travel farther than that to games. By excluding teams that are within a couple of hours of a pro city, the deck is being stacked so that schools who are drawing fans from as little as an hour away (half way between) who are clearly within the metro area are eliminated from the conversation.
The bottom line here is the fact that flagships draw big attendance numbers wherever they are. However, they are by and large not in big cities. That more than NFL competition explains attendance.
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2011 04:53 PM by Bill Marsh.)
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