The following was taken from Lance's blog and seems germane for this board:

Ahead for UC

3 road games in next 10 days....Syracuse, Notre Dame, St John's...combined record 41-8 (.837)

UC record: 16-1/Big East: 3-1.........14 games remaining: 8 road/6home

If UC goes 7-7 the rest of the way they would have a winning Big East record (10-8) and be 23-8 heading into the Big East tournament.

RPI....record...opponent
2.... ...(17-0) @ Syracuse
14......(14-3) @ Notre Dame
15.... .(10-5) @ St. John's
97......(10-6) Rutgers
5........(16-1) @ Pittsburgh
244... (6-10) @ DePaul
15... .(10-5) St. John's
40.... (13-3) Louisville
94.... (11-6) @ Providence
7...... (12-5) @ Georgetown
16.... (10-4) West Virginia
6...... (13-2) Connecticut
75.....(12-5) @ Marquette
7...... (12-5) Georgetown

Combined record of remaining opponents: 166-60 (.735)

http://www.700wlw.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

I'm dreading the game at Providence. They play well at home and score a ton of points. They lost to SJU and PITT by a combined six points on their floor. This is also the next game after UL, which always brings a Crosstown Shootout type intensity level. We better be ready for this one. I have a feeling the outcome of this one will have a big impact on NCAA tournament or NIT.

If I had to bet on the number of games they win, although they have gone down hill in the past once they got to conference play, I would say they win 9 more games and finish (12-6) 25-6. They would be ranked around 10 heading into conf. tourney and would have at least a 4 seed set which would be awesome and is really possible. The future of UC bball and football is great. It is great to be a bearcat.

(01-13-2011 05:09 PM)Bearcat04 Wrote:  I'm dreading the game at Providence. They play well at home and score a ton of points. They lost to SJU and PITT by a combined six points on their floor. This is also the next game after UL, which always brings a Crosstown Shootout type intensity level. We better be ready for this one. I have a feeling the outcome of this one will have a big impact on NCAA tournament or NIT.

Agreed. The Providence game always scares me. UC seems to always play.. different whenever they play the Friars.

RPI....record...opponent
2.... ...(17-0) @ Syracuse - W
14......(14-3) @ Notre Dame - L
15.... .(10-5) @ St. John's - L
97......(10-6) Rutgers - W
5........(16-1) @ Pittsburgh - L
244... (6-10) @ DePaul - W
15... .(10-5) St. John's - W
40.... (13-3) Louisville - L
94.... (11-6) @ Providence - W
7...... (12-5) @ Georgetown - W
16.... (10-4) West Virginia - W
6...... (13-2) Connecticut - L
75.....(12-5) @ Marquette - L
7...... (12-5) Georgetown - W
-------------------

That's how I see it right now. Finish 8 - 6

haha sorry but I think its funny that you have them beating Syracuse and then losing to ND and St. Johns. I guess that would be typical of past but if they win @ Syracuse i say watch out the rest of the season for good things.

(01-13-2011 05:27 PM)natibeast21 Wrote:  haha sorry but I think its funny that you have them beating Syracuse and then losing to ND and St. Johns. I guess that would be typical of past but if they win @ Syracuse i say watch out the rest of the season for good things.

3 straight road games against very tough opponents. I can see them getting up for Syracuse and matching up well against them but I think they just get worn down mentally. I'm not saying they WILL lose 2 of 3, but I think their best shot at getting a W in the next 3 games will be this Saturday.

Providence getting completely dominated at WVU tonight, down 56-24 with 17 minutes to go in 2nd half.

cincinnati is going to need alot more out of Thomas to do that. His frequent foul trouble will kill us if he doesn't get out of that funk. We need some strong dunks out of him to finish if that is what it takes. UC will need to be hitting on all cylinders to do this.

Thomas needs to average 8-10 points and 6-8 rebounds per game over the remainder of the season for us to be effective against the upper tier of the BEAST. I hope he can do this but his output in the last two games has been atrocious.

(01-13-2011 08:10 PM)ctipton Wrote:  Providence getting completely dominated at WVU tonight, down 56-24 with 17 minutes to go in 2nd half.

Yup - Keno and his entire team looked absolutely lost last night. Huggs has his guys playing very well right now.

This schedule is a b!tch. Aside from maybe Rutgers, most of these games I'd give us no better than a 60% chance to win. Honestly, the level of competition is so good, I could see us winning anywhere from 4-8 games the rest of the way. Impossible to tell. 4 and we'd be way out of the tourney. 8 and we r in with a great seed IMO.

What a difference a 4-game swing can make. This team has shown that they can compete with anyone. But we've got to win the close ones. A couple of close losses and we will be sitting home again in March.

(01-14-2011 12:16 PM)bearcatjim Wrote:  This schedule is a b!tch. Aside from maybe Rutgers, most of these games I'd give us no better than a 60% chance to win. Honestly, the level of competition is so good, I could see us winning anywhere from 4-8 games the rest of the way. Impossible to tell. 4 and we'd be way out of the tourney. 8 and we r in with a great seed IMO.

What a difference a 4-game swing can make. This team has shown that they can compete with anyone. But we've got to win the close ones. A couple of close losses and we will be sitting home again in March.

You're absolutely correct. UC needs to win the close games but also not lose leads and drop games to teams when they had the game pretty much in hand (St. Johns/Seton Hall last year). This team has proven to be able to make free throws and not commit turnovers in the last 2-3 minutes of games to protect leads. Let's hope they continue this trend throughout the rest of this season.

Well........

Notre Dame and their usually prolific 3 point shooting team shot 19% on 3's against a hot shooting Marquette team that hit 12-16 three's at one point. You just can't predict these things. Who knows what will happen.

I was worried about Stokes when we played Villanova, seeing how Fisher was shooting like 20% or so on 3's for the season and Stokes near the Big East leaders in 3 point shooting percentage. Go figure.........Stokes barely makes a shot and Fisher goes for 20 in the first half alone, drilling a bunch of 3's. You just can't predict these things.

The only thing that is constant is defense and effort. Officials affect it too, because they can get into the head of your team and make them passive or frustrated and affect the flow of the game.

Hopefully the consistent defense continues and we get hot at the right times. We really haven't shot it that well in Big East play yet. I'm looking for one of those nights and hopefully it happens on this stretch of road games.

(01-14-2011 01:40 PM)Vottomatic Wrote:  Well........

Notre Dame and their usually prolific 3 point shooting team shot 19% on 3's against a hot shooting Marquette team that hit 12-16 three's at one point. You just can't predict these things. Who knows what will happen.

I was worried about Stokes when we played Villanova, seeing how Fisher was shooting like 20% or so on 3's for the season and Stokes near the Big East leaders in 3 point shooting percentage. Go figure.........Stokes barely makes a shot and Fisher goes for 20 in the first half alone, drilling a bunch of 3's. You just can't predict these things.

The only thing that is constant is defense and effort. Officials affect it too, because they can get into the head of your team and make them passive or frustrated and affect the flow of the game.

Hopefully the consistent defense continues and we get hot at the right times. We really haven't shot it that well in Big East play yet. I'm looking for one of those nights and hopefully it happens on this stretch of road games.

Absolutely agree with this. You really can't predict what will happen game to game, especially in one like the BE where nearly every team top to bottom has a good chance of beating every other team.

But yea, I hope hoping UC's defense can stay as consistent as it has been. I think we are the best in conference of causing more turnovers from teams than allowing assists (I can't remember where I read that). Hopefully the offense catches up!

2.... ...(17-0) @ Syracuse L

Now for my predictions - I hate to do this, but I think UC is in trouble. And despite these predictions, I think UC is a better team this year, but will once again fail to make the NCAA tournament. I think the weak OOC schedule really hurt them in preparing for the Big East. And UC does not play well on the road, and they have some tough road games ahead.

14......(14-3) @ Notre Dame L UC can't win at their place
15.... .(10-5) @ St. John's L They appear to be really good
97......(10-6) Rutgers W a team UC should beat
5........(16-1) @ Pittsburgh L no way for UC to win this one
244... (6-10) @ DePaul W UC should win
15... .(10-5) St. John's W I give UC the home win
40.... (13-3) Louisville L UC can beat UofL, but I don't think they will
94.... (11-6) @ Providence L UC always seems to struggle with them and it's away
7...... (12-5) @ Georgetown L see Providence
16.... (10-4) West Virginia L WVU is getting better, but UC can beat them
6...... (13-2) Connecticut L Better coach wins
75.....(12-5) @ Marquette L UC always struggles at Marquette
7...... (12-5) Georgetown L UC could win this one

19-12 unless they get a few of the 'could wins' also, which would put them at 22-23 wins..

(01-17-2011 11:51 AM)bearcatfan Wrote:  2.... ...(17-0) @ Syracuse L

Now for my predictions - I hate to do this, but I think UC is in trouble. And despite these predictions, I think UC is a better team this year, but will once again fail to make the NCAA tournament. I think the weak OOC schedule really hurt them in preparing for the Big East. And UC does not play well on the road, and they have some tough road games ahead.

14......(14-3) @ Notre Dame L UC can't win at their place
15.... .(10-5) @ St. John's L They appear to be really good
97......(10-6) Rutgers W a team UC should beat
5........(16-1) @ Pittsburgh L no way for UC to win this one
244... (6-10) @ DePaul W UC should win
15... .(10-5) St. John's W I give UC the home win
40.... (13-3) Louisville L UC can beat UofL, but I don't think they will
94.... (11-6) @ Providence L UC always seems to struggle with them and it's away
7...... (12-5) @ Georgetown L see Providence
16.... (10-4) West Virginia L WVU is getting better, but UC can beat them
6...... (13-2) Connecticut L Better coach wins
75.....(12-5) @ Marquette L UC always struggles at Marquette
7...... (12-5) Georgetown L UC could win this one

19-12 unless they get a few of the 'could wins' also, which would put them at 22-23 wins..

Is it too much to expect that we will upset "better" teams more often than we will be upset by "worse" teams? That's probably the key for most "bubble" teams. I still like our chances; most of the prognosticators on here are just assuming that we'll lose all of our games to (supposedly) better teams. I think this team is good enough to do some damage in the top half of the BE; 'Nova & "Cuse were just the wrong games.

Yeah, I'm having one of those days where I'm feeling a bit less hopeful about UC's chances to make the tournament.

Our big men suck and one of them is not full strength. Not good.

Chalked all 3 of these roadies up as L's a month ago. Not sure what changed to make folks view at Nova, at Cuse or at ND as games UC should win.

Not a great team. But a pretty good team that can play very well in stretches when its shots fall. Problem is pretty good is only good enough in leagues not named the Big East.

I was thinking about this a little more and here is my reasoning behind why I only think UC will win a few more games this year.

This is a much better team than Cronin has had, but they still lack a dominant inside game. And it does not just have to be Gates. UC is not getting the production they need from their forwards. Do they even have forwards?

Bishop is practically useless on offense. He plays good defense, but he should be inside banging for rebounds more. Instead he is mostly still content to throw up a 3 point attempt with an occasional shot from the lane.

Wilks tries, and he plays hard, but he does not have the weight to throw around with the bigger players.

Thomas can rebound when he wants to, but he did not want to against Syracuse.

They need an Eric Hicks type player that will go in and challenge for rebounds, and they don't have that player.

I think Jackson could be that type of player eventually.

I still think it comes down to who is coaching UC's big men. I still think UC is lacking in this area.