Analyzing UC vs. Villanova
Villanova with a 44 home game winning streak. Streak's are meant to be broken, aren't they? Hehehe.
Keys:
Shut down leading scorer, senior SF Corey Stokes, averaging 17 ppg and shooting 47% from three point range. I assume Bishop gets this assignment. I can't believe Stokes is already a senior. I remember when he signed with 'Nova. Gotta keep him from going off on three's. He will usually attempt 8 to 11 three pointers per game, accounting for most of his shots. Not really a drive to the basket guy.
Sophomore PG, Maalik Wayns, averages nearly 6 assists per game. But also nearly 3 turnovers per game. He is a drive to the basket type guard. Most of his shots will be close in, hoping to either score, draw a foul, or pass to an open man, like a true PG should do. He's shooting 19.6% from three point range. He attempts about 11 shots per game and only about 3 will be three pointers. We have to stop his penetration.
Down low they have 6'-10 sophomore Mouphtaou Yarou who knows his role well. Hit the glass (7.2 rpg) and finish (8.5 ppg). Unlike Ibrahima, Yarou has never attempted a three point shot in his two seasons. He does block shots and cause problems down low with his size. Senior 6'-8" PF, Antonio Pena, also knows his role, averaging 9.9 ppg, and 7.5 rpg. He doesn't shoot 3's, and hangs around the low post doing what he's supposed to do. It should be a pretty good matchup with Yancy (6'-9") and Thomas (6'-11") battling them down low. Hopefully Thomas brings his A game because he can become non existent at times.
Finally, 6'-1" SG, senior Corey Fisher, averages nearly 15 ppg and 5 assists per game. He is struggling from three point range this year only shooting it 24%. He attempts about 4 shots per game from 3 point range while attempting nearly 12 shots per game overall. So he does drive to the basket. Not much firepower from the outside beyond Stokes.
Essentially it is the Corey (Stokes) and Corey (Fisher) show, with Wayns running the show and wreaking havoc at times. The low post is solid, but not flashy. The perimeter shooting relies on Stokes. But the guards know how to score in a variety of ways. They go about 8 deep with mainly Dominic Cheek giving them points off the bench at a clip of 7.9 ppg and shooting 38% from the perimeter. The other two bench players are mostly time fillers and role players. So it's mainly up to the starters.
In Villanova's lone loss, at Tennessee back in late November, 'Nova struggled from the perimeter shooting 19% on 21 attempts. They got outrebounded 36-31. Fisher and Stokes combined to go 4-19 from the field. 53 fouls were called in that game with Fisher, Stokes, and Wayns all fouling out.
'Nova hasn't exactly played a difficult schedule. The only name teams they've played were beating UCLA in Philly by 12 points back in November, and beating rival Temple by 4 points three games ago. They've handled Rutgers and South Florida soundly but they didn't pound them.
'Nova does lead the Big East in FT% at 76%. But honestly, UC and 'Nova are neck in neck in most other Big East team stat categories. They mirror eachother statistically, but not really on the court. UC is going to go down low to Yancy more than they go down low to their post players. They are definitely more guard oriented than we are, lead by their 2 senior guards and soph PG. We have the advantage depth-wise. Not sure they've seen a team come at them defensively like we're going to bring, with our starters and Goon Squad.
Should be a very interesting and competitive game. Hopefully we wear them down. I think UC has more scoring options and potential for someone to get hot if others are off the mark. If Stokes and Fisher struggle, 'Nova tends to struggle. UC can have Kilpatrick or Davis get hot off the bench and cause opponents trouble.
Gonna be a close call. UC, if they play their game, has a chance to end Villanova's home winning streak.
|