There is no doubt what this political party in New York stands for.

Alan Abramowitz, an Emory Poli Sci Professor, created a statistical model a few years ago that helps translate the final Gallup Poll results on the generic ballot into seats.

The Abramowitz model uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats won with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

Applied to 2010, the Abramowitz model shows that a "dead-even" contest between the Republicans and Democrats on the generic ballot just before the election will translate into a 32-seat Republican gain.

To pick up the 40 seats necessary to win the House, the Republicans would need only a lead of at least 3 percentage points on the final Gallup Poll.

If the Republican margin is 7 or 8 percentage points, the Republicans would see something like the 54 seats they won in 1994.

As of yesterday, the generic ballot shows the Republicans with a 53-42 advantage based upon a high turnout, and the Republicans with a 56-39 advantage on a low turnout.

This means a Republican pickup of about 60-65 seats in the House.

On the night of November 2, 2010, its going to be fun to watch Pelosi's surrender, the ranting, raving, and foaming at the mouth of Keith Olbermann and Rachel Madcow, and the end of the Obama Congressional Railroad.

(10-20-2010 10:18 AM)gsloth Wrote:  There is no doubt what this political party in New York stands for.

He reminds me of the guy on the Pringles potato chip can.

Unless something massively unexpected happens (always a good out), I predict a Republican pickup of between 63 to 72 house seats. If you watch the Real Clear Politics charts, daily republicans are surging ahead in congressional races. However, the Democrats seem to have stabilized and are getting somewhat stronger than earlier in the Senate and governors races.

The senate will be interesting to me because there are a few blue dog types who got elected in 2006 and will be standing for reelection in 2012. If the blue dogs in the house who went along with "stimulus" and Obamacare get whacked hard this time, then those senate blue dogs may think long and hard before kowtowing to the party line in the next congress. That would be a considerable improvement over the current congress, and could be the best thing to come out of this year's elections.

If the blue dogs grew some backbone, and allied with some of the less doctrinaire republicans to put together some actual solutions that made sense, instead of favor-laden monstrosities like "stimulus" and Obamacare, we might actually get somewhere.

(10-24-2010 10:06 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The senate will be interesting to me because there are a few blue dog types who got elected in 2006 and will be standing for reelection in 2012. If the blue dogs in the house who went along with "stimulus" and Obamacare get whacked hard this time, then those senate blue dogs may think long and hard before kowtowing to the party line in the next congress. That would be a considerable improvement over the current congress, and could be the best thing to come out of this year's elections.

If the blue dogs grew some backbone, and allied with some of the less doctrinaire republicans to put together some actual solutions that made sense, instead of favor-laden monstrosities like "stimulus" and Obamacare, we might actually get somewhere.

Since Harry Reid is pretty much gone, the new Senate "Majority Leader" will likely be either Durban or Schumer.

It ought to be interesting to see how a Blue Dog up for election in 2012 gets along with either Schumer or Durban, who are a couple of Hard Core Liberals not used to hearing the word "No"...

Ellen Cohen, who represents the Texas House in District 134 (Rice and West U area) lost re-election by 725 votes.



Remember she was one of the Legislators that signed the letter urging that UH be admitted to the Big 12 and was completely ignorant to Rice's interests on the matter.

(11-03-2010 08:39 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Ellen Cohen, who represents the Texas House in District 134 (Rice and West U area) lost re-election by 725 votes.



Remember she was one of the Legislators that signed the letter urging that UH be admitted to the Big 12 and was completely ignorant to Rice's interests on the matter.

I would like to think that the angry Rice vote made the difference in that election!

(09-29-2010 01:38 PM)tanq_tonic Wrote:  In other words: the libtard we like is ineffective

Bump.

Heh. I think you are thinking that my moniker is Optimistic Owl. It isnt. Perhaps go back and look over and double check that conversation you are having with *him*.

I would assume that based on your 'analysis' of the SCOTUS case and the apparent understanding that you think that "OptimisticOwl == tanq_tonic" that fact checking seems to be somewhat of an issue with you? If so this is going to be a fun series of sessions with you.....

But as you so insightfully noted, in that other thread

Quote:Don't let facts get in the way of a good story though.

*That* comment is pretty rich at this point, isnt it?

(07-01-2019 09:59 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Heh. I think you are thinking that my moniker is Optimistic Owl. It isnt. Perhaps go back and look over and double check that conversation you are having with *him*.

I would assume that based on your 'analysis' of the SCOTUS case and the apparent understanding that you think that "OptimisticOwl == tanq_tonic" that fact checking seems to be somewhat of an issue with you? If so this is going to be a fun series of sessions with you.....

But as you so insightfully noted, in that other thread

Quote:Don't let facts get in the way of a good story though.

*That* comment is pretty rich at this point, isnt it?

He only had to go back 9 years to find the wrong person.

But heck, has anybody ever seen us in the room at the same time? Maybe you are my secret identity.

(07-01-2019 10:03 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(07-01-2019 09:59 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Heh. I think you are thinking that my moniker is Optimistic Owl. It isnt. Perhaps go back and look over and double check that conversation you are having with *him*.

I would assume that based on your 'analysis' of the SCOTUS case and the apparent understanding that you think that "OptimisticOwl == tanq_tonic" that fact checking seems to be somewhat of an issue with you? If so this is going to be a fun series of sessions with you.....

But as you so insightfully noted, in that other thread

Quote:Don't let facts get in the way of a good story though.

*That* comment is pretty rich at this point, isnt it?

He only had to go back 9 years to find the wrong person.

Kind of funny, to be honest. Maybe to them we all look alike.

(07-01-2019 10:04 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(07-01-2019 10:03 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(07-01-2019 09:59 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Heh. I think you are thinking that my moniker is Optimistic Owl. It isnt. Perhaps go back and look over and double check that conversation you are having with *him*.

I would assume that based on your 'analysis' of the SCOTUS case and the apparent understanding that you think that "OptimisticOwl == tanq_tonic" that fact checking seems to be somewhat of an issue with you? If so this is going to be a fun series of sessions with you.....

But as you so insightfully noted, in that other thread

Quote:Don't let facts get in the way of a good story though.

*That* comment is pretty rich at this point, isnt it?

He only had to go back 9 years to find the wrong person.

Kind of funny, to be honest. Maybe to them we all look alike.

\
Well, we definitely all march in lockstep with the other jack-booted thugs.

So OO, was the use of libtard 9 years ago, OK?

Gotta love the search function - pretty hilarious thing to try and dig up, IMO. But it is a good reminder that the Quad has gotten a bit lonely over the years...

When a person feels the need to equate anyone whom they disagree with as '(whatever)-tard', 'ignorant', '12 year old on wikipedia', then *they* can't discern between "tanq_tonic" and "OptimisticOwl" -- the irony factor (to this 12 year old, at least) is truly impressive. I mean, actually near mind-boggling.

As I said, gave me a pretty hearty chuckle. Must be my sicko white Christian male privilege bubbling into open view.

(07-01-2019 10:40 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  So OO, was the use of libtard 9 years ago, OK?

Gotta love the search function - pretty hilarious thing to try and dig up, IMO. But it is a good reminder that the Quad has gotten a bit lonely over the years...

Yes, it was interesting the number of liberals who could not stand the heat (or maybe could not stand people disagreeing with them) who have emigrated to friendlier places. I presume they can discuss conservatives in those places and get reaffirmation of the rightness of their thinking.

No, libtard was not OK nine years ago, any more than the inferences now that conservatives are racist nazis. Maybe we all need to lean on stereotypes a little less. Do you disagree?

I was amused by his references to people who had not the intellectual capacity to understand him. This is a RICE board. Odd he would think anybody who doesn't agree with him is a hillbilly. That does seem typical of a certain group of liberals - the ones who would think we conservatives all do meth and drink Natty Light (and rail against certain groups).

Sorry to disappoint.