(04-20-2010 02:21 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Subbing MD for Pitt does nothing to change the BE situation. In your scenario, the ACC would likely just turn around and add UConn, Syracuse or Pitt.

That’s exactly right. I think the only way MD does not get a serious look is if they’ve signaled to the B10 that they’re not interested. MD is just too much of an ideal fit on paper to be ignored. But knowing little about the relationship between MD and the ACC, I have no idea how comfortable MD is in their present arrangement. As to the B-East, there are a number of outcomes that can be gamed, but, at least from my perspective, what seems common is that the Conference will suffer a perceived downgrade in football and that the popular perception that the conference is largely basketball centric will be reinforced. There may even come a day when the "basketball" schools in the Conference are interested in initiating “the split”. Of course it’s hard enough to predict the B10’s moves; hypothesizing on how the other major conferences will react is pure speculation. However, I bet that the ACC-- if they could find a way to make it work financially-- would give serious consideration to adding (if available) Cuse, UConn, and Pitt (given how lean their footprint is stretched in the northeast). Outside of the B-East, the conference that I think is most affected by the realignment is the B12. Loosing NE to the B10 and CO to the PAC10 (which seems very likely at this point) will result in a profound downgrade. By taking NE, I think the B10 is eventually (but perhaps inadvertently) forcing TX into the PAC10. Though the idea of a TX verses Penn State Rose Bowl would have the network executives salivating like hyenas on the Serengeti- which is also good for the B10.

(04-20-2010 03:44 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(04-20-2010 01:22 PM)Blitz Wrote:  ND is fundamentally a Midwestern school with a national audience because of its Irish and Catholic heritage. But let’s be honest, the cachet that ND enjoys is a really a superregional as opposed to a truly “national” phenomenon, which region originates in Kansas City and stretches to Boston, encompassing every major metropolitan area in between (throughout MO, IL, WI, IN, MI, OH, PA, MD, NJ, NY, CT, and MA). Outside of that range, ND’s influence wanes substantially. That is not to say there is no interest, only that it is limited. ND benefits from the same double-edged sword that the Big Ten wields, in that both interests enjoy somewhat of a national fan base because the top export from the Midwest over the past three decades has been people. That said- it is not a sustainable audience outside of the core footprint. It’s not like anyone is dying the Sacramento River green- at least not purposefully. Historically, ND resisted conference affiliation with the B10 because the B10’s primary market was bounded to the east by Cleveland (Philadelphia with the inclusion of Penn State) and did not provide reliable coverage to at least a quarter of its core fan base. By expanding into the northeast, the B10 is largely monopolizing ND’s entire footprint. The B10 has maintained a symbiotic working relationship with ND on the basis, I presume, of a goodwill understanding that ND may one day become a conference mate. What if, however, the B10 went to 16, including four northeastern teams (say Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and UConn; and NE out west) permanently closing all further expansion scenarios, and then decided that the “goodwill” relationship with ND was no longer advantageous? In fact with ND then only regarded as the Conference’s primary regional competitor, it would largely be in the B10’s best interest (including the interests of its new members) to discontinue scheduling regular games against ND. Who would ND schedule without Purdue, NW, MI/MI St, OH, Pitt, Rutgers, etc…? Where would they go? The ACC? The PAC10? Really? If ND fans can’t tolerate the thought of joining the B10, how will they react to the prospect of playing over half their games in the Deep South or on the West Coast? So, on one hand ND holds the prospect of maintaining its historic rivalries within its primary footprint and also gobs and gobs of cash which could be used to further its primary mission (which contrary to public opinion is not football, it’s academics), on the other hand ND faces the daunting challenge of remaining relevant and fiscally competitive as an independent trapped behind enemy lines. IMO… the B10 has all of the pieces in place, and is just a few bold moves away from putting ND in checkmate. I think that all of the bravado coming from ND is intended to probe whether the B10 has the conviction to fulfill the threat. If the B10 signals that it is expanding to anything less than 16 (unless one of those teams is TX), then a stalemate ensues. With that in mind, the B10 will continue to publicize (and strategically leak) threatening rhetoric about a 16 team conference. The $64,000 dollar question remains for ND: deep down, under all of the rhetoric, does the B10 have the stones to go through with it? After the dust finally settles, I think Rutgers, Pitt, MO, NE and ND will be joining the B10 (however, I would not be at all surprised if the B10 does not throw everyone a curveball by substituting MD for Pitt).

Very good analysis of Notre Dame's influence. It's annual games in California make it relevant on the west coast, but it's primary base of power is in the midwest and northeast.

Thanks.

(04-19-2010 11:11 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Well then the Big 10 was lying to us when they said that they wouldn't cripple any conference and that it would survive.

Think about this for a minute, what is the Big 10 doing that is questionable? Absolutely nothing. No one will put a gun to Cuse, UConn, Rutgers, or Pitt's head to make them join the Big 10. If they leave it is because they wanted to leave. Just like Miami, BC, and Va. Tech wanted to leave for the ACC. Just like USF, UC, and UL wanted to leave for the BE. That's life.

(04-20-2010 09:23 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2010 07:54 AM)JunkYardCard Wrote:  I suspect that ND can afford the kinds of financial analysts and media market analysts it needs to determine if the Big Ten is bluffing - at least from the standpoint of money. I guess it's possible that the Big Ten may not want the Big East schools in as a matter of principle even if the money is right.

I really think this 16-team conference crap will prove to be a lot better on paper than it is on the field.

I don't think the Big Ten is bluffing in the sense that it's going to expand and affect the BE. What's unclear is how many BE schools is it going to take. IMHO, I think that Nebraska (national name), Missouri (solid set of home market households) and Rutgers (gamble on the NY/NJ market) are the closest things to locks for the Big Ten. When you look at the 5 leaked schools that were studied, they included perfect proxies for Nebraska. Missouri is Nebraska's equivalent academically. Nebraska has a small market, but Pitt wouldn't add any BTN households at all. Notre Dame is a national football name. All 3 of those schools have been determined to be potential moneymakers for the conference and apprear to be acceptable to the conference, which means that the Big Ten would be insane to pass the Huskers up. Nebraska would join the Big Ten in a heartbeat (and note that the current Penn State president was the former chancellor of Nebraska while Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez, who has been one of the Big Ten's mouthpieces on expansion matters, played for the Huskers). The Big Ten's presidents care about markets but they don't have tunnel vision - brand name football programs are what ultimately make money for the conference.

The question then becomes whether the Big Ten is willing to add on 2 more BE schools. If they are (or at least give provide a very good financial case that it would be worth it), then that's what's going to put ND in a pickle. If the Big Ten adds on Pitt and Syracuse, then it goes up to 16 schools and would lock ND out of any chance for Big Ten membership forever (which the alums will of course be perfectly fine with, but the administration and faculty probably would not be OK with not having that option as a safety net). That would almost certainly cause a split in the BE, which would severely wound ND's athletic department overall.

One fact that was brought up in that Tribune article was very interesting - ND would supposedly save MILLIONS of dollars in travel costs by joining the Big Ten (which makes sense because so many Big Ten schools are within driving distance of South Bend).

So, let's think about this for a second - ND would make substantially more TV revenue in the Big Ten above the line AND cut down expenses for Olympics sports drastically below the line, which means that the net gain for ND's athletic department is incredible. This doesn't even account for the fact that research funding, which is how universities really bring in money, would likely rise over time by ND's inclusion in the Big Ten as a CIC member. Once again, the alums won't care, but the administration is going to realize (if it hasn't already) that it is truly a financial disadvantage for ND to be an independent from this point forward than the to join the Big Ten. In almost any line of business (and believe me, ND is BIG business), you'd be fired on the spot if you blindly turned down a virtually guaranteed simultaneous increase in revenue AND decrease in expenses AND decreasing risk in the future (as a 16-school Big Ten means that ND truly doesn't have a safety net any longer). The ND can talk about joining the ACC and Pac-10 in theory, yet those would both be situations where the Irish would take a pay cut AND increase expenses. The Big Ten really may have boxed ND in here.

Maybe the alums will kill a move no matter what, yet they really need to be aware that ND's power is going to be threatened even further with a superconference sprouting around them and its fellow in-state schools of Indiana and Purdue may end up making double or triple what ND is bringing in just for showing up.

I completely understand the emotional sentiment of ND alums (and I know a lot of them), but this is looking less like giving up few million dollars (which may be "worth" giving up for the "price" of independence) and more like giving up a net of tens of millions of dollars per year (which almost anyone would be foolish to turn down no matter what else is going on) that ND would be giving up every year.

Too logical. No Notre Dame fan will be able to understand logic.

(04-20-2010 01:22 PM)Blitz Wrote:  ND is fundamentally a Midwestern school with a national audience because of its Irish and Catholic heritage. But let’s be honest, the cachet that ND enjoys is a really a superregional as opposed to a truly “national” phenomenon, which region originates in Kansas City and stretches to Boston, encompassing every major metropolitan area in between (throughout MO, IL, WI, IN, MI, OH, PA, MD, NJ, NY, CT, and MA).

Outside of that range, ND’s influence wanes substantially. That is not to say there is no interest, only that it is limited. ND benefits from the same double-edged sword that the Big Ten wields, in that both interests enjoy somewhat of a national fan base because the top export from the Midwest over the past three decades has been people.

That said- it is not a sustainable audience outside of the core footprint. It’s not like anyone is dying the Sacramento River green- at least not purposefully.

Historically, ND resisted conference affiliation with the B10 because the B10’s primary market was bounded to the east by Cleveland (Philadelphia with the inclusion of Penn State) and did not provide reliable coverage to at least a quarter of its core fan base. By expanding into the northeast, the B10 is largely monopolizing ND’s entire footprint.

The B10 has maintained a symbiotic working relationship with ND on the basis, I presume, of a goodwill understanding that ND may one day become a conference mate. What if, however, the B10 went to 16, including four northeastern teams (say Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and UConn; and NE out west) permanently closing all further expansion scenarios, and then decided that the “goodwill” relationship with ND was no longer advantageous?

In fact with ND then only regarded as the Conference’s primary regional competitor, it would largely be in the B10’s best interest (including the interests of its new members) to discontinue scheduling regular games against ND.

Who would ND schedule without Purdue, NW, MI/MI St, OH, Pitt, Rutgers, etc…? Where would they go? The ACC? The PAC10? Really? If ND fans can’t tolerate the thought of joining the B10, how will they react to the prospect of playing over half their games in the Deep South or on the West Coast?

So, on one hand ND holds the prospect of maintaining its historic rivalries within its primary footprint and also gobs and gobs of cash which could be used to further its primary mission (which contrary to public opinion is not football, it’s academics), on the other hand ND faces the daunting challenge of remaining relevant and fiscally competitive as an independent trapped behind enemy lines.

IMO… the B10 has all of the pieces in place, and is just a few bold moves away from putting ND in checkmate. I think that all of the bravado coming from ND is intended to probe whether the B10 has the conviction to fulfill the threat.

If the B10 signals that it is expanding to anything less than 16 (unless one of those teams is TX), then a stalemate ensues. With that in mind, the B10 will continue to publicize (and strategically leak) threatening rhetoric about a 16 team conference. The $64,000 dollar question remains for ND: deep down, under all of the rhetoric, does the B10 have the stones to go through with it?

After the dust finally settles, I think Rutgers, Pitt, MO, NE and ND will be joining the B10 (however, I would not be at all surprised if the B10 does not throw everyone a curveball by substituting MD for Pitt).

This is an excellent post that would have more power behind it were it broken into shorter paragraphs. So I have taken the liberty to do so, hope you don't mind.

I think the flaw in your thinking is the projected result. That conference will not be northeastern enough for ND.

If the Big Ten does have the cojones to actually expand to 16 and ND is involved, which both are still in doubt, the conference really only needs one team from midwest in addition to ND - so either Mizzou or Nebraska. And based upon some quotes in some articles I've read today, neither seems to think they will be invited.

So, if at best one of Mizzou or Nebraska is invited and ND is interested the three remaining teams (again, if the Big Ten has the fortitude to expand to 16) will come from the BC, Maryland, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn grouping, with BC, SU, and UConn all "darkhorse candidates".

Maryland, Pitt, and Rutgers could be an interesting combo.

Cheers,
Neil

(04-20-2010 07:01 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I am still not convinced that ND wants anything to do with that "bus".

Obviously, there is no information leaking out from ND other than what has been reported.

I could be very wrong and ND may be about to announce that it is joining the Big Ten. That will not shock me, given the recent discussions, the current financial landscape and the Big Ten's determination to expand.

But, there is still really no support at all from anyone outside the faculty lounge and the administration building for joining the Big Ten or any other conference. None. Such a decision will be an EXTREMELY tough sell.

I am not overstating the reaction. It will be a bloody, messy civil war if the school announces it has decided to join a conference for football.

Many alumni will stop contributing to the Sorin Society. Many alumni and fans will stop going to games and cease to support or follow the football team.

It will be very ugly. It will be considered a complete sell out, a betrayal of all that was built by those who came before the current leadership.

I still have the opinion that ND will not join unless it is "something big", i.e. a sixteen team behemoth (something like Texas/Nebraska, Missouri, ND, Rutgers and Pitt). Swarbrick will have to mount a sales campaign that there was absolutely no choice and no other options. He will have to convince a hostile crowd that this is "almost as good" as being a national independent and actually better in many ways.

Otherwise, it is way too tough of a sales job for Jack Swarbrick and Father Jenkins to sell this to the Board of Trustees, the big boosters, the alumni, fans and students.

Even then, there will be extreme carnage coming out of South Bend. Most alumni and fans will still be against that decision.

I would really hate to be Jack Swarbrick if this move is announced. Maybe he will head out of town and take the job as NCAA President after he delivers ND to the Big Ten.

He was in the running when Myles Brand was selected and he wants the job. He is rumored to be a leading candidate for that open job.

He still commutes every day to South Bend from his home in Indianapolis. Maybe he will stop making that drive soon?

Hail Terry,

I understand where you are coming from with this, but do you think the ND administration can wait until after the fact? By this I mean, the Big Ten expands to 16, what is now the Big East is decimated, and the other conferences begin to expand to 16 as well leading to either the Plus One model where only the now four super-conferences champions play in a Football Final Four to determine who goes on to the BCS title game?

It's not as though ND is going to join either the Pac-10 or the SEC. So that basically leaves the Big Ten and the ACC. If the Big Ten expands with one Big 12 team and four of BC, Maryland, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, and UConn that leaves the Irish only the ACC which may have some plusses over the Big Ten, but is hardly "ND" territory.

Could ND survive? Sure. But don't you think many of these same alums will be extremely ticked off at the ND admin for allowing the Irish to fall to the ACC instead of the Big Ten?

This is why administrations sometimes need to ignore the fickleness of the mob and do what they believe is the right thing to do for the institution as a whole.

Personally, I hope the Irish continue to cling to their independence it just means one more slot open for a "darkhorse" candidate like SU. And if my Orange get passed over as many of us think by the Big Ten and ND is still available for the ACC to take at a later date, the Irish will need some company going into that league.

Somehow I believe Syracuse will be fine with that, but for the Irish, I think that will be a step down for them - especially considering what they could have now.

Cheers,
Neil

(04-20-2010 09:46 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  

(04-20-2010 01:22 PM)Blitz Wrote:  ND is fundamentally a Midwestern school with a national audience because of its Irish and Catholic heritage. But let’s be honest, the cachet that ND enjoys is a really a superregional as opposed to a truly “national” phenomenon, which region originates in Kansas City and stretches to Boston, encompassing every major metropolitan area in between (throughout MO, IL, WI, IN, MI, OH, PA, MD, NJ, NY, CT, and MA).

Outside of that range, ND’s influence wanes substantially. That is not to say there is no interest, only that it is limited. ND benefits from the same double-edged sword that the Big Ten wields, in that both interests enjoy somewhat of a national fan base because the top export from the Midwest over the past three decades has been people.

That said- it is not a sustainable audience outside of the core footprint. It’s not like anyone is dying the Sacramento River green- at least not purposefully.

Historically, ND resisted conference affiliation with the B10 because the B10’s primary market was bounded to the east by Cleveland (Philadelphia with the inclusion of Penn State) and did not provide reliable coverage to at least a quarter of its core fan base. By expanding into the northeast, the B10 is largely monopolizing ND’s entire footprint.

The B10 has maintained a symbiotic working relationship with ND on the basis, I presume, of a goodwill understanding that ND may one day become a conference mate. What if, however, the B10 went to 16, including four northeastern teams (say Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and UConn; and NE out west) permanently closing all further expansion scenarios, and then decided that the “goodwill” relationship with ND was no longer advantageous?

In fact with ND then only regarded as the Conference’s primary regional competitor, it would largely be in the B10’s best interest (including the interests of its new members) to discontinue scheduling regular games against ND.

Who would ND schedule without Purdue, NW, MI/MI St, OH, Pitt, Rutgers, etc…? Where would they go? The ACC? The PAC10? Really? If ND fans can’t tolerate the thought of joining the B10, how will they react to the prospect of playing over half their games in the Deep South or on the West Coast?

So, on one hand ND holds the prospect of maintaining its historic rivalries within its primary footprint and also gobs and gobs of cash which could be used to further its primary mission (which contrary to public opinion is not football, it’s academics), on the other hand ND faces the daunting challenge of remaining relevant and fiscally competitive as an independent trapped behind enemy lines.

IMO… the B10 has all of the pieces in place, and is just a few bold moves away from putting ND in checkmate. I think that all of the bravado coming from ND is intended to probe whether the B10 has the conviction to fulfill the threat.

If the B10 signals that it is expanding to anything less than 16 (unless one of those teams is TX), then a stalemate ensues. With that in mind, the B10 will continue to publicize (and strategically leak) threatening rhetoric about a 16 team conference. The $64,000 dollar question remains for ND: deep down, under all of the rhetoric, does the B10 have the stones to go through with it?

After the dust finally settles, I think Rutgers, Pitt, MO, NE and ND will be joining the B10 (however, I would not be at all surprised if the B10 does not throw everyone a curveball by substituting MD for Pitt).

This is an excellent post that would have more power behind it were it broken into shorter paragraphs. So I have taken the liberty to do so, hope you don't mind.

I think the flaw in your thinking is the projected result. That conference will not be northeastern enough for ND.

If the Big Ten does have the cojones to actually expand to 16 and ND is involved, which both are still in doubt, the conference really only needs one team from midwest in addition to ND - so either Mizzou or Nebraska. And based upon some quotes in some articles I've read today, neither seems to think they will be invited.

So, if at best one of Mizzou or Nebraska is invited and ND is interested the three remaining teams (again, if the Big Ten has the fortitude to expand to 16) will come from the BC, Maryland, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn grouping, with BC, SU, and UConn all "darkhorse candidates".

Maryland, Pitt, and Rutgers could be an interesting combo.

Cheers,
Neil

Thanks for splitting it up into discrete ideas. It’s much clearer. I’m so used to reading/drafting long passages of banal text that I often forget the benefits of proper syntax.

The eastern teams that I think best fit the B10 mold are Pitt, MD, Rutgers, and UConn (in that order I think). It’s probably just me, but I can’t see Cuse or BC in the B10. I just can’t rationalize the fit. However, I think Cuse would fit perfectly in the ACC.