Real Time RPI is notorious for being less accurate than other sources.

(03-06-2010 04:26 PM)OSUFALCON Wrote:  

(03-06-2010 02:11 PM)OZoner Wrote:  Basketball State has them at 47.

realtimerpi has them at #43 now. Need to get into the 30's to have any chance but they could now play their way in a #12 seed or maybe a #11 if they win out.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_midam_Men.html

#43 with an SOS now of #93.

Rhode Island has an SOS of #64
SDSU has an SOS of #58

If Kent loses to Akron in the MAC finals, which somehow I doubt they aren't going to have too much of a negative SOS.

Well URI is completely out barring an A10 Tourney win or championship game loss, so...yeah...

=>Kent now at #42.

CollegeRPI's current bracket projection has Kent St. playing Temple in New Orleans.

CBS Sports had the same match-up yesterday.

St Marys beats Gonzaga......for the WCC automatic. That result should end this thread.

I personally already had St. Mary's in, so it really doesn't change anything for me.

Right now, I have 16 bubble teams for 11 spots. Unlike many, I have Cal in.

Here are my bubble teams:
ACC: Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech
A10: Rhode Island and Dayton
Big East: Norte Dame and Marquette
CUSA: UAB and Memphis
MAC: Kent
Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego St.
PAC10: Washington and Arizona St.
SEC: Florida and Mississippi
WAC: Utah St.

I am disregarding the unlikely runs, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. For example, if Mississippi St. makes it to the SEC finals, I think they'll probably get it. Also, I acknowledge that Virginia Tech is in really good shape. For these 16 teams, there are 11 spots at the moment. The teams I do not have getting in are Washington, Dayton, Rhode Island, UAB and Mississippi.

If you limit it to this many teams, you can look at them one by one and see what they have to do to get in. Since this is a MAC site, I'll say that, if you play out a scenario where Kent makes the MAC final and loses, can they make the tournament? I'd say, yes, but it is very unlikely. It would require a few teams that are borderline fouling up in the their conference tournament quickly (for example, if Georgia Tech dumps in their opening round game in the ACC) and as many spots stay open as possible (i.e., Butler wins tonight, Utah St. wins the WAC, nothing bizzare in a major conference like Indiana winning the Big 10).

(03-09-2010 12:05 PM)bopol Wrote:  nothing bizzare in a major conference like Indiana winning the Big 10).

Ten years ago who would have ever thought that this phrase would make sense?

Kent State
CONFERENCE MAC ESPN/USA TODAY RANK --
VS. D-1 22-8
VS. NON-D-1 1-0
S-CURVE 51
VS. RPI 1-25 0-2
VS. RPI 26-50 1-0
VS. RPI 51-100 5-3
VS. RPI 100-200 9-3
VS. RPI SUB-201 7-0
CONF. W-L 13-3
NON-CONF. W-L 9-5
NON-CONF. SOS 23
NON-CONF. RPI 46
SCORING MARGIN 6.10
NEUTRAL W-L 1-1
ROAD W-L 9-5
LAST 12 11-1
RPI 43
RPI% .591
SOS 74
SOS% .552
OPPONENT SOS 147
OFF. AVG 70.70
DEF. AVG 64.63

Not a bad resume but just not enough at large spots...

(03-09-2010 02:37 PM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  

(03-09-2010 12:05 PM)bopol Wrote:  nothing bizzare in a major conference like Indiana winning the Big 10).

Ten years ago who would have ever thought that this phrase would make sense?

=>Barring a conference tourney run for these teams, these are who will not make the Big Dance this year (a virtual "who's who" of college basketball)...

OUT
Cincinnati
UConn
North Carolina
Indiana
Oklahoma
Creighton
Miami of Ohio
Utah
Arizona
UCLA
Oregon
Western Kentucky
Dayton

On The Bubble:
Illinois (RPI #41, 0-5 on neutral court, but 6-4 in true road games for 6-9 away from home, 4-8 vs. Top 25, 5-11 vs. Top 100)
Memphis (RPI #46, 3 spots worse than Kent, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, 2 losses to teams ranked 190+)
Florida (RPI #52 is about 9 spots worse than Kent, 3-8 vs. Top 50, 8-10 vs. Top 100)
Louisville (RPI #31 and beat 'Cuse, but 2-6 vs. Top 50, 9-10 vs. Top 100, but only 4 true road wins + 1 neutral win, and lost to W. Carolina).

Pac 10 likely only get conference champion in.

******

If JHG722 is right when wrote about Kent's 5-5 record vs. Top 100 ("No team is getting in with that; that's completely abysmal."), the U of L, Florida, and Illinois are also sunk (as they are worse than Kent) and Memphis is only slightly better (7-5 vs. Kent's 5-5).

I don't really get how Illinois is on any at-large list. Dayton barely belongs there anymore too. I think Louisville is in. Memphis could stand to get to the CUSA final to ensure their bid; Florida is also very bubble.

I forgot Wichita St, which I also consider bubble, but that's all my midmajor bias coming out (and that #45 in the RPI and second place in the MVC). I don't think they have much of a chance though, even on my card.

I don't really have a problem if people would say, sure, Kent is on the bubble now, but if they lose, they are going to fall too far behind others, so that's why I don't analyze them at large. That's how I felt about Cornell a few weeks ago. They were bubble, but would have to lose three straight games (2 against sub-250 RPI opponents) to lose the Ivy auto bid. They'd be off the bubble if that happened. Maybe Kent should be considered that way as well.

That said, my guess is that these guys decided the bubble 4 weeks ago and just follow the same 20 or so teams over that time, not really letting Kent rise into the bubble picture.

Victory, I'm not saying that Kent has that great of a resume; I'm just saying they have a better resume as opposed to a lot of bubble teams. The tournament takes 65, whether or not 65 deserve it.

Updated bubble

Here are my bubble teams:
ACC: Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech
A10: Rhode Island and Dayton
Big East: Norte Dame and Marquette
Big 12: Missouri
CUSA: UAB and Memphis
MAC: Kent
Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego St.
MVC: Northern Iowa
PAC10: Washington and Arizona St.
SEC: Florida and Mississippi
WAC: Utah St.

18 teams on the bubble for 12 spots. Missouri, welcome to the bubble after laying that egg. Marquette is probably totally in now, but I need to think about it.

=>Louisville lost to UC last night. They be bubblin'...

I think Louisville is on the right side of the bubble. Two wins vs. Syracuse this year on anyone's resume are very hard to discount. I think they are safe. When you look at the best wins of the other bubble teams, you scratch your head. Not much out there.

[quote='bopol' pid='5245396' dateline='1268264761']
Updated bubble

Here are my bubble teams:
ACC: Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech: VA TECH IS IN, GA TECH PROBABLE
A10: Rhode Island and Dayton: RI IN W ANOTHER WIN, DAYTON OUT
Big East: Norte Dame and Marquette: BOTH IN
Big 12: Missouri: IN
CUSA: UAB and Memphis:WHOEVER WINS CUSA TORUNEY OR MAKES FINAL
MAC: Kent: DOUBTFUL W A LOSS IN FINAL
Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego St.: UNLV IN, SDSU VERY BUBBLY
MVC: Northern Iowa: IN ALREADY WON TOURNEY
PAC10: Washington and Arizona St.: WHOEVER GOES FARTHER IN PAC10 TOURNEY
SEC: Florida and Mississippi: BOTH NEED A SEC TORUNEY RUN
WAC: Utah St.: PROBABLY

18 teams on the bubble for 12 spots. Missouri, welcome to the bubble after laying that egg. Marquette is probably totally in now, but I need to think about it.
[/quote

(03-11-2010 12:02 PM)pono Wrote:  [quote='bopol' pid='5245396' dateline='1268264761']
Updated bubble

Here are my bubble teams:
ACC: Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech: VA TECH IS IN, GA TECH PROBABLE
A10: Rhode Island and Dayton: RI IN W ANOTHER WIN, DAYTON OUT
Big East: Norte Dame and Marquette: BOTH IN
Big 12: Missouri: IN
CUSA: UAB and Memphis:WHOEVER WINS CUSA TORUNEY OR MAKES FINAL
MAC: Kent: DOUBTFUL W A LOSS IN FINAL
Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego St.: UNLV IN, SDSU VERY BUBBLY
MVC: Northern Iowa: IN ALREADY WON TOURNEY
PAC10: Washington and Arizona St.: WHOEVER GOES FARTHER IN PAC10 TOURNEY
SEC: Florida and Mississippi: BOTH NEED A SEC TORUNEY RUN
WAC: Utah St.: PROBABLY

18 teams on the bubble for 12 spots. Missouri, welcome to the bubble after laying that egg. Marquette is probably totally in now, but I need to think about it.
[/quote

Pono, generally agree with you. I'll update tomorrow, but I wanted to say that Northern Iowa was supposed to be Wichita State. WSU is VERY BUBBLY, but might slip in if enough falter. BTW, Memphis lost today and UAB is getting killed at the moment (still early) I think Wichita State may be better than Memphis right now. On the other hand, whatever doubt I had about Marquette is about to disappear as they are winning against Villanova with 5 seconds left.

?

(03-11-2010 09:10 PM)JHG722 Wrote:  ?

Methinks that the Shockers may have a chance as Kent, UAB and Memphis probably fell off the list today and ND and Marquette move up to IN.

ACC: Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech
A10: Rhode Island and Dayton
Big East: Norte Dame and Marquette (both move up to IN)
Big 12: Missouri (moves back up to IN)
CUSA: UAB and Memphis (UAB is totally off; Memphis is in really in deep trouble)
MAC: Kent (OFF the bubble)
Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego St.
MVC: Wichita State
PAC10: Washington and Arizona St. (Arizona St is about to lose)
SEC: Florida and Mississippi
WAC: Utah St.

So I have 12 teams for 8 spots at the moment. If Arizona St. loses, it might be 11 teams for 8 spots and that includes freaking Dayton and Memphis. I am pretty sure that a very weak at-large will make the tournament this year. And I'm liking the Shockers' chances of dancing...

editted to drop number of open spots to 8, since the MAC will still get one spot...

Well, not that I expect anyone to particularly care, but here are my current projections and last 4 in and last 8 out:

Seeds:
13: Rhode Island, Wichita St, Georgia Tech, Oakland
12: Cornell, Virginia Tech, Murray St., Washington
11: Siena, Missouri, Florida, Old Domion
10: Wake Forest, Louisville, UNLV, Utah St
9: San Diego St, Gonzaga, St. Mary's Norte Dame
8: Oklahoma St, UTEP, Florida St, Texas,
7: Marquette, Clemson, BYU, Richomnd
6: California, Xavier, Michigan St, Wisconsin
5: Temple, Northern Iowa, Vandebilt, Ohio St
4: Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburg, Georgetown
3: Tennesee, Maryland, Baylor, Texas A&M
2: West Virginia, Villanova, Kansas St, Purdue
1: Duke, Sytracuse, Kentucky, Kansas

Last 4 IN: Georgia Tech,, Virginia Tech, Wichita St, Rhode Island
Last 4 Out: Mississippi St, Mississippi, Arizona st, Memphis
Next 4 Out: UAB, Minnesota, USF, Kent

I probably screwed up something somewhere, but it's not like I am on the committee.