Quote:If Texas and Texas A&M wanted to join the SEC I would bet it would happen in an instant. I have a feeling Texas would never want to join the SEC though and I'm betting the Texas Legislature wouldn't let it happen.

It's an interesting situation, and one that sounds very familiar from the SWC break up.

UT wants nothing to do with the SEC of course. They say "SEC academics are not up to par" but what they really mean is "We'll no longer be so vital and irreplaceable that we can dictate favorable terms for our self like we did to the Big 8". UT knows they will get far more favorable terms and treatment from the PAC 10 or Big 10 than they will from the SEC. This is the same reason UNC would laugh at leaving the ACC for the SEC.

A&M on the other hand has no desire to be in either the PAC/Big 10 due to costs and culture differences and have no qualms about joining the SEC. In fact, since the breakup of the SWC, they have long harbored a desire to be the sole Texas team in the SEC. They know that if they can offer kids the chance to "play at home in Texas and still be in CFB's greatest conference" then they could truly revive their football program.

UT doesn't want to be in the SEC but they also don't want A&M to be in the SEC by themselves. I have no doubt the UT controlled Higher Education Coordinating Board has a whole bag of bribes and threats ready so that if the Big 10/Pac 10 demand a travel partner (ie an AAU school just a short bus ride from Austin) for UT, which seems a given with the large distances, they have A&M ready to "volunteer".

(02-07-2010 01:48 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  

(02-07-2010 01:40 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  I actually see Missouri to the Big Ten, Colorado/Utah to the PAC-10, and BYU/TCU to the Big 12. Big Ten gets its championship game, PAC-10 and the other BCS leagues kill off the MWC, and everything seems to be happy for a little while.

1) Utah and BYU won't part
2) The powers that be in the state of Texas would never give TCU Big XII "credibility."

BYU and Utah very well would part. If one or the other is invited to an AQ conference, their brass isn't going to turn that down just for the other's sake.

As far as TCU and the Big 12, I think it's unlikely but not for any spite against TCU credibility. I do think the argument that TCU doesn't really add any markets the Big 12 doesn't already have has some truth. But the bigger issue is that in most expansion scenarios the Big 12 loses a North team. That means that if TCU was added as a replacement, they'd either have to put TCU in the North or one of the Oklahoma teams would have to move to the North. Then the Bedlam game would either not be every year, or the B-12 would have to adopt a rival schedule ala the SEC.

If the Big 12 loses a North team. I could see Utah getting added to the North- adds a decent market and the Big 12 divisional set up would be intact. Adds another Mountain team for CU and helps with minor sport travel. BYU also would be considered, but the no Sunday play would be a killer for a league that has a fair amount of Sunday sports throughout the year.

The "MWC 12" (7th BCS Conference)

(EAST)
Air Force
Colorado State
Houston
New Mexico
TCU
Wyoming

(WEST)
Boise State
BYU
Fresno State
San Diego State
UNLV
Utah

More than likely BYU and UTAH would bolt to the Pac -12 while the eastern CUSA members go to the big east.

I could see a domino affect such that a merger between the MWC leftovers and the CUSA leftovers occur.

You could have the following come out of it:

EAST
Houston
Tulsa
SMU
Rice
Tulane
Southern Miss

West
CSU
UNM
WYO
Air Force
TCU
UTEP

That would be a pretty good conference.

(02-08-2010 12:41 AM)MichiganTiger Wrote:  

(02-06-2010 09:07 PM)Cubanbull Wrote:  LOL. The Big Ten pays each member between 14-15 million a year. So a new addition would have to bring at least that amount just to break even.
Going to 12 brings them a championship game worth about 5 million, so that twelve team would have to bring in at least 9 more million from TV revenue.
Going to 14 or 16 would mean each addition would have to bring in 14 million all in TV revenue just to break even.
So as you can see even 12 is no sure bet unless they get a BIG name like Notre dame or Texas. All the pther options would have a hard time bringing in 9 million on their own and NONE could bring in 14-15 million.

The actual number is around $21-22 million.

And on a side note, anyone that thinks the Big Ten will expand to 16 needs to put down the crack pipe.

and that makes even less likely that theyll add more than one.

(02-08-2010 06:11 PM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 12:41 AM)MichiganTiger Wrote:  

(02-06-2010 09:07 PM)Cubanbull Wrote:  LOL. The Big Ten pays each member between 14-15 million a year. So a new addition would have to bring at least that amount just to break even.
Going to 12 brings them a championship game worth about 5 million, so that twelve team would have to bring in at least 9 more million from TV revenue.
Going to 14 or 16 would mean each addition would have to bring in 14 million all in TV revenue just to break even.
So as you can see even 12 is no sure bet unless they get a BIG name like Notre dame or Texas. All the pther options would have a hard time bringing in 9 million on their own and NONE could bring in 14-15 million.

The actual number is around $21-22 million.

And on a side note, anyone that thinks the Big Ten will expand to 16 needs to put down the crack pipe.

and that makes even less likely that theyll add more than one.

I think the idea is, if they add enough big programs, they may still be able to negotiate the same amount of revenue for each program.

(02-06-2010 02:25 PM)West Is the Best Wrote:  School ADs and Presidents have been discussing a major restructuring in the next round of realingment for the last few years. If rumors are true concerning Big 10 expansion then look out. Two scenarios are unfolding for the Big 10 to lock in a major TV deal and position itself has the strongest conference on an income level per school basis.

One scenario has invitations being extended to Missouri, Rutgers, Syracuse, Boston College and UConn to lock up the NE ad Mid West TV markets. UConn would be the lone exception concerning academics to lock uo the NE TV market.

Another scenario has invitations extended to Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Rutgers and Syracuse. And a third scenario offering Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska for a 14 team league.

If the Big 12 gets raided to this degree UT will no doubt bolt to the PAC 10 with A&M and OU to the SEC. Austin will not prevent UT & A&M going in seperate directions this time. Add those schools in the west with WVU and possibly NC and the SEC will have a strong TV market.

BSU, FSU are locks for the MWC with Nevada and Houston fighting for the last slot in what will become an AQ conference. The question will then become wether MWC would go to 16 teams. Okie State, K State, Baylor, Houston/Nevada/SMU would be a solid 16 team league.

CUSA then merges with the remains of the BE for another 16 team league with invites to SBC schools or UTSA/UNCC for the remaing slots.

It will be a very interesting spring and summer.

If smoking this rock with you gets my Niners into the Big East, then I shall smoketh it with you!

(02-08-2010 06:07 PM)DFWMINER Wrote:  More than likely BYU and UTAH would bolt to the Pac -12 while the eastern CUSA members go to the big east.

I could see a domino affect such that a merger between the MWC leftovers and the CUSA leftovers occur.

You could have the following come out of it:

EAST
Houston
Tulsa
SMU
Rice
Tulane
Southern Miss

West
CSU
UNM
WYO
Air Force
TCU
UTEP

That would be a pretty good conference.

I agree with you - we'll see this kind of conference form. If Memphis or Boise State are available, then you may see one of them in place of Wyoming. Everyone not in a BCS conference (or this conference) will shuffle into the WAC, Sunbelt, and MAC.

(02-08-2010 09:06 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 06:07 PM)DFWMINER Wrote:  More than likely BYU and UTAH would bolt to the Pac -12 while the eastern CUSA members go to the big east.

I could see a domino affect such that a merger between the MWC leftovers and the CUSA leftovers occur.

You could have the following come out of it:

EAST
Houston
Tulsa
SMU
Rice
Tulane
Southern Miss

West
CSU
UNM
WYO
Air Force
TCU
UTEP

That would be a pretty good conference.

I agree with you - we'll see this kind of conference form. If Memphis or Boise State are available, then you may see one of them in place of Wyoming. Everyone not in a BCS conference (or this conference) will shuffle into the WAC, Sunbelt, and MAC.

Maybe...but I think there are a lot of schools that still remember what happened in this old place:

(02-08-2010 09:14 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 09:06 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 06:07 PM)DFWMINER Wrote:  More than likely BYU and UTAH would bolt to the Pac -12 while the eastern CUSA members go to the big east.

I could see a domino affect such that a merger between the MWC leftovers and the CUSA leftovers occur.

You could have the following come out of it:

EAST
Houston
Tulsa
SMU
Rice
Tulane
Southern Miss

West
CSU
UNM
WYO
Air Force
TCU
UTEP

That would be a pretty good conference.

I agree with you - we'll see this kind of conference form. If Memphis or Boise State are available, then you may see one of them in place of Wyoming. Everyone not in a BCS conference (or this conference) will shuffle into the WAC, Sunbelt, and MAC.

Maybe...but I think there are a lot of schools that still remember what happened in this old place:

Yeah, but in this case the airport 5 would be the airport 3.

(02-08-2010 09:28 PM)canewton Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 09:14 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  Maybe...but I think there are a lot of schools that still remember what happened in this old place:

Yeah, but in this case the airport 5 would be the airport 3.

Or the Airport 2 without Wyoming. I'd be ok with just Air Force (and New Mexico), and let CSU and Wyoming reform the WAC.

The karma may be coming to get CSU and Wyoming if they lose the cover of big daddy BYU and Utah. I suspect that San Jose State, Fresno State, and Hawaii might like to turn the screws just as hard as Rice, SMU, UTEP and Tulsa.

I would imagine Air Force would go independent if the MWC fell apart.

Eventually, I think every conference will become more oriented towards proportional payouts. It would really help the best revenue generators in each conference and hurt the lower revenue generators in each conference.

Overall, it makes sense to pay schools more or less for the financial benefit they bring to the table.

(02-08-2010 03:46 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(02-07-2010 01:48 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  

(02-07-2010 01:40 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  I actually see Missouri to the Big Ten, Colorado/Utah to the PAC-10, and BYU/TCU to the Big 12.

Utah and BYU won't part

BYU and Utah very well would part. If one or the other is invited to an AQ conference, their brass isn't going to turn that down just for the other's sake.

This is a subject that has come up before on his website, and there's nothing gained in unpacking the entire argument all over again. But simply to cut to the chase, a few points: (I) The "U" and the "Y" have played in the same league (same as each other) every year since 1922. (II) People who have not lived in Utah for extended periods of time cannot really understand the pervasive, formidable influence that the LDS has throughout all the economic/social institutions in that state, including the "U". That influence would absolutely have the power to prevent Utah and BYU from getting too "separated" in the context of athletics. (III) On sports blogs and websites like this one, I have never seen a single example of a Utah fan or a BYU fan, or actually anyone who claims to live (or to have lived) in Utah for more than a minute ever say that the two schools would ever part ways. (IV) "Impossible" covers a lot of ground and I will not use it in this case. But if the idea of U and Y separating is not "impossible", it is very, very close to it.

EDIT: The truth is, both schools have proven, BCS-quality football teams and overall athletic programs Right Now and in a few years, I feel sure that they will wind up together in a BCS league. The three candidates for that league are (in A-B-C order) the Big XII, the MWC, and the Pac-10.

Oh and by-the-way: That thing about BYU not playing on Sundays can be changed by LDS authorities. And that would not be a years-long process like (for example) beatification in the RCC. The people with power in the LDS could simply issue a statement one day, in less time than it takes to read this post, and that would be it.

"Oh and by-the-way: That thing about BYU not playing on Sundays can be changed by LDS authorities. And that would not be a years-long process like (for example) beatification in the RCC. The people with power in the LDS could simply issue a statement one day, in less time than it takes to read this post, and that would be it. "

I can promise you that BYU will NEVER play an athletic event on a Sunday. There is NO amount of revenue that would change that fact.

In response to TyBull's comment:

You might be right. But I am curious how you can be so certain ("I can promise you..." "NEVER play an athletic event..." "NO amount of revenue...").

Also, I note that you did not actually dispute the part of my post that you quoted. Within LDS, the appropriate church authorities can change that rule on a moment's notice, at any time, for any reason or no reason. You don't deny that, do you?

[quote='TyBull'

I can promise you that BYU will NEVER play an athletic event on a Sunday.

There is NO amount of revenue that would change that fact.

[/quote]

And you can take that to the Bank.

(02-09-2010 08:23 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 03:46 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(02-07-2010 01:48 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  

(02-07-2010 01:40 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  I actually see Missouri to the Big Ten, Colorado/Utah to the PAC-10, and BYU/TCU to the Big 12.

Utah and BYU won't part

BYU and Utah very well would part. If one or the other is invited to an AQ conference, their brass isn't going to turn that down just for the other's sake.

This is a subject that has come up before on his website, and there's nothing gained in unpacking the entire argument all over again. But simply to cut to the chase, a few points: (I) The "U" and the "Y" have played in the same league (same as each other) every year since 1922. (II) People who have not lived in Utah for extended periods of time cannot really understand the pervasive, formidable influence that the LDS has throughout all the economic/social institutions in that state, including the "U". That influence would absolutely have the power to prevent Utah and BYU from getting too "separated" in the context of athletics. (III) On sports blogs and websites like this one, I have never seen a single example of a Utah fan or a BYU fan, or actually anyone who claims to live (or to have lived) in Utah for more than a minute ever say that the two schools would ever part ways. (IV) "Impossible" covers a lot of ground and I will not use it in this case. But if the idea of U and Y separating is not "impossible", it is very, very close to it.

EDIT: The truth is, both schools have proven, BCS-quality football teams and overall athletic programs Right Now and in a few years, I feel sure that they will wind up together in a BCS league. The three candidates for that league are (in A-B-C order) the Big XII, the MWC, and the Pac-10.

Oh and by-the-way: That thing about BYU not playing on Sundays can be changed by LDS authorities. And that would not be a years-long process like (for example) beatification in the RCC. The people with power in the LDS could simply issue a statement one day, in less time than it takes to read this post, and that would be it.

I dunno- here is at article that talks about different conferences without too much consternation about splitting up: http://www.abc4.com/content/news/top%20s...mff7Q.cspx

I do think they'd prefer to stay together, but if the opportunity arises for Utah, they aren't going to pass up either the PAC-10 or Big 12 just to help out BYU.

As far as Sundays, I'm not sure what I think BYU would do. For me personally, I'd get rid of that requirement quicker than you can say Joseph Smith. But I'm not Mormon and they clearly have strong feelings about Sunday play. I really think any league that would want them would have to agree to work around that requirement, which means things like conference basketball tournaments, golf, tennis, etcd would have to end on Saturday and not Sunday. It's a big hurdle.

(02-09-2010 11:18 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I do think they'd prefer to stay together, but if the opportunity arises for Utah, they aren't going to pass up either the PAC-10 or Big 12 just to help out BYU.

Frog, how much of your life have you spent in Utah?

The key word (3 times) in that article you linked to is "speculation." Let me ask you: Do you think the Pac-10 is powerful enough and devious enough to plant a story -- such stories used to be called "trial balloon" -- in Salt Lake City media just to see what the reaction is? And if they actually did it, would the end result be any different than this?

I will admit that IF the Cougars and the Utes are both guaranteed slots in a BCS conference, it might not necessarily have to be the same BCS conference. But you will not see a scenario where Utah is getting BCS money and BYU is getting MWC money.

Quote:As far as Sundays, I'm not sure what I think BYU would do. For me personally, I'd get rid of that requirement quicker than you can say Joseph Smith. But I'm not Mormon and they clearly have strong feelings about Sunday play.

They used to have strong feelings about "plural marriage" and blacks in the "priesthood", among many other things. What do you suppose happened to all that?

(02-09-2010 11:45 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(02-09-2010 11:18 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I do think they'd prefer to stay together, but if the opportunity arises for Utah, they aren't going to pass up either the PAC-10 or Big 12 just to help out BYU.

Frog, how much of your life have you spent in Utah?

The key word (3 times) in that article you linked to is "speculation." Let me ask you: Do you think the Pac-10 is powerful enough and devious enough to plant a story -- such stories used to be called "trial balloon" -- in Salt Lake City media just to see what the reaction is? And if they actually did it, would the end result be any different than this?

I will admit that IF the Cougars and the Utes are both guaranteed slots in a BCS conference, it might not necessarily have to be the same BCS conference. But you will not see a scenario where Utah is getting BCS money and BYU is getting MWC money.

Quote:As far as Sundays, I'm not sure what I think BYU would do. For me personally, I'd get rid of that requirement quicker than you can say Joseph Smith. But I'm not Mormon and they clearly have strong feelings about Sunday play.

They used to have strong feelings about "plural marriage" and blacks in the "priesthood", among many other things. What do you suppose happened to all that?

I haven't lived in Utah, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once...

I just don't think of it in absolute terms. Put it this way- if the opportunity arises where the Utes have a chance to join an AQ conference, there is going to be a ton of pressure by the fans and big money boosters to take the offer, regardless of the implications for BYU. And in fact if they pass it up.... all hell would break loose. They'll want to stay together, but won't eschew an offer to join an AQ conference for each other.

FWIW, I hope you're right- I'd prefer the Utes to turn down an AQ conference and the MWC to stay intact. I just don't see that happening.