Tough couple of months for Meteorological (MET) Office in the United Kingdom, which, up until recently, was considered the foremost climate research unit in the world. Actually, he gets called out on a host of inaccurate forecasts, all on the toasty side, if you catch my drift.

Who knew the chief made more than the Prime Minister?



Regarding his contention that the MET actually did predict that tempertured would level off during this decade, that's news to me.

I'll keep looking to see if I can find ANYONE at the MET who made any statement like this at the beginning of the decade.

Here are predictions I've been able to find so far:

MET's forecast for 2010, made last month:

Global warming will resume its upward climb again next year, the UK Met Office predicted yesterday at the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen – forecasting that 2010 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the world.

2010 to be Hottest On Record

Here was the METs forecast in August 2007:

The forecast from researchers at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter reveals that natural shifts in climate will cancel out warming produced by greenhouse gas emissions and other human activity until 2009, but from then on, temperatures will rise steadily. Temperatures are set to rise over the 10-year period by 0.3C. Beyond 2014, the odds of breaking the temperature record rise even further, the scientists added.

MET 2007 Forecast

Here was the METs forecast in January 2007

This year (2007) is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the United Kingdom's Met Office.

2007 to Pass 1998 as Warmest on Record

Looks like the BBC now considers METs forecasts to be so unreliable, they've begun talks with the national forecaster of New Zealand:

BBC forecast for Met Office: changeable

(01-09-2010 08:18 AM)bubbapt Wrote:  Tough couple of months for Meteorological (MET) Office in the United Kingdom, which, up until recently, was considered the foremost climate research unit in the world. Actually, he gets called out on a host of inaccurate forecasts, all on the toasty side, if you catch my drift.

Who knew the chief made more than the Prime Minister?



Regarding his contention that the MET actually did predict that tempertured would level off during this decade, that's news to me.

I'll keep looking to see if I can find ANYONE at the MET who made any statement like this at the beginning of the decade.

My guess he still knows more about weather and climate than you(and most of the other Republicans on this board) will ever know in your lifetime.

(01-17-2010 03:22 PM)RobertN Wrote:  

(01-09-2010 08:18 AM)bubbapt Wrote:  Tough couple of months for Meteorological (MET) Office in the United Kingdom, which, up until recently, was considered the foremost climate research unit in the world. Actually, he gets called out on a host of inaccurate forecasts, all on the toasty side, if you catch my drift.

Who knew the chief made more than the Prime Minister?



Regarding his contention that the MET actually did predict that tempertured would level off during this decade, that's news to me.

I'll keep looking to see if I can find ANYONE at the MET who made any statement like this at the beginning of the decade.

My guess he still knows more about weather and climate than you(and most of the other Republicans on this board) will ever know in your lifetime.

He seems like a very bright man. Unfortunately, he's had a very poor record of divining the future.

And your guess was a little off. I'm a libertarian. I'm guessing you're really Andy Dick.

(01-09-2010 10:02 AM)bubbapt Wrote:  Here are predictions I've been able to find so far:

MET's forecast for 2010, made last month:

Global warming will resume its upward climb again next year, the UK Met Office predicted yesterday at the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen – forecasting that 2010 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the world.

2010 to be Hottest On Record

And how do we know that won't be accurate? You wrote your post 9 days into the year. That's less than 2.5% of the year. And if you look at the channel 5 temperatures, his statement would be quite accurate thus far.

(01-09-2010 10:02 AM)bubbapt Wrote:  Here was the METs forecast in August 2007:

The forecast from researchers at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter reveals that natural shifts in climate will cancel out warming produced by greenhouse gas emissions and other human activity until 2009, but from then on, temperatures will rise steadily. Temperatures are set to rise over the 10-year period by 0.3C. Beyond 2014, the odds of breaking the temperature record rise even further, the scientists added.

MET 2007 Forecast

That looks pretty accurate to me. We had a dip in global average temperatures during a la nina and now we seem to be on an upswing again.

(01-09-2010 10:02 AM)bubbapt Wrote:  Here was the METs forecast in January 2007

This year (2007) is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the United Kingdom's Met Office.

2007 to Pass 1998 as Warmest on Record

Well he was wrong there. 2007 was the 8th warmest on record according to HadCRUT, 6th according to S&R, 5th according to RSS, 4th according to UAH, and 3rd according to GISS.

(01-17-2010 06:30 PM)plaidtiger Wrote:  

(01-09-2010 10:02 AM)bubbapt Wrote:  Here are predictions I've been able to find so far:

MET's forecast for 2010, made last month:

Global warming will resume its upward climb again next year, the UK Met Office predicted yesterday at the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen – forecasting that 2010 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the world.

2010 to be Hottest On Record

And how do we know that won't be accurate? You wrote your post 9 days into the year. That's less than 2.5% of the year. And if you look at the channel 5 temperatures, his statement would be quite accurate thus far.

(01-09-2010 10:02 AM)bubbapt Wrote:  Here was the METs forecast in August 2007:

The forecast from researchers at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter reveals that natural shifts in climate will cancel out warming produced by greenhouse gas emissions and other human activity until 2009, but from then on, temperatures will rise steadily. Temperatures are set to rise over the 10-year period by 0.3C. Beyond 2014, the odds of breaking the temperature record rise even further, the scientists added.

MET 2007 Forecast

That looks pretty accurate to me. We had a dip in global average temperatures during a la nina and now we seem to be on an upswing again.

(01-09-2010 10:02 AM)bubbapt Wrote:  Here was the METs forecast in January 2007

This year (2007) is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the United Kingdom's Met Office.

2007 to Pass 1998 as Warmest on Record

Well he was wrong there. 2007 was the 8th warmest on record according to HadCRUT, 6th according to S&R, 5th according to RSS, 4th according to UAH, and 3rd according to GISS.

The 2010 forecast might well be true; I thought maybe we could track it over the course of the year and see if it's close.

The August 2007 forecast was true, except that it was about 8 months too late, and it followed up on the earlier 2007 forecast that had called for it to be the hottest ever.

IIRC, our National Weather Service predicted a warm winter. Although Accuweather was more Accurate in predicting the cold outbreaks.

I'm being semi tongue-in-cheek here, but I begin to wonder if many forecasters around the world are opting to take the easy way out when it comes to prediction-time, i.e. "global warming is happening, so let's just predict a warmer-than-normal season... odds are with us... piece o' cake... now let's mail it in and take the rest of the day off".

As much as I like to see the UK Mets squirm a bit, we are only 50% through meteorological winter. So for all we know the nasty stuff is over with, and the rest of winter will be a mild breeze.

However, signs do point to another possible cold blast at the end of the month, with the Arctic Oscillation tanking and the NAO going negative... recipes for frequent Arctic fronts again.

(01-17-2010 07:00 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  IIRC, our National Weather Service predicted a warm winter. Although Accuweather was more Accurate in predicting the cold outbreaks.

I'm being semi tongue-in-cheek here, but I begin to wonder if many forecasters around the world are opting to take the easy way out when it comes to prediction-time, i.e. "global warming is happening, so let's just predict a warmer-than-normal season... odds are with us... piece o' cake... now let's mail it in and take the rest of the day off".

As much as I like to see the UK Mets squirm a bit, we are only 50% through meteorological winter. So for all we know the nasty stuff is over with, and the rest of winter will be a mild breeze.

However, signs do point to another possible cold blast at the end of the month, with the Arctic Oscillation tanking and the NAO going negative... recipes for frequent Arctic fronts again.

Actually both the AO and the NAO indexes just turned positive.

Yes, currently. I'm talking about the end of the month.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/...x/ao.shtml

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/.../nao.shtml

(01-17-2010 07:30 PM)plaidtiger Wrote:  Actually both the AO and the NAO indexes just turned positive.

Warming is a positive. Glad you agree.