(08-06-2009 03:44 PM)LRTrojan Wrote: While they may have the money left to them, I really doubt that they would draw much of anything in football, competing against the Saints and Tulane for the football dollar. They don't draw in basketball, so I fail to see how they would in football. I don't think UALR would draw as much as UCA does.
While it's been stated on this board that some of the 'movers and shakers' of the Little Rock business community think we should have football, where the hell are they during basketball season? Why aren't they out front pushing to get the business community and the local media behind the program? Does the mayor, or the city manager of Little Rock even attend games? I have seen the mayor of NLR(Pat Hayes)at some games even after the Trojans left Alltel.
I am a skeptic when it comes to metro football. Obviously there are successes but you've got examples like South Florida who couldn't put 25,000 in the stands for a bowl game a couple miles from their stadium. I ran the numbers a bit back and if you throw out the attendance from home games against Texas, Texas A&M, and Arkansas, Houston is drawing the same as they did in the SWC. They've got their niche and that's it. The most rural team in the Big East leads in football attendance. USC, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are the only top 30 teams in attendance located in huge metro areas. Now there are schools close to metro areas and on the fringes that do well but not that many.
Every market is unique. The dynamic in New Orleans has changed post-Katrina. UNO football marketed as part of the rebuilding of the city might strike a chord.
One thing I've picked up from studying the trajectory of the NCAA through the various divisional structures over the past several decades is this.
The further below 120 the top level of football is the faster it grows with that growth slowing as it approaches 120. As it pushes past 120 the pressure to reduce grows. We've seen reductions at around the 138 level, at 144, and at roughly 180.
Right now we are at 120 with USA a probable 121 barring any changes in the criteria.
We are roughly at the balance point of what the market will bear and what the powers will tolerate.
We have a huge imbalance festering though in market power that could shatter how the next decade or two plays out. Right now the worst team in the SEC or Big 10 is guaranteed more conference money than Notre Dame makes off its supposedly obscene TV contract. The Big XII, Pac-10, and ACC are now lagging behind the Big 10 and SEC in money by a significant amount with the Big East well behind them, propped up in large part by basketball money.
If the economy doesn't rebound and advertising and rights fees go to crazy heights there is a real chance of catastrophic changes. It could be as simple as leagues breaking apart and realigning. It could the SEC and Big 10 extorting extensions from ABC by agreeing to expand even larger, remember ABC is really only buying OU, Texas, TAMU, Nebraska when they buy the Big XII.
It could be that the pressure for equalizing cash leads to a full playoff which arguably plays to the disadvantage of conferences with a title game. If there is a big playoff pot of cash floating around you could see much more stringent membership criteria and pare down to the 60 to 80 range.
Right now there is a moratorium on teams transferring from FCS to FBS. What the heck happens to USA if they grandfather in the 120 and require new schools to meet higher standards? My gut instinct (no insider speculation) is that before the moratorium expires they will change the rules for reclassifying. Instead of two year transition, I won't be shocked to see it become a four year transition that requires you to meet all the criteria for two to four of those transition years. Basically meaning you've got four years of playing the schedule but with no chance at post-season and having to sign recruits that are willing to come in knowing they won't play at the top level just in limbo their entire career. WKU slashed its ticket prices for two years to get the sales to meet the criteria requirements, a move that was very expensive in lost revenue, what if they had to do that for four years and couldn't get any of the huge paydays because they couldn't be counted as an FCS opponent?
If I'm a university president or an AD thinking about football, I sit tight until 2011 when I can see whether or not my investment in football is wasted.
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UNO Considering Adding Football!!!
