6th West - Little Rock

WHAT I LIKE: 1. Plenty of beef up front. We aren't likely to get pushed around. 2. Should be our best shooting team in a while. 3. Defense - always. 4. Solid recruiting class. 5. Steve Shields. His teams play above their ability. 6. Best point guard situation since Graber.

WHAT I DON'T LIKE: 1. Only one starter returning. Hard to get around that glaring fact. 2. Huge amount of senior leadership gone. 3. "Almost" can become a habit. 4. Who will replace Fowler? 5. Will the mental toughness still be there?

My heart says higher than this, but logically, this is where we belong. We just lost too much, and even if the incoming talent is good, it will take a while to accilmate, probably. Losing an All-SBC forward and the DPOY are hard hits to take without feeling it. There are just too many question marks to rate this team much higher. They might finish a couple of notches further up the ladder, but for them to be even in the division title hunt is a stretch.

(07-29-2009 07:25 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote:  My heart says higher than this, but logically, this is where we belong. We just lost too much, and even if the incoming talent is good, it will take a while to accilmate, probably. Losing an All-SBC forward and the DPOY are hard hits to take without feeling it. There are just too many question marks to rate this team much higher. They might finish a couple of notches further up the ladder, but for them to be even in the division title hunt is a stretch.

Well said. On paper, we lost key personnel and don't have much PROVEN D-1 talent on the roster.

Low expectations sets the stage for huge accolades for finishing in the middle of the pack.

Seems like we've seen this movie before.

I could easily see us surpassing ULL, ULM and ASU if things gel by conference time, but probably not Denver, and certainly not NT.

That's where I have us. Behind UNT and DU and ahead of ULL, ULM, UNO and that other team.

(07-29-2009 07:25 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote:  6th West - Little Rock

WHAT I LIKE: 1. Plenty of beef up front. We aren't likely to get pushed around. 2. Should be our best shooting team in a while. 3. Defense - always. 4. Solid recruiting class. 5. Steve Shields. His teams play above their ability. 6. Best point guard situation since Graber.

WHAT I DON'T LIKE: 1. Only one starter returning. Hard to get around that glaring fact. 2. Huge amount of senior leadership gone. 3. "Almost" can become a habit. 4. Who will replace Fowler? 5. Will the mental toughness still be there?

My heart says higher than this, but logically, this is where we belong. We just lost too much, and even if the incoming talent is good, it will take a while to accilmate, probably. Losing an All-SBC forward and the DPOY are hard hits to take without feeling it. There are just too many question marks to rate this team much higher. They might finish a couple of notches further up the ladder, but for them to be even in the division title hunt is a stretch.

I believe, realistically, your prediction is fair. However, don't forget that III played more minutes than anyone on the squad last year, with the exception of Patterson, so he could count as a returning starter. Mike Smith is back, so that leaves three spots unaccounted for. Obviously Bozeman has BCS experience as a starting point guard, so we shouldn't lose anything there. Might even make gains. But Fowler and Edwards are the key players missing. Replace them adequately, and we're right in the hunt for the Western Division again. Can we develop the chemistry fast enough? I don't know. But I think it could be a fun season, with some surprises if everyone stays eligible and is committed to the team concept.

(07-29-2009 11:14 AM)outsideualr Wrote:  However, don't forget that III played more minutes than anyone on the squad last year, with the exception of Patterson, so he could count as a returning starter.

He was the returning starter I counted. I always go by total minutes played. I don't care who started the game. Burton was not a "starter" by that criterium.

(07-29-2009 11:25 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote:  

(07-29-2009 11:14 AM)outsideualr Wrote:  However, don't forget that III played more minutes than anyone on the squad last year, with the exception of Patterson, so he could count as a returning starter.

He was the returning starter I counted. I always go by total minutes played. I don't care who started the game. Burton was not a "starter" by that criterium.

You probably put us where most of the preseason magazines will based on what we lost. They may put us somewhat higher since we have proven to be one of the better teams on the Sun Belt over the years. Where we finish will depend on the results of "close" games, which I'm sure there will be many of. As best as I can recall, we won most of the close ones last year- it just takes a little dip in talent for those games to go from "W's" to "L's". On the other hand, it does appear that the coaches seem reasonably confident. You don't upgrade the schedule (which they have apparently done), if you think your team isn't going to be very good.

(07-29-2009 10:08 AM)Scotto Wrote:  That's where I have us. Behind UNT and DU and ahead of ULL, ULM, UNO and that other team.

The only reason I put us behind the others is that (except for ASU), everyone else has essentially everyone returning.

Some programs upgrade their schedule because they realize that's what gets you to post-season. Lots of wins over weak teams just doesn't impress the selection commitee(s).

(07-29-2009 12:44 PM)Scotto Wrote:  Some programs upgrade their schedule because they realize that's what gets you to post-season. Lots of wins over weak teams just doesn't impress the selection commitee(s).

But losses don't impress the committee either- unless they are close losses to Top 15 teams and I don't think we have any of those this year.

Yeah, but by at least playing good teams you have shot at an at-large. Play weak teams and the only way to get to the NCAA is winning the SBC Tourney.

Seems like we haven't done too well in that category.

(07-29-2009 07:25 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote:  6th West - Little Rock

WHAT I LIKE: 1. Plenty of beef up front. We aren't likely to get pushed around. 2. Should be our best shooting team in a while. 3. Defense - always. 4. Solid recruiting class. 5. Steve Shields. His teams play above their ability. 6. Best point guard situation since Graber.

WHAT I DON'T LIKE: 1. Only one starter returning. Hard to get around that glaring fact. 2. Huge amount of senior leadership gone. 3. "Almost" can become a habit. 4. Who will replace Fowler? 5. Will the mental toughness still be there?

My heart says higher than this, but logically, this is where we belong. We just lost too much, and even if the incoming talent is good, it will take a while to accilmate, probably. Losing an All-SBC forward and the DPOY are hard hits to take without feeling it. There are just too many question marks to rate this team much higher. They might finish a couple of notches further up the ladder, but for them to be even in the division title hunt is a stretch.

All I can say is that we'd best not finish 6th in the West, or the coaches will really be on the hot seat. I'll add, there's no way we're going to finish 6th in the West. We will at least be in the top three in the division, and could win it again. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

(07-29-2009 02:01 PM)outsideualr Wrote:  

(07-29-2009 07:25 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote:  6th West - Little Rock

WHAT I LIKE: 1. Plenty of beef up front. We aren't likely to get pushed around. 2. Should be our best shooting team in a while. 3. Defense - always. 4. Solid recruiting class. 5. Steve Shields. His teams play above their ability. 6. Best point guard situation since Graber.

WHAT I DON'T LIKE: 1. Only one starter returning. Hard to get around that glaring fact. 2. Huge amount of senior leadership gone. 3. "Almost" can become a habit. 4. Who will replace Fowler? 5. Will the mental toughness still be there?

My heart says higher than this, but logically, this is where we belong. We just lost too much, and even if the incoming talent is good, it will take a while to accilmate, probably. Losing an All-SBC forward and the DPOY are hard hits to take without feeling it. There are just too many question marks to rate this team much higher. They might finish a couple of notches further up the ladder, but for them to be even in the division title hunt is a stretch.

All I can say is that we'd best not finish 6th in the West, or the coaches will really be on the hot seat. I'll add, there's no way we're going to finish 6th in the West. We will at least be in the top three in the division, and could win it again. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I don't have any grand predictions. I do know Pappy studies this stuff much more than I do. Returning starters is often a pretty good measure of how a team will do, if they were at least competitive the year before. I doubt there really is going to be a whole lot of talent difference between 2nd through 6th teams in our division. Seems like we should fall in the middle somewhere.

(07-29-2009 05:37 PM)mjs Wrote:  

(07-29-2009 02:01 PM)outsideualr Wrote:  

(07-29-2009 07:25 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote:  6th West - Little Rock

WHAT I LIKE: 1. Plenty of beef up front. We aren't likely to get pushed around. 2. Should be our best shooting team in a while. 3. Defense - always. 4. Solid recruiting class. 5. Steve Shields. His teams play above their ability. 6. Best point guard situation since Graber.

WHAT I DON'T LIKE: 1. Only one starter returning. Hard to get around that glaring fact. 2. Huge amount of senior leadership gone. 3. "Almost" can become a habit. 4. Who will replace Fowler? 5. Will the mental toughness still be there?

My heart says higher than this, but logically, this is where we belong. We just lost too much, and even if the incoming talent is good, it will take a while to accilmate, probably. Losing an All-SBC forward and the DPOY are hard hits to take without feeling it. There are just too many question marks to rate this team much higher. They might finish a couple of notches further up the ladder, but for them to be even in the division title hunt is a stretch.

All I can say is that we'd best not finish 6th in the West, or the coaches will really be on the hot seat. I'll add, there's no way we're going to finish 6th in the West. We will at least be in the top three in the division, and could win it again. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I don't have any grand predictions. I do know Pappy studies this stuff much more than I do. Returning starters is often a pretty good measure of how a team will do, if they were at least competitive the year before. I doubt there really is going to be a whole lot of talent difference between 2nd through 6th teams in our division. Seems like we should fall in the middle somewhere.

As someone noted, winning the close games will determine how successful we are. Last season, somehow, we managed to win a lot of close games. We'll have to do that to finish higher than predicted for us this season.

(07-29-2009 05:37 PM)mjs Wrote:  I doubt there really is going to be a whole lot of talent difference between 2nd through 6th teams in our division. Seems like we should fall in the middle somewhere.

I think you are right, except I might make it 3 through 6. I do think Denver will have very good talent for their system, which is what counts. Might make it 3 through 7, but who knows about UNO?