(07-24-2009 11:00 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (07-24-2009 10:39 AM)Artifice Wrote: (07-24-2009 10:36 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (07-24-2009 10:21 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: It's too damn bad Obama couldn't of inherited the same situation Bush inherited.
Making Bush the problem does not make Obama the solution.
Agreed. But someone has to try.
Quote:This is going to get worse--a lot worse--before it gets better.
That was going to be the case no matter who took office. There is no one short of a movie or comic book character who could have fixed this mess in 6 months. And regardless of what anyone does, the economy, like your body, ultimately has to heal itself.
What Obama is doing is making it harder, not easier, for the economy to heal itself.
Things will get worse, not better, because of what Obama has done.
If he continues on the same path, things will continue to get worse.
You may not agree, so just watch and see what happens.
Two questions.
1. How would you define success for Obama in terms of things like inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, market indices, etc.?
2. Where would those indicators have to go for you to admit Obama is a failure?
Then let's watch and see where they go.
I'm not willing to give Obama the benefit of the "someone has to try" argument.
Trying only counts if he's trying something that has a chance to work.
And I'm sorry, but this just doesn't.
Unfortunately, Bush left things in a state where we can't afford too many more mistakes.
And Obama is making far more than his fair share of mistakes.
Let's start in reverse: First off, the phrasing of your #2 question pins me as an Obama supporter. That isn't the case. As you so clearly pointed out in your first post, recognizing that the last administration was the problem doesn't make Obama the answer. I didn't vote for him, because he never gave me enough reason to buy in, just like Kerry's "not Bush" campaign 5 years ago. This isnt a partisan issue to me because Im not partisan, I am just in favor of whatever works.
I get tired of saying that over and over. But back to your premise - your conclusion is as much guesswork as mine or the next guy's. You're a reasonably intelligent person, but that doesn't include the ability to see into the future. However, I respect your opinion even if I dsiagree with it.
Let me take your question and recast it - What I hoped to see out of McCain or Obama was to slow and then stop the downward spiral in 2009. Seeing leading economic indicators (not jobs - too much lag), moving in a opositive direction, back into the black by YE 2009 was what I hoped for/optimistically expected. I've built my short term investment strategy out of it, so I'd better hope I am right.
A word about housing starts, jobs reports, quarterly profits and other indicators - I take these #'s with a grain of salt, which is why I always discuss trends, and maybes, until we start to see definite patterns. The reason is because, for instance, someone who wants to preach a gloomy forecast can point to whichever group of numbers best suits his/her purpose. Early on in this recession, you could have pointed to measurables such as losses/loan defaults, etc. Once those begin to minimize, you can turn to a lagging indicator like jobs and use it to extend or further the recession based on whatever spin you apply. And vice versa.
The irony to me were all the hardcore partisan republicans denying the recession to their last breath until the day Obama was sworn in, and ever since that day, it's all they can talk about. Anytime you see someone arguing to such extremes, you know you have an unrealistic partisan on your hands.
Personally, I think we have a rough road ahead of us, but I am thinking we may be approaching the 2 steps forward/1 step back type of progress as the summer doldrums end in Sept. We definitely need for that to be true or we're all going to feel it.
![[Image: wapoobamabudget1.jpg]](http://blog.heritage.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/wapoobamabudget1.jpg)
