says a Hedge Fund Analysis

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2009/07...es-of.html


but will this one be "Great", ultimately thats up to Obama and the Dems. Keep tinkering, keep paying off interest groups under the guise of "Stimulus" and they get it. Only question is how the public will react this time around in fear and desperation? Embrace the Obamamessiah or revolt?

He is right. BTW, there is NOTHING the government can do to make the situation better, they can only make it worse. What is needed is TIME. but is not what the political class sells. They sell how much they are doing for you (with somebody else's money). Time was the answer in 30's & 40's and time will be the answer again. All the excess of the past 70-75 years have to be wrung out of the system and that MOUNTAINOUS debt destroyed. How is debt destroyed? Thru bankruptcies..... CA is BK ....many of our states are on deck ..... many cities in CA have already filed. People are walking away from homes and banks are writing off the debt. The problem with the GM bailout is that not enough debt was destroyed so GM will continue to hang on to the old. They had to redo the union contracts ..they had to redo their benefit programs..... had to redo their debt. They did not do enough so they will take that much longer if ever to get back where they should....... The government owing GM,CitI,others....and now angling for 15% of the economy with Obama care is a DISASTER. The storm is still out there gathering energy for another big blow.

(07-23-2009 09:55 AM)NIU05 Wrote:  He is right. BTW, there is NOTHING the government can do to make the situation better, they can only make it worse.

I disagree. I still believe that purging Gov't rolls, reducing taxes and burdensome regulation will help. There may be some short term pain (as displaced, RIFed gov't employees hit the streets) but that will rectify itself quickly as industry starts to pick up.

the Democrats won't do any of those things, hopefully a 94 type revolt will take place to thwart the "new New Deal"

there shoudl be of course a massive slash of Corporate Taxes and Cap Gains taxes for starters. but they will not do it.

(07-23-2009 08:57 AM)GGniner Wrote:  says a Hedge Fund Analysis

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2009/07...es-of.html


but will this one be "Great", ultimately thats up to Obama and the Dems. Keep tinkering, keep paying off interest groups under the guise of "Stimulus" and they get it. Only question is how the public will react this time around in fear and desperation? Embrace the Obamamessiah or revolt?

THe stock market is up 174 points and over 9000.

(07-23-2009 11:43 AM)RobertN Wrote:  THe stock market is up 174 points and over 9000.

....and Obama's plans aren't even implemented. I can't wait to hear you in a year.

I think it is too early to make that claim. I believe that those seeking profit in our limited free market will somehow save the day.

I admit though...the tipping point is close.

(07-23-2009 12:26 PM)Rebel Wrote:  

(07-23-2009 11:43 AM)RobertN Wrote:  THe stock market is up 174 points and over 9000.

....and Obama's plans aren't even implemented. I can't wait to hear you in a year.

Wait, werent you the one who was just railing on in other threads about how all our current problems are Obamas fault? You cant have it both ways.

(07-23-2009 01:19 PM)niuhuskie84 Wrote:  

(07-23-2009 12:26 PM)Rebel Wrote:  

(07-23-2009 11:43 AM)RobertN Wrote:  THe stock market is up 174 points and over 9000.

....and Obama's plans aren't even implemented. I can't wait to hear you in a year.

Wait, werent you the one who was just railing on in other threads about how all our current problems are Obamas fault? You cant have it both ways.

You honestly don't have a clue how the stock market works, do you?

(07-23-2009 10:05 AM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(07-23-2009 09:55 AM)NIU05 Wrote:  He is right. BTW, there is NOTHING the government can do to make the situation better, they can only make it worse.

I disagree. I still believe that purging Gov't rolls, reducing taxes and burdensome regulation will help. There may be some short term pain (as displaced, RIFed gov't employees hit the streets) but that will rectify itself quickly as industry starts to pick up.

DR. ...you're right.... In my mind I was referring to govt programs....handouts ...subsidies...etc..etc.... those programs will NOT get you out of an economic turmoil. The bottom line is we need TIME. We need about 10-15 years IF we don't get too stupid. If we get get stupid ...ITS OVER. Historically when there is economic turmoil you should see some wars. The haves and the people who starving and want food, they s/b game to have a big ass drag down fight. Keep this in mind Russia is way worse than we are and China there has been recent riots about the austerity cutbacks. The pressure on the pot is moving towards boiling.

Reb,

Do I have to go and find the post where you said it would crash 6 months ago. You obviously don't have a clue either. Especially when you said you took all your money out. That was the time to double down. DBL DOWN. Which I advised you to do. Look at FITB btw. The stock was at 1 dollar when I said I was going for broke. UP 8x's over...... an octagowhatever bag.

My prediction was that it would hit 9000 by late summer, then crater in the fall and could be as low as 6000 by the end of the year, on the way to as low as 3800. I've done pretty well betting on the run up to 9, and my brokers and I were on the phone today about how to restructure for the fall.

One possible change. When congress gets back from the August recess, I have a feeling that talks with the folks back home are going to mean a lot more blue dogs return than the number who left. If that group gets large enough, and united enough, they can be the swing vote on everything, and at that point we might restore some sanity to the proceedings. If that happens, maybe the approach will shift enough to save us from the crash. Then again, we might be too far gone already. I have some indicators that I'm watching to tell me which, and right now it's not entirely clear.

Mach the last section of charts that Hedge Fund analysis cites, shows how we are tracking the Great Depression Stock charts so far

Quote:We are now in the early stages of a depression. The economic indicators we follow to track real economic activity are all signaling a slowdown of massive proportions. You wouldn’t know it reading the mainstream papers of course – they all focus on the relative decline in the slowdown’s intensity."