By Dennis Dodd
SportsLine.com
It's so obvious and so easy to pick USC to win the Pac-10, let's go the other direction. Here's some reasons why the Trojans won't win the Pac-10 and/or national championship:
Pacific-10
* Mike Williams goes to Canada -- for the bacon, not the football.
* Norm Chow goes to BYU before the job is even open.
* Matt Leinart goes Hollywood.
* Defensive line coach/master recruiter Ed Orgeron goes native, which in this case means Cajun. (He's from Louisiana)
* Reggie Bush starts playing like George Bush.
* LenDale White starts stalking Vanna White.
* Smog alert in and around the Coliseum.
* The Pac-10 goes retro and defense no longer matters.
* UCLA starts to matter in the Pac-10. On second thought, never mind.
* A break develops in that concertina wire erected by Pete Carroll that surrounds the fertile Southland recruiting grounds.
* Former USC sports information assistant Will Ferrell starts giving $100 handshakes to players. Lord knows Anchorman can afford it.
* The Big One hits.
* Mike Stoops is way, way ahead of schedule at Arizona.
* Paris Hilton sniffs a photo op and begins dating the offensive line.
* Paul Hackett drops by practice.
* O.J. drops by practice.
* The receivers really are that inexperienced.
* So is the offensive line (one senior starter, one returning starter).
* The BCS ratings work their "magic" again.
Team-by-team:
1. Southern California: John McKay would be proud. John Robinson should be proud. Carroll has the Trojans back to where they were in the 1970s and '80s. The key? Defense. USC has a combined plus-54 turnover margin in Carroll's three years. Yes, the offense sparkles, but defense was the reason USC turned it around. No team in the Pac-10, and not many teams nationally, play D this aggressively. Leinart goes in as the Heisman favorite, but the defense has three legitimate All-American candidates in linebacker Matt Grootegoed, defensive tackle Shaun Cody and safety Darnell Bing. With all this, Mike Williams is literally the difference between a national championship and just a Pac-10 championship. With him, the Trojans might be the best team in the nation. Without him, the receiving corps is inexperienced. Call it an 11-1 season. Depending on when that one loss comes, USC could be playing for a second consecutive national championship.
2. California: Jeff Tedford has assembled a poor man's USC. Nine starters return on a defense that allowed 21 points or less in four of the past five regular-season games. USC is looking forward to the Oct. 9 revenge game in the Coliseum, but don't think it's a slam dunk for the Trojans. Cal is 5-4 in the past nine meetings against USC as an underdog. And if it wasn't for Leinart, quarterback Aaron Rodgers would be on a lot of Heisman lists.
3. Washington State: Disregarded by most this year after three consecutive 10-win seasons, the Cougars should be contenders again. Bill Doba, in his second season, has to replace his quarterback and best receiver but has a fairly strong defense. Middle linebacker Will Derting is a returning All-Pac 10 talent. Doba, who shared conference coach of the year honors with Carroll, outsmarted Texas in a wonderful 28-20 Holiday Bowl victory.
4. Oregon: Mike Bellotti picked a bad time to have to rebuild the Ducks. There are signficant questions at quarterback and running back, two positions where Bellotti is used to having NFL prospects. Kellen Clemens has the job to himself after throwing 2,400 yards as a sophomore. Tiny Terrell Jackson (5-feet-9, 188) takes over at running back as a freshman. After a 6-0 start in 2002 and 4-0 start in 2003, the Ducks have faded down the stretch (combined 5-11 in the second half of both seasons). It could happen again this season. After Oct. 2, the schedule includes trips to Washington State, Cal and Oregon State.
5. UCLA: Fifth? A bit of a shocker, eh? The Bruins are being dismissed all around the Pac-10. Carroll has practically run Karl Dorrell out of town in terms of recruiting and media attention. Well, Dorrell did coax a 6-6 regular season and bowl game out of the Bruins. Nine starters return on offense, which is reason enough to think the Bruins could go 4-4 again in conference. The schedule is friendly enough UCLA could be 4-1 heading to Cal on Oct. 16. Things aren't as bad as they seem.
6. Oregon State: After having Steven Jackson to hand and dump the ball off to, quarterback Derek Anderson will have to do more on his own. That's a bad thing. Even with Jackson a threat in the backfield, the inconsistent Anderson threw as many interceptions as touchdowns (24). Mike Riley inherited 15 returning starters from Dennis Erickson in 2003. This will be a key year for Riley as his talent has to start paying dividends.
7. Arizona State: Sun Devils have won four, eight and five games in Dirk Koetter's three seasons. What to expect this season? We're thinking more like last season's 5-7 year that included only two Pac-10 victories. If that's the case, then the likeable Koetter is in trouble after fabulous success at Boise State. Quarterback Andrew Walter is the biggest offensive threat. The defense must improve for the Devils to go to a bowl. Watch for Devil Back (rover) Matt Fawley who will play closer to the line in the 4-3-4 alignment.
8. Washington: One of the most forgotten teams in the country. Rick Neuheisel still gets written about more than Huskies coach Keith Gilbertson in Seattle. There are more holes on this team than when Jim Lambright gave way to Slick Rick. In the past three years, the Huskies have won eight, seven and six games. Look for another decline this year.
9. Arizona: This is Mike Stoops' adjustment year. He's run off all of the Mackovic malcontents. The Wildcats will definitely struggle, but by the end of the season, the defense will look a lot like Oklahoma's -- in alignment, if not production. A 2-9 season looks likely, but underneath the surface, the Wildcats will be making huge gains. They will be contending for their first Rose Bowl within three years.
10. Stanford: Buddy Teevens will be in serious trouble if he doesn't turn things around quickly. Since Ty Willingham left, the Cardinal are 6-16. Stanford fans can stomach losing, as long as they are entertained. Five of last year's seven losses were by at least 12 points.
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