Southern Miss and the Post Season
It's Tuesday, November 18th
What is the future post season like for USM?
First of all, what are the current records of teams which can make the post season?
In the West,
Tulsa at..................8-2
Rice at...................7-3
Houston at..............6-4
are locks for the post season
UTEP at..................5-5
can earn a spot with a win their last two weeks.
In the East,
East Carolina at........6-4 (4-2)
Marshall at...............4-6 (3-3)
Memphis at..............5-5 (3-3)
USM at....................5-6 (3-4)
USM can do nothing to help their cause Saturday November 22nd as they have a BYE.
East Carolina wins the East on Saturday if they win at UAB.
If East Carolina loses, it doesn't really hurt their season at this point.
If Marshall loses at Rice, their post season pretty much ends as they will be 4-7 and 3-4 in Conference.
If Memphis loses to UCF, their record would be 5-6 for the season and 3-4 in conference.
At this point UCF sort of enters the picture. They would not be bowl eligible with a 4-7 record but would have a 3-4 record in conference.
Tulsa and Tulane game would not effect USM.
Houston and UTEP would effect USM only in that it would cement UTEP as bowl eligible if the Miners win.
If the above games go as described with East Carolina, Marshall, and Memphis losing and UCF and UAB winning, then the East would look like this going into the final week.
East Carolina would be.......6-5 (4-3)
Memphis would be.............5-6 (3-4)
USM would be...................5-6 (3-4)
Marshall would be..............4-7 (3-4)
UCF would be...................4-7 (3-4)
UAB would be...................4-7 (3-4)
Looking at that and as incredible as it might be (looking back 4 weeks ago), USM would be in the thick of things for the East Division champion. (The following is only possible, bear in mind, if East Carolina, Marshall, and Memphis all lose the weekend of November 22nd).
USM must beat SMU November 29th for any post season for Southern Miss.
All the teams in the East will know their possible fates as East Carolina and UTEP play on Friday the 28th.
Again, an East Carolina win and the Pirates are East Division champs. A loss by East Carolina will open Pandora's Box on Saturday.
USM could win the East if both Memphis loses to Tulane and Marshall loses to Tulsa. A win by either of those teams and they would hold the tie-breaker over USM by virtue of their wins over USM. Victory by UCF or UAB would not effect USM's Division Championship as USM holds the tie breakers over those teams.
So, in retrospect and having to rely on so much that is out of their hands at the moment, Southern Miss can win the East and play in the Championship game if a)USM beats SMU and b) East Carolina, Memphis, and Marshall loses their respective last two games.
With all that said, USM would still have to win the Championship game to remain bowl eligible. A loss there and Southern Miss would fall to 6-7. If they don't play in the Championship but do get to 6-6 with win over SMU, then by not playing in the Championship game they are still bowl eligible.
I'll end this here for now. Let's see how the first weekend plays out and then see what could happen next weekend.
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Southern Miss and the Post Season
