(04-29-2009 11:35 AM)GGniner Wrote:  as long as the US GDP is the #1 in the world, only Insanely stupid and suicidal investors will actually leave the US, and with nowhere to go at the moment.

So long as the dollar doesn't crater, you're right.

The China scenario is one dollar-cratering possibility. Another is the need to print money to pay off debts once they start to come due.

its all about Economic Growth, which obvioulsy isn't happening at the moment but previously had been almost continually for the last two decades.

If Economic Growth continues to retract for years to come, we will be doomed by our Debt. Odds are against it, alot of it comes down to just how stupid and anti-business the Democrats will be, and how much damage the next 2yrs can do long term.

Not long ago, the more optimistic Economic Growth forecasters projections for the future meant that our Debt today is basically nothing, the equivalent of winning the lottery and then paying off a car loan.

I do think China may attempt to take Taiwan, maybe even North Korea to get rid of Kim, don't think they'll be trying to screw themselves with dumping dollars, even if they wanted to.

(04-29-2009 12:08 PM)GGniner Wrote:  its all about Economic Growth, which obvioulsy isn't happening at the moment but previously had been almost continually for the last two decades.
If Economic Growth continues to retract for years to come, we will be doomed by our Debt. Odds are against it, alot of it comes down to just how stupid and anti-business the Democrats will be, and how much damage the next 2yrs can do long term.
Not long ago, the more optimistic Economic Growth forecasters projections for the future meant that our Debt today is basically nothing, the equivalent of winning the lottery and then paying off a car loan.
I do think China may attempt to take Taiwan, maybe even North Korea to get rid of Kim, don't think they'll be trying to screw themselves with dumping dollars, even if they wanted to.

I would think that if we could convince China to take Korea instead of Taiwan, we would have a very successful Chinese policy. That would certainly be a goal of mine if I were making the decisions.

But make no mistake. At some point they will want Taiwan. And whatever it takes to get it, they will do. On one level, it's more emotional than rational. If one star bailed out of our flag, how hard would we try to get it back?

(04-29-2009 12:08 PM)GGniner Wrote:  its all about Economic Growth, which obvioulsy isn't happening at the moment but previously had been almost continually for the last two decades.
If Economic Growth continues to retract for years to come, we will be doomed by our Debt. Odds are against it, alot of it comes down to just how stupid and anti-business the Democrats will be, and how much damage the next 2yrs can do long term.

Unless the republicans become a fiscal conservative party again, AND take over both houses of congress in 2010, AND that's soon enough to undo what will be done between now and then, I think we're looking at 2020 before we get back to economic health. That's three long shots that ALL must come through. Otherwise, it's stick a fork in us time.

(04-29-2009 12:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I would think that if we could convince China to take Korea instead of Taiwan, we would have a very successful Chinese policy. That would certainly be a goal of mine if I were making the decisions.

But make no mistake. At some point they will want Taiwan. And whatever it takes to get it, they will do. On one level, it's more emotional than rational. If one star bailed out of our flag, how hard would we try to get it back?

Owl:

Though this is only tangential to the thread topic, it's interesting. On the whole, Americans just don't "get" the Chinese. It's not that the Chinese don't understand the U.S. position on things like Taiwan, it's that the Chinese don't care about it. So the U.S. can talk about "discussing" Taiwan and "different strategies" related to Taiwan, but at the end of the day, the Chinese position is relatively simple and unchanged - they are part of our country and we'll deal with them (and everything else internally) any damn way we please.

In casual conversations the Chinese on the streets (those who can speak English, since I don't speak Chinese) have absolutely no reluctance to make it clear to Americans that, "We're going to take Taiwan back, and you are not going to stop us." I was really taken aback by just how open and forceful they were about this.

You are right BGSU, it's not that they don't understand our position, it's that they don't care what it is.

Right. And I've never gotten the sense that they take that sort of approach aggressively, like "try and stop us." It's really more just a matter of fact.

(04-29-2009 12:52 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  In casual conversations the Chinese on the streets (those who can speak English, since I don't speak Chinese) have absolutely no reluctance to make it clear to Americans that, "We're going to take Taiwan back, and you are not going to stop us." I was really taken aback by just how open and forceful they were about this.

You are right BGSU, it's not that they don't understand our position, it's that they don't care what it is.

And you believe them for what reason? It has been my experience that the government of China does not give a flying f--- about what their citizens think.

I don't doubt that the Chinese will eventually take Taiwan back, but it won't be due to what some idiot on the street says.

You could walk in to just about any city in the United States and find lots of people who say the US should just nuke the entire middle east and be done with it... would that make someone believe that the US is going to do it?

(04-29-2009 10:53 AM)GrayBeard Wrote:  The real turning point in the global economy will be when Israel strikes Iran. It will be a quick downhill slide after that.

Why do you have to change the subject and bring the Isralies into it. Oop. I forgot. We are talking about the Israleis when we talk about business and our politics since they run both.

(04-29-2009 11:20 AM)GGniner Wrote:  

(04-29-2009 10:20 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  The tanking economy means that if you have good credit and an 80% LTV, you can refinance at 4.65% for 30YR Fix this morning. That is INSANE.

add to that the falling home prices., now you can get a nice house for not too much per month compared to a year ago.

Quote:Taiwan, we send in the Seventh Fleet, and China responds by dumping our debt for a dime on the dollar?

only China would lose, the US would still be obligated to the original terms of the Bond contracts when they come due, just to the new owners who would have gotten a steal.

Yeah, now you can afford that dobublewide you have always wanted.

(04-29-2009 11:44 AM)BGSUalum1987 Wrote:  U.S. Economy = Frightened turtle?

Nope. Republican party=frightened turtle.

(04-29-2009 12:52 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  You are right BGSU, it's not that they don't understand our position, it's that they don't care what it is.

They may not understand our position, they may not care what our position is, but the PLA is in no position to invade and take Taiwan right now, or probably decades into the future. The PLA military leaders understand this reality.

Taiwanese military strategy is dyopic - they have one plan, one strategy and one order of battle - and that is the defense of the island. This static defense policy plus the probable US, Japanese and Singaporean (not sure if S. Korea would join the fight, considering their border with the the Chinese proxy N. Korea) and other Western nations air superiority, the Chinese lack of a blue water navy and serious deficiencies in logistics to supply any PLA forces on the island mean one of two things:

1. Taiwan is obliterated through force (missles, bombing and most destructively, sabatoge from PLA Special Forces and sleeper cells)
2 .Taiwan and it's allies hold out, and repel the PLA.

My opinion is that #2 is the more likely scenario. This would be an interesting battle as outside of the initial island invasion, there would be little man-to-man fighting. Taiwanes doctrine is the fight the repel the initial invasion, then retreat to the mountainous interior to fight a guerilla war. Most would be fought in the air, and on and under the surface of the ocean. There is little argument that the PLA is not ready to take on a Western trained military coalition at the time in the air or on and under the sea.

Of course, this assumes the US is involved. No US, no involvement from anyone else.

if you are interested in the China thing, today they released an interview on the topic with former Aussie leader, John Howard on China

http://tv.nationalreview.com/uncommonknowledge/

he makes some interesting points.

If the US goes under, I'd consider Australia....check out his other two segments, first being on Iraq

(04-29-2009 10:36 AM)DrTorch Wrote:  I do confess I don't understand current stock prices and consumer confidence. It seems like a calm before the storm...but I don't understand the reasons.

I have read where this is a pattern during recoveries, and generally those that buy at this stage get soaked. I think it was in a John Mauldin newsletter (John is a Rice alumnus). See "Thoughts on the Market Rebound".

(04-29-2009 12:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  But make no mistake. At some point they will want Taiwan. And whatever it takes to get it, they will do. On one level, it's more emotional than rational. If one star bailed out of our flag, how hard would we try to get it back?

One of our hosts in Shanghai offered: "Taiwan ... Chinese Province". I suspect that man-in-the-street attitudes are a function of the official propaganda. It's more concerning to me that the government is fostering nationalism (another case-in-point-is the bruhaha with Japanese businesses a few years ago). The (second) tallest building in the world was completed last year in Shanghai. I was told by another host that the architect was Japanese and designed a rising sun in the top of the building. When people realized what it was, construction was stopped, the building redesigned, yada yada. There may be no more truth in this as there is in the "Owl" buildings in our state capital, but that just serves as an indication of the nationalism.

(04-29-2009 01:33 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(04-29-2009 12:52 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  You are right BGSU, it's not that they don't understand our position, it's that they don't care what it is.

They may not understand our position, they may not care what our position is, but the PLA is in no position to invade and take Taiwan right now, or probably decades into the future. The PLA military leaders understand this reality.
Taiwanese military strategy is dyopic - they have one plan, one strategy and one order of battle - and that is the defense of the island. This static defense policy plus the probable US, Japanese and Singaporean (not sure if S. Korea would join the fight, considering their border with the the Chinese proxy N. Korea) and other Western nations air superiority, the Chinese lack of a blue water navy and serious deficiencies in logistics to supply any PLA forces on the island mean one of two things:
1. Taiwan is obliterated through force (missles, bombing and most destructively, sabatoge from PLA Special Forces and sleeper cells)
2 .Taiwan and it's allies hold out, and repel the PLA.
My opinion is that #2 is the more likely scenario. This would be an interesting battle as outside of the initial island invasion, there would be little man-to-man fighting. Taiwanes doctrine is the fight the repel the initial invasion, then retreat to the mountainous interior to fight a guerilla war. Most would be fought in the air, and on and under the surface of the ocean. There is little argument that the PLA is not ready to take on a Western trained military coalition at the time in the air or on and under the sea.
Of course, this assumes the US is involved. No US, no involvement from anyone else.

The Chinese are in the process of fixing the blue water navy deficiency, at least as far as having a green-water capability that will extend as far as Taiwan. They may not have a carrier by 2013, but they can pretty much do what they need regarding Taiwan with land-based air assets. They are also putting together a fairly substantial gator navy.

The debt issue impacts the US involvement assumption. The more of our debt they hold, the more leverage they can exercise. Dumping the debt is one, but by no means their only, option. We may very well find ourselves owing so much money to China that we lose our freedom of action. That is not a good thing, particularly considering that China is in a position to take a loss on the debt if it furthers their strategic objectives.

When can we get Obama out?

As soon as you're banned again firm...