Get your votes in before the polls close on the east coast. Since I dragged my feet on this, it's for bragging rights only.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?...4Fxtc4gNLQ

Tex,

Can you post what the criteria are that you are collecting? My work won't allow me to access Google spreadsheets through the firewall. (And I may not be the only one with that restriction.) I'll PM you with my answers.

Quote:2008 Parliament Election Pool
Enter as often as you like. Your last answer (they are timestamped) will be the one that counts. Entries must be timestamped no later than 18:00:00 on November 4, 2008 (Central Standard Time).

In order to win, you must correctly pick the winner of the Electoral College and have the closest prediction for electoral vote count (either over or under). If there is a tie, those players who are tied will face the same question with regards to US Senate (must correctly pick the majority party and be closest to number of seats held.) If there is still a tie, the players tied through that point will face the same question with regards to US House.

If it's still tied after that, we'll request an expedited hearing from the US Supreme Court, a la Bush v. Gore.

* = Required

Name
___________________________

Winner of Electoral College *
+ John McCain
+ Barack Obama
+ Tie: 269-269

Winner's Electoral Vote Count *
_______________

Tiebreaker 1a: Majority Party in Senate *
+ Democrats
+ Republicans
+ Tie: 49-49 (and 2 independents)

Tiebreaker 1b: Majority Party Seats in Senate *
Do include two current Independents (Lieberman & Sanders)
(# of total seats for Majority Party)
______________

Tiebreaker 2a: Majority Party in House *
+ Democrats
+ Republicans

Tiebreaker 2b: Majority Party Seats in House *
(# of total seats for Majority Party)
_____________

You results thus far are scary at best. . .

RiceDoc Wrote:You results thus far are scary at best. . .

Don't worry... Exit polls tend to overstate the Democratic vote.

FYI, here are the entries so far: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p...4Fxtc4gNLQ (anybody want to lay claim to the 459 electoral vote entry.)

As far as our results vs D bias in exit polls... our little game should be more reflective of a political futures market. Ours would have more irrational skew (at the individual level) than such a market simply due to the fact that we're not putting any money into it, but still...

texd Wrote:As far as our results vs D bias in exit polls... our little game should be more reflective of a political futures market. Ours would have more irrational skew (at the individual level) than such a market simply due to the fact that we're not putting any money into it, but still...

Yeah that was just a joke to make our Republican friends feel a little better (for a little while, anyhow)...

Texd is looking good, depending on how the close races come out.

Edit: Unless we use the closest without going over rule!

And now, finally, we have results as Coleman concedes in MN... winner was the closest in absolute terms to the actual Electoral College vote. The House and Senate picks (tiebreakers) were not needed.

Owl75 is the overall winner. RiceDoc and I nailed the Senate. erice was closest to the House (one off).

Come November 2010, it will be a different story.

(06-30-2009 06:24 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Come November 2010, it will be a different story.

More than once in the last eight months, I have heard one Dem or another say something along the lines of "We decided that question last November, and we won". I expect a lot of silence from those same people after November 2010.

I'm not so sure. The strength of the Republican bench isn't exactly showing well right now for candidates who can pull the upsets. But stranger things (like 1994) have happened. Neither party should feel optimistic about that election.

(06-30-2009 10:28 PM)gsloth Wrote:  I'm not so sure. The strength of the Republican bench isn't exactly showing well right now for candidates who can pull the upsets. But stranger things (like 1994) have happened. Neither party should feel optimistic about that election.

IMO, the Honeymoon is over for the Dems. As the unemployment numbers keep rising, that 39% Democrat approval figure will keep falling. Unemployment is 9.4% now, and I think it will hit 11% by start of 4th Q 2009.

The Democrat approval figures can only go down with Health Care Reform and Illegal Alien Amnesty next on the table. Stuff like filing Bills at 3:00 AM with little opportunity to study them before a Vote, and other railroad Parliamentary tactics used by Pelosi just play into the Republicans hands.

Throw in a foreign policy crisis that embarrasses Obama (making him look like another Jimmy Carter) and that is the nail in the coffin.

In the end it boils down to the economy. Anything over 10% unemployment at the start of 2010, some Democrat Congressman may have a Primary challenger. [/color]

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Republican congressional candidates rebounded this week and pulled ahead again of Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. The last time the GOP held a lead was in early May.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 41% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 39% would choose the Democratic candidate.

Support for the GOP rose two points over the past week, while support for Democrats dropped two points. This is only the fourth time the GOP has held a lead in over two years.

The seesaw nature and closeness of these findings appear to reflect the public's generally low opinion of most members of Congress and their accomplishments. Just 18% of U.S. voters say Congress is doing a good or excellent job.

In May, 23% felt that way, which was the highest support for Congress in two years.

Democratic support on the congressional ballot has ranged from a low of 38% to a high of 50% in the past 12 months. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide. Democrats held a six- or seven-point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. That began to slip in early February, and since mid-April, the parties have been roughly even.

After favoring Democrats slightly more last week, men again prefer the GOP by a 45% to 35% margin. Women still favor Democrats slightly more, 42% to 38%.

Voters not affiliated with either party favor the GOP 37% to 23%, showing little change since last week.

Americans have mixed feelings about the historic climate change bill that passed the House on Friday, but 42% say it will hurt the U.S. economy.

The economy may be the number one issue on Congress' agenda, but 74% of Americans trust their own judgment more than that of the average member of Congress when it comes to economic issues facing the nation.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c...nal_ballot

(06-30-2009 10:28 PM)gsloth Wrote:  I'm not so sure. The strength of the Republican bench isn't exactly showing well right now for candidates who can pull the upsets. But stranger things (like 1994) have happened. Neither party should feel optimistic about that election.

Economy in summer 2010 will be a big, if not decisive, factor.

If the economy (or rather the SP 500) is in the tank, Obama's favorables should be too. That might lead to a the R's picking up some seats. Won't be a 2006 type numbers tho'. I'd love to see a road map of how the republicans could take the House. I suppose a foreign policy calamity might get them there.

But I suspect those "shovel ready" projects will be in full gear by 2nd quarter 2010 and you'll see a down tick in unemployment.

(06-30-2009 10:28 PM)gsloth Wrote:  I'm not so sure. The strength of the Republican bench isn't exactly showing well right now for candidates who can pull the upsets. But stranger things (like 1994) have happened. Neither party should feel optimistic about that election.

Well, anything can happen, but historically the party in power loses seats in mid-terms. How many, and which ones, remains to be seen, but a narrowing of the gap is a reasonable expectation. Certainly if the election results in a 20-30 seat House swing, a 3-4 seat Senate swing, we will not be hearing the dems saying anymore that "That was decided in the last election, and we won", we will hear nothing at all from them about what the voters said.

I expect Obama's personal ratings to remain high - heck, even I like the guy personally, though not his policies. However, he won't be on the 2010 ballots.

A lot of promises were made, and the breaking of those promises will be taken out on incumbents, esp. democrats. A lot of people voted for change, and since that was left vague, it means different things to different people, many of whom will be somewhat-to-very disappointed and some who will lose the fervor they felt in 2008. High unemployment, tax increases, possible terrorist activities, Iran/North Korea, Gitmo prisoners, high gasoline prices, don't ask/tell, etc. - lots of room for disappointment. A year from now the "Bush is responsible for everything bad" mantra will be wearing thin. I think that the Republicans don't need particularly strong candidates in 2010, any more than the dems needed them in 2008 (Al Franken?), as the voters will again spend their votes voting against somebody/something rather than for somebody/something.

So, IMO, the Republican will make gains in both houses. Not enough to have majorities, but enough to slow the runaway train. JMHO.

The Senate is going to be a tough nut for the Republicans to crack. They've got 18 seats to defend, but 5 of them will not have a current incumbent running (and if they get their way, Bunning in KY will get out of the way, too). The Dems are defending 16 seats, plus 2 open seats (Biden and Clinton), with only 1 retirement in the pool of 16. There will be a lot of factors here, but the advantage in incumbency for the Dems and where the elections are will be a tough one to overcome.

I'm probably rooting for the Republicans to make the gains, but right now, it doesn't look good. But we still have 15+ months of news to drive the real narrative for those elections. It will be interesting, if you're into politics.

I remember when pundits were saying things like "perhaps the Dems shouldn't even run a candidate in 92" because Bush was unbeatable, so who knows what will happen?

The incumbent party usually loses seats in the house mid-term, and the Dems are holding some that are in Republican districts, so I'd be surprised if the they didn't lose 15-30 seats. Senate, on the other hand, if I had to bet I'd say they gain a seat or two. The map is just not good for the Rs.

(07-01-2009 11:49 AM)gsloth Wrote:  The Senate is going to be a tough nut for the Republicans to crack. They've got 18 seats to defend, but 5 of them will not have a current incumbent running (and if they get their way, Bunning in KY will get out of the way, too). The Dems are defending 16 seats, plus 2 open seats (Biden and Clinton), with only 1 retirement in the pool of 16. There will be a lot of factors here, but the advantage in incumbency for the Dems and where the elections are will be a tough one to overcome.

I'm probably rooting for the Republicans to make the gains, but right now, it doesn't look good. But we still have 15+ months of news to drive the real narrative for those elections. It will be interesting, if you're into politics.

You also have to consider KBH running against Perry in the Texas Governor's Race in 2010.

Her term isn't expired. If she beats Perry in the Primary she can pick someone to serve out her term.

(07-01-2009 05:31 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  You also have to consider KBH running against Perry in the Texas Governor's Race in 2010.

Her term isn't expired. If she beats Perry in the Primary she can pick someone to serve out her term.

She could name someone to serve in her stead until a special election, but only if she remains the senator up until the point she is able to be sworn in as Gov -- so that she could resign and be sworn in immediately -- or if Perry leaves the seat vacant for her to make an appointment. They would not serve out the remainder of the term unless they won the special, which is required.