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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #1
Predictions
Everyone knows I am PessimisticOwl when it comes to an Obama administration. I am going to make a few predictions re the Obama Administration, then I would would like to see the predictions others, particularly Obama supporters.

In six months, we will see the new tax policies start to take shape. The tax cuts will be shallow, the tax hikes deep. Half the country will see higher taxes in one form or another. Biden has corectly predicted that Obama will be tested - I think it will be Russia first, but Iran and North Korea may take a turn as well, and the Islamic terrorists may also make an attack, just to see how BO will react. he will refer the matter to the UN, I expect. Everything bad will still be GWB's fault, any good thing thing will be claimed by the Obama camp. Osama bin Laden will still be alive and well in Afgahnistan.

Two years, the recession will still be deep, extended by BO's corporate tax policies. American will be tired of hearing it is all Bush's fault, and they will start asking "What change? Nothing has changed". The troop pullouts from Iraq will have been "temporarily" halted, and the remaining inadequate forces will be at increased risk due to undermanning and an increase in insurrectionist activity. Troop deaths will be higher than they are now. Osama bin Laden will still be alive and well and living in safety.

Four years, and the re-election theme will be "Bush left such a mess it will take two terms to clean it up", but americans are long weary of the Bush=blame campaign. Iran will have the bomb, and BO will have referred the matter to the UN. North Korea, trying to keep up with the Jones', will be restarting their bomb program, unless of course we give them a lot aid instead. Bo wil take up the matter with the UN. Osama bin Laden will alive and well and honored, living in Iran.

Everyone is welcome to add their own predictions, both positive and negative. I am especially interested in hearing the rosy predictions of the Obama-ites, of the wonderful change he will bring and how all our lives will be better in two years and four years. Please, some details this time, not just glittering generalities in undefinable terms like "The tax code will be more fair".
11-04-2008 10:06 AM
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Gravy Owl Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Predictions
OptimisticOwl Wrote:Everything bad will still be GWB's fault, any good thing thing will be claimed by the Obama camp.
I agree with this prediction. It'll be just like the Republicans in 2001.

Other than that, I don't know. He could end up being great, he could end up being a disaster. He could possibly be as bad as a right-left mirror image of W.
11-04-2008 12:01 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Predictions
OptimisticOwl Wrote:Everyone knows I am PessimisticOwl when it comes to an Obama administration. I am going to make a few predictions re the Obama Administration, then I would would like to see the predictions others, particularly Obama supporters.

In six months, we will see the new tax policies start to take shape. The tax cuts will be shallow, the tax hikes deep. Half the country will see higher taxes in one form or another. Biden has corectly predicted that Obama will be tested - I think it will be Russia first, but Iran and North Korea may take a turn as well, and the Islamic terrorists may also make an attack, just to see how BO will react. he will refer the matter to the UN, I expect. Everything bad will still be GWB's fault, any good thing thing will be claimed by the Obama camp. Osama bin Laden will still be alive and well in Afgahnistan.

Two years, the recession will still be deep, extended by BO's corporate tax policies. American will be tired of hearing it is all Bush's fault, and they will start asking "What change? Nothing has changed". The troop pullouts from Iraq will have been "temporarily" halted, and the remaining inadequate forces will be at increased risk due to undermanning and an increase in insurrectionist activity. Troop deaths will be higher than they are now. Osama bin Laden will still be alive and well and living in safety.

Four years, and the re-election theme will be "Bush left such a mess it will take two terms to clean it up", but americans are long weary of the Bush=blame campaign. Iran will have the bomb, and BO will have referred the matter to the UN. North Korea, trying to keep up with the Jones', will be restarting their bomb program, unless of course we give them a lot aid instead. Bo wil take up the matter with the UN. Osama bin Laden will alive and well and honored, living in Iran.

Everyone is welcome to add their own predictions, both positive and negative. I am especially interested in hearing the rosy predictions of the Obama-ites, of the wonderful change he will bring and how all our lives will be better in two years and four years. Please, some details this time, not just glittering generalities in undefinable terms like "The tax code will be more fair".

That's pretty much what I'm expecting, except I rather doubt that Sunni Osama will end up in Shia Iran. The only question I have is why anyone in his right mind would want to stay around to live through that.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2008 12:24 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
11-04-2008 12:16 PM
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Caelligh Offline
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RE: Predictions
I don't expect the next 4-8 years to be rosy regardless of who wins the election. I just think that McCain is more likely to make what I consider to be bad decisions. For example, under a McCain administration, I could foresee an overturned Roe v. Wade, less separation of church and state, less funding for scientific research, less support for environmental/energy reforms, and weakened relationships with our foreign allies.
11-04-2008 12:26 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Predictions
Caelligh Wrote:I don't expect the next 4-8 years to be rosy regardless of who wins the election. I just think that McCain is more likely to make what I consider to be bad decisions. For example, under a McCain administration, I could foresee an overturned Roe v. Wade, less separation of church and state, less funding for scientific research, less support for environmental/energy reforms, and weakened relationships with our foreign allies.

See, I just don't get this.

Does McCain have some great track record of voting against reasonable protections for abortion rights? We've had PLENTY of Republicans run and get elected on FAR more religious agendas than his, and its still the law of the land... yet for some reason... This (by all measures) moderate Republican is going to turn the tide??

Does McCain have a history of supporting the religious right?? Seems to me he pretty publicly called out the religious right... and only after getting the nomination did he seek dialogue on areas of accordance, not discord with them.

McCain was the first to mention a $300byn grant for battery technology... and for a Republican, he's pretty environmentally friendly. He voted AGAINST most drilling with technology 30 years old and oil at $20/bbl... and only supported it more recently because of $100+ oil and better drilling technology.

WEAKENED relationships with our allies?? This is the only man in the race that knows anything about what our enemies think about what goes on in this country. He is the only one who knows first hand how what we say and do "plays" overseas. He knows how what we say and do impacts our allies, and puts them in no-win situations. He is the only one who would be more likely to limit the military's role to its suited purpose... military action... rather than the global peacekeepers and aid workers which SOUNDS good, unless the local bad guys are stealing the aid and keeping the peace keeps despots in power... which makes us the enemies of the people we're trying to help (sound familiar?)

The way he handled Falwell and the others is EXACTLY how I want our foreign relations handled. You call them out on their crap... and THEN you seek areas of agreement. You tell them, THIS will not be tolerated... but I'd love to hear your other views. That is EXACTLY where Obama falls down on his negotiations. He says no pre-conditions for talks with Iran. Since "talks" generally mean, what do I have to give you to get what I want... question number one should be... Is there ANY scenario under which I can get what I want? If the answer is no, then we have nothing to talk about. Call them out... Tell Iran, I want Israel to exist beside Palestine in peace. If the response is, I cannot let that happen... then you tell them to call me when you change your mind. You DON'T say... here's some aid... how about now... here's some weapons, how about now.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2008 12:56 PM by Hambone10.)
11-04-2008 12:55 PM
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Barrett Offline
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RE: Predictions
Agreed, Calleigh.

I would just point out that, even under a McCain presidency, anything bad would be blamed as a lingering effect of the Bush years, and anything good would be credited to McCain's leadership. Politicians are politicians, no matter if they're Republicans or Democrats. I don't see it as a moral failling--at least not one of any higher order than that of any other politician--if the Obama Administration takes more credit than is due and deflects more blame than is justified.

On a similar note, maybe it will be true that Obama will be tested by a foreign entity within the first year or so of his administration. But anti-Obama people point to this as some kind of character failing on Obama's part. Bush was tested on 9/11 in the worst terrorist attack ever on American soil. Was that because Bush was somehow lacking in virtue in that first year? (Snarky aside: the lack of virtue manifested later in his administration.) Were those who voted for Bush in 2000 somehow the enablers of the 9/11 attacks for putting Bush in office? I know that's not what anyone here is saying, but let's let the answer be clear: of course not. If Obama is tested (and I hope he isn't), then I trust (moreso than I do McCain) that he will respond in a manner that I agree with.

As for whether the troops will be out of Iraq within a couple of years, who knows. Certainly Obama would like for them to be and has stated that as a primary goal. However, should he, upon working as President, decide that a quick and total withdrawal is unwise and that a longer occupation is necessary, why is this a moral/leadership flaw on his part? I believe Obama earnestly wants to get the troops out as soon as feasibly possible. But if, upon deeper reflection and understanding, he decides that a longer occupation is necessary, then I'd rather he change his position than stubbornly hold on to his initial plan.

At the end of the day, it's not so much about results for me; rather, it's about process. If the process is right, then I think that tends to deliver results I agree with. I simply trust the Obama process (or what I perceive to be the Obama process) more. I agree with the premises and the values the Obama process employs. Premises such as: science is good, cool and dispassionate analysis of problems is good, leaving open the possibility of dialogue with foreign adversaries is good, less governmental interference in civil liberties is good, understanding that there is nowhere near enough oil sitting beneath America to fuel our petro-energy appetite is good, having our agenda dictated by smart and educated people (as opposed to plumbers) is good, avoiding a politics that demonizes those who disagree with us is good, etc. McCain (personally, if not his campaign) shares some of these traits to be sure, but Obama strikes me as having more of them.

So it's hard to predict what the next 4-8 years will bring. But I am optimistic about the manner in which the Obama Administration (should Obama win today) will engage and deal with what those years will have in store.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2008 01:02 PM by Barrett.)
11-04-2008 12:59 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Predictions
Barrett Wrote:As for whether the troops will be out of Iraq within a couple of years, who knows. Certainly Obama would like for them to be and has stated that as a primary goal. However, should he, upon working as President, decide that a quick and total withdrawal is unwise and that a longer occupation is necessary, why is this a moral/leadership flaw on his part? I believe Obama earnestly wants to get the troops out as soon as feasibly possible. But if, upon deeper reflection and understanding, he decides that a longer occupation is necessary, then I'd rather he change his position than stubbornly hold on to his initial plan.

Barrett... your response is EXACTLY what McCain has said all along about Obama's 16 month plan. Everyone wants them out as quickly as possible, but it is unwise to manage a war by a timetable. IMO, Obama stubbornly clung to his timetable, until fairly recently. The only difference is... and I'm using YOUR description of Obama's primary goal... McCain's primary goal is not to simply get the troops home... it is to make sure that their efforts and losses are not wasted... regardless of whether one thinks they were necessary... they are what they are... make them count.

Barrett Wrote:the end of the day, it's not so much about results for me; rather, it's about process. If the process is right, then I think that tends to deliver results I agree with. I simply trust the Obama process (or what I perceive to be the Obama process) more. I agree with the premises and the values the Obama process employs. Premises such as: science is good, cool and dispassionate analysis of problems is good, leaving open the possibility of dialogue with foreign adversaries is good, less governmental interference in civil liberties is good, understanding that there is nowhere near enough oil sitting beneath America to fuel our petro-energy appetite is good, having our agenda dictated by smart and educated people (as opposed to plumbers) is good, avoiding a politics that demonizes those who disagree with us is good, etc. McCain (personally, if not his campaign) shares some of these traits to be sure, but Obama strikes me as having more of them.

So it's hard to predict what the next 4-8 years will bring. But I am optimistic about the manner in which the Obama Administration (should Obama win today) will engage and deal with what those years will have in store.

as to the rest of this... other than degrees, I generally agree.

I don't think your comment about the dictation of an agenda is fair or proper... as I know some plumbers I trust much more than some extremely smart people with zero common sense. If you watch "The Big Bang Theory"... Sheldon is brilliant, but I wouldn't want him running a business... or a country.... much less negotiating a treaty. As to dispassionate analysis... the ONE thing I HAVEN'T seen from Obama is a dispassionate anything.

Personally, I'm more worried about the crazy effers in this country. If Obama loses, there will be some crying racism. If he wins, there will be some out to "get" him. I don't think that represents but a very small portion of either party... but ALL members of that party will be unfairly painted with the same brush.
11-04-2008 01:20 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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RE: Predictions
It's all about the Supreme Court. McCain may be saying what he thinks the far right wants to hear but he's clearly said he supports overturning Roe v. Wade and letting it reside in the states on an individual basis. Palin won't even go that far - she just wants it stricken down, period.

Currently, the court has 7 of 9 justices who were appointed by Republican presidents (although a couple of them like Stevens and Souter are among the more liberal justices on the court. Still, Stevens is 88 and he's ready to finally retire. Ginsberg is 75 and may retire. Souter is a young 69 but he has stated he doesn't like serving on the court and may step down. That's 3 of the 4 liberal judges - if all retire during a McCain administration, the court will be the most conservative it's been in a long, long time. Maybe ever.

At least when you have a Congress which leans too far one direction, you can make adjustments every two years in the election process. A conservative Supreme Court would likely lean that way for decades with Roberts just 53, Alito and Thomas 58 and 60, respectively.

As long as Scalia doesn't retire if Obama is president, the Supreme Court would be pretty fair and balanced. There would be some conservative justices and some liberal ones. There is zero chance of that occurring under McCain unless the liberal judges hang on.

Hambone10 Wrote:
Caelligh Wrote:I don't expect the next 4-8 years to be rosy regardless of who wins the election. I just think that McCain is more likely to make what I consider to be bad decisions. For example, under a McCain administration, I could foresee an overturned Roe v. Wade, less separation of church and state, less funding for scientific research, less support for environmental/energy reforms, and weakened relationships with our foreign allies.

See, I just don't get this.

Does McCain have some great track record of voting against reasonable protections for abortion rights? We've had PLENTY of Republicans run and get elected on FAR more religious agendas than his, and its still the law of the land... yet for some reason... This (by all measures) moderate Republican is going to turn the tide??
11-04-2008 01:20 PM
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Post: #9
RE: Predictions
It bothers me that someone like Obama with an Ivy League education can be so ignorant. it seems like the 20th Century never happened with him and everything started in 2001 when the evil George W. Bush made everything wrong. Obaba does not care that strength will be needed to resist the foreign threats that will be testing the United States. The Berlin Wall did not fall because the world came together, but it took standing up to the Soviet Union.

Gravy Owl Wrote:
OptimisticOwl Wrote:Everything bad will still be GWB's fault, any good thing thing will be claimed by the Obama camp.
I agree with this prediction. It'll be just like the Republicans in 2001.

Other than that, I don't know. He could end up being great, he could end up being a disaster. He could possibly be as bad as a right-left mirror image of W.
11-04-2008 01:38 PM
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At Ease Online
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Post: #10
RE: Predictions
An Obama win, and we can expect...

Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
The dead rising from the grave!
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
11-04-2008 02:17 PM
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Caelligh Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Predictions
I don't like how McCain has been trending. For example: increased (what I call) pandering to the religious right and increased support for drilling. I don't want someone who is aligned with the religious right choosing Supreme Court justices. I don't want someone who looks at environmental and energy issues solely from the perspective of how much voters have to pay for gas.

As for foreign relations, Obama offers a fresh start, and he seems more likely to consider alternative solutions and the advice of his staff. McCain seems to be too inflexible and stubborn. I'm not saying that I agree with Obama's specific proposals regarding foreign relations and the military--just that I think his approach to diplomacy is more likely to open doors than close them.
11-04-2008 02:43 PM
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S.A. Owl Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Predictions
I'll take a stab. I'll leave out most of the "mays" and "mights." It's understood.
OptimisticOwl Wrote:In six months, we will see the new tax policies start to take shape. The tax cuts will be shallow, the tax hikes deep. Half the country will see higher taxes in one form or another.
Both cuts and hikes will be shallow (or nonexistent) in the short term, because he'll back off in the name of the economy. [Disclaimer: I am not voting for him because I think he'll back off on his tax plans.]
Quote:Biden has corectly predicted that Obama will be tested - I think it will be Russia first, but Iran and North Korea may take a turn as well, and the Islamic terrorists may also make an attack, just to see how BO will react. he will refer the matter to the UN, I expect.
Yeah, he probably would refer it to the UN (if it happened), but he won't wait when they dither. I think he's more hawkish than many expect. Russia and Iran will be hamstrung by the low price of oil. No bomb for Iran any time soon. (If there is something actionable, Israel will be proactive.) The Arab world will become more aligned with us (not entirely) against our common enemy the Iranians. All will not be rosy, but we will have more influence world-wide.
Quote:Two years, the recession will still be deep, extended by BO's corporate tax policies.
Economy is slowly recovering by then, largely unaffected good or bad by the subdued tax changes. But the consumer economy will never be what it was because people now understand credit. At the end of 2010, Obama lets the Bush tax cuts expire (except those affecting middle class), still with minor effect as the economy continues to slowly recover. Health care changes will be incremental.
Quote:Osama bin Laden will still be alive and well and living in safety.
OBL will die of illness. Al Qaeda continues its decline. US troops will be mostly out of Iraq by late 2010, but we'll still be knee-deep in the Pakistan/Afghan border area. I can't predict when we'll be out of there. No more bombs for North Korea. None at all for Iran.
Quote:(Four years) Osama bin Laden will alive and well and honored, living in Iran.
Iran will refuse to harbor their Sunni enemy (who'll be dead, anyway).

Four years from now, economy will be OK, not glittering. Health care, Social Security, and Medicare still largely unresolved. No more huge terrorist attacks on US soil after 2001. Afghan war still on. Better global relations, but still instability from the likes of Chavez and Iran and their surrogates. Africa still a mess. Progress on de-carbonation of energy is being made, but not dramatically. Youth and far left not as engaged. Obama wins a second term by a squeaker (over Huckabee???).

Uh...nobody's saving these, are they? 03-wink
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2008 11:16 AM by S.A. Owl.)
11-04-2008 03:07 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Predictions
I think it all depends on which Obama we get (assuming it's Obama, which seems extremely likely).

We could get a post-partisan consensus-builder. That's how he's tried to position himself throughout the campaign, and it appears that enough people have bought off on that to elect him. I haven't, and I really don't understand how those who have got to that point, but that's more their business than mine. If he actually proves to be this, I'll probably support him in 2012, unless the republicans (or some other party) nominate an incredibly attractive candidate.

We could get some left-of-left extreme socialist, perhaps even Marxist/communist. His voting record, both in Springfield and in Washington, puts that in play as an option. If he actually proves to be this, I will be out of the country as quickly as I can.

We could--and most likely will--get something between those two extremes.

My best guess is that we'll get someone who will continue to position himself as a post-partisan consensus-builder, but whose idea of consensus-building is, "Let's all meet on the far left end of the political spectrum." I think that approach will prove disastrous, and most Americans will in the end not go for it. I think there will be many who end up asking themselves, "Why did I vote for this guy, anyway?" I'd probably react to this case by leaving.

That's a guess, and there's a pretty wide spectrum where we might end up, and that guess is only one point on that spectrum. I do think the range of possible outcomes is a lot higher with Obama than it has ever been with anyone we put into the white house, and that is not something that gives me a good feeling. All I can do at this point is determine how I should most appropriately react to the various possibilities, and be prepared to act in that manner when the time comes.

I just don't know, and this is not something that I like not knowing about.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2008 05:30 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
11-04-2008 05:29 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Predictions
Caelligh Wrote:I don't like how McCain has been trending. For example: increased (what I call) pandering to the religious right and increased support for drilling. I don't want someone who is aligned with the religious right choosing Supreme Court justices. I don't want someone who looks at environmental and energy issues solely from the perspective of how much voters have to pay for gas.
I think the gas comment is a huge over-statement... but as no politician from either party in my memorable lifetime has had an energy policy... and Obama hasn't had a word to say about energy until he ran for president... and MOST of his policy also relates to the cost of energy for families... i.e. the price of gas... I'll see it as a draw...

As to the religious right... what would you have had him do? Run a great and honorable campaign true to his history... ignoring the far right... and being 30 points behind in the polls? Sorry, but their vote counts as much as anyones... and they are low hanging fruit for the republican party. At least McCain called them out as agents of hate before seeking reconciliation. Obama ignored the sins of his pastor for 20 years, and only called him out when it was going to cost him votes.

Quote:As for foreign relations, Obama offers a fresh start, and he seems more likely to consider alternative solutions and the advice of his staff. McCain seems to be too inflexible and stubborn. I'm not saying that I agree with Obama's specific proposals regarding foreign relations and the military--just that I think his approach to diplomacy is more likely to open doors than close them.
You obviously don't know John McCain at all... and that's fine. but your description of him comes straight out of the Obama talking points. Stubborn and inflexible don't really describe ANY military commander... and no prisoner of War. Diplomacy hasn't changed... certainly not in the middle east for thousands of years. Chavez, Kim Jong Il etc are all using tactics straight out of WWII... and Rome... a "new approach" sounds great... but our diplomatic problem is that we have failed to learn from history, and we have no concept of how our actions are perceived by the rest of the world. We judge everyone by OUR standards... and ignore THEIR motivations. McCain knows this better than anyone... while Obama knows it least... His entire experience is shaped by an American perspective of Vietnam... while McCain's is shaped by a foreign perspective.

McCain and his wife have personally done more for the children of the world than any other politician I know of.
11-04-2008 06:53 PM
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Middle Ages Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Predictions
At Ease Wrote:Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

Since no one else responded, let me say- nice reference 04-rock
11-04-2008 07:23 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Predictions
Gravy Owl Wrote:He could possibly be as bad as a right-left mirror image of W.

This is my most likely case. Swing from one extreme to another, without stopping in the middle. I wouldn't call it precisely right-left because W is more neocon than far right, but I think Obama will clearly be wide left.

If Obama wins, I believe it will be the greatest con job in history, becuase he will be put into office by the votes of people who are expecting him to be a centrist. This may be as good as it ever gets for him. To paraphrase Sarah Palin, being president is sort of like being a community organizer, except you have responsibilities.

These are clearly my personal expectations, not fact. Only time will tell what really will happen. I plan to remain extremely vigilant, and prepared to respond appropriately.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2008 07:40 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
11-04-2008 07:37 PM
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Post: #17
RE: Predictions
The government will muddle around for a little bit, talking a big game but not really accomplishing much (of course, most of what they do will be negative). Obama won't meet the expectations of either side (unfortunately, i think Pelosi will continue to live down to the right's). In two years Republicans will start regraining ground in Congress, hopefully enough to get us back to gridlock. The Republic will endure & I won't really notice much of a difference.

It would be pretty much the same story in McCain somehow pulls it out, except we would get to the gridlock now instead of later. I still wouldn't notice much of a difference.
11-04-2008 09:19 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Predictions
Well keep up with those predictions because the race is likely to be called even before the west coast states close. OH, PA go Obama and FL should follow shortly. NC and VA are too close to call (IN too), but Obama could get to 270 if he wins NC, VA, IA, CO, NM and NV.
11-04-2008 09:30 PM
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The Parliament Awards
Post: #19
RE: Predictions
DOOM!! WE ARE ALL DOOMED!! Obama has just won Ohio and no republican has ever one the White House without Ohio. RUN!! HIDE!! Game over man! GAME OVER!! Oh woe is me. The economy will surely collapse. Terrorists will surely strike in three days time seeing as how we have a weak president now. Unwed teenage mothers will rise up and spoil good family values. Why, why must it all end like this?


Geez people. Reading some of these post you would think that the end IS near. Look, I support Obama, even if I can't vote, but if McCain were to be elected, I don't think it is the end of days. Do I think he would be more of the same? Yes I do. When Dubya was elected I thought that was bad, and IMHO, it has been pretty bad. But I never expected all doom and gloom to the point of predicting some of the things you are all talking about. No matter who wins the presidency, I think we can all agree that they turn out to be a good leader and do what is best for the country, regardless of party affiliation. I never felt that about Dubya. If McCain happens to win and he turns out to be a good to great president, then great we all win.
11-04-2008 09:43 PM
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Middle Ages Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Predictions
Chef Owl Wrote:When Dubya was elected I thought that was bad, and IMHO, it has been pretty bad.

Yes- exactly ZERO terrorist attacks since 9/11/2001. That is bad.
11-04-2008 10:07 PM
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