Many of the coaches think so. Some seem to think that 3 bids should be in order. Tough to say but here is an article about it in the SL Tribune.

http://www.sltrib.com/sports/ci_3530775

The sad thing is the media is still in love with the Valley so in all of these bracket projections the WAC is still getting the shaft. I can't understand how after the Bracket Buster MVC still gets 5 teams and WAC only gets 1.

Good to see a paper in the middle of mwc country recognizing the WAC. Hey, maybe USU is finially getting the respect they deserve in their home state.

Watching Lunardi on Monday on ESPN News he is going back and forth on MVC. He talked about this week they have 5 in but next week they could only have 3 in the field. He feels Wichita St, Northern Iowa and Creighton are the only teams that are firm in. While Southern ILlinois and missouri St are true bubble teams.

After the lose S. Illinois had tonight they might drop out of the next projections but most that I see still have USU and Nevada in. For WAC to get three something weird iwll have to happen.

Southern Illinois is in meltdown mode. After last night's loss to #208 Evansville, their rpi dropped to 44. They've lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 7. It's unlikely that even a win over Northern Iowa in their final regular season finale will save them now.

wolf pack 1 Wrote:For WAC to get three something weird iwll have to happen.

I still think it's possible. But, Nevada would have to lose in the tourny and let USU and Tech go at it in the finals...if Tech wins a very close and exciting game (hopefully nationally televised), Tech is in, Nevada is in, and USU could get in (the reason they would need to lose is because they are in better position to get an at-large).

Hopefully the seeding will work-out so that is possible.

johnnylightnin Wrote:

wolf pack 1 Wrote:For WAC to get three something weird iwll have to happen.

I still think it's possible. But, Nevada would have to lose in the tourny and let USU and Tech go at it in the finals...if Tech wins a very close and exciting game (hopefully nationally televised), Tech is in, Nevada is in, and USU could get in (the reason they would need to lose is because they are in better position to get an at-large).

Hopefully the seeding will work-out so that is possible.

That should work. If Utah St wins out, and Nevada's only loss is at Logan, then they both should have bomb-proof rpis (barring a "bad loss" in the WAC tourney). In that case, USU would be the #1 seed and NV would be #2. LT would need to gain the #3 to avoid meeting USU before the final, and they may need to win out to do it. However, beating USU in the semis and NV in the final may still work at that point. And of course, anyone else winning the tourney could have the same result (can't count Hawai'i out, nor would NMSU be a huge upset).

Of course, I'm hoping Nevada squashes Utah St like a bug on Sat. and makes this all moot.

clpack Wrote:And of course, anyone else winning the tourney could have the same result (can't count Hawai'i out, nor would NMSU be a huge upset).

:shhh: :shhh: :shhh: :shhh: :shhh:

clpack Wrote:Southern Illinois is in meltdown mode. After last night's loss to #208 Evansville, their rpi dropped to 44. They've lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 7. It's unlikely that even a win over Northern Iowa in their final regular season finale will save them now.

I disagree. This same subject came up on the USU board; here's repost of what I wrote there:

Quote:Sorry, but I'm skeptical. (Indeed, if you'll forgive me for saying so, I think there's a bias against "mid-major" schools showing here. In my mind, if a Big 12 team had the same profile as SIU, they would be considered a mortal lock and we wouldn't even be having this conversation.)

I looked at this a little more closely, and let's compare SIU and Cal, for instance. Cal is a BCS-conference school that most pundits are calling a lock at this point. See below.

In my mind, the only possible reasons to prefer Cal over SIU is their record over the past ten games (7-3 vs. 5-5) and Cal's huge road win over UCLA. Otherwise, SIU has more wins, a much better RPI, more RPI top-50 wins, more road wins, and more quality road wins. (Note that Bradley could easily move into the top 50 of the RPI, and USC could easily drop out of the top 100 of the RPI when considering these numbers.)

Moreover, when you look at the bad losses, Cal has just as many as SIU does. And I would argue that Cal's bad losses are even worse since they have two recent bad losses at home. SIU's losses to Monmouth and Alaska-Anchorage were very early in the season (and remember that SIU is a very young team this year), and they were away from home.

Personally, I'm going to be very upset if an iffy BCS-conference school gets in over SIU, because in my mind, they deserve a bid a lot more than Cal or many other "bubble" schools.

SIU:
W-L: 18-7
RPI: #44
vs. top 50: 4-3
vs. top 100: 7-6
Road/neutral: 8-7
Last 10 games: 5-5
Best wins: Wichita State (#24), Missouri State (#26), Creighton (#31), @Creighton (#31), Bradley (#51), @Murray State (#77), Kent State (#78 )
Bad losses: Indiana State (#143), Monmouth-N (#175), @Evansville (#208 ), @Alaska-Anchorage (non-D1)

Cal:
W-L: 16-7
RPI: #64
vs. top 50: 3-2
vs. top 100: 7-4
Road/neutral: 5-5
Last 10 games: 7-3
Best wins: @UCLA (#13), Arizona (#17), Washington (#34), SDSU (#63), Akron (#72), Stanford (#87), @USC (#97)
Bad losses: Arizona State (#165), Oregon State (#179), @Eastern Michigan (#299)

[/quote]

StanfordAggie Wrote:let's compare SIU and Cal, for instance. Cal is a BCS-conference school that most pundits are calling a lock at this point.

I'd say Cal is in the "in, but has work to do" category, and SIU is seriously on the bubble (probably on the wrong side right now). The thing that's killing SIU the most is recent record (lost 5 of their last 7). Cal, on the other hand, is hot (won 6 of their last 7).

I agree that Cal's losses are just as bad as SIU's, with exception of AK-Anchorage. However, Cal's best wins (13, 17, 34) are a little better than SIU's (24, 26, 31). Plus, Cal started the season without Leon Powe, which puts an asterisk by the EMU loss.

The only thing making Cal a "lock" is being tied for 1st place in the Pac10. Compare them to Washington in 2004, who finished hot and in 2nd place, and got in despite an rpi of 60. Cal will need to keep winning to maintain a high conference standing (and with games remaining against UW and UCLA, that isn't going to be easy)...if they do, they'll get their rpi up to a respectable level and quiet the critics...if they don't, they're probably out.

Now, compare SIU to Miami-OH and Wichita St in 2005. Miami finished 18-10, with an rpi of 43, while WSU finished 20-9, with an rpi of 45. Both were left out...why?...probably because Miami lost 5 of their last 9, and WSU lost 6 of their last 8. Right now, those are both very comparable to SIU this year.

A win over No Iowa, or a strong performance in the MVC, may save SIU, but I'd be willing to bet they're out.

Anyway, I always enjoy your analyses, and think your takes are almost always right on. BTW, did you see this article from yesterday? I'm not much of a Kandy Atz fan, but this is a pretty good one.
link: Katz on selection topics

clpack Wrote:

StanfordAggie Wrote:let's compare SIU and Cal, for instance. Cal is a BCS-conference school that most pundits are calling a lock at this point.

I'd say Cal is in the "in, but has work to do" category, and SIU is seriously on the bubble (probably on the wrong side right now). The thing that's killing SIU the most is recent record (lost 5 of their last 7). Cal, on the other hand, is hot (won 6 of their last 7).

I agree that Cal's losses are just as bad as SIU's, with exception of AK-Anchorage. However, Cal's best wins (13, 17, 34) are a little better than SIU's (24, 26, 31). Plus, Cal started the season without Leon Powe, which puts an asterisk by the EMU loss.

The only thing making Cal a "lock" is being tied for 1st place in the Pac10. Compare them to Washington in 2004, who finished hot and in 2nd place, and got in despite an rpi of 60. Cal will need to keep winning to maintain a high conference standing (and with games remaining against UW and UCLA, that isn't going to be easy)...if they do, they'll get their rpi up to a respectable level and quiet the critics...if they don't, they're probably out.

Now, compare SIU to Miami-OH and Wichita St in 2005. Miami finished 18-10, with an rpi of 43, while WSU finished 20-9, with an rpi of 45. Both were left out...why?...probably because Miami lost 5 of their last 9, and WSU lost 6 of their last 8. Right now, those are both very comparable to SIU this year.

A win over No Iowa, or a strong performance in the MVC, may save SIU, but I'd be willing to bet they're out.

Anyway, I always enjoy your analyses, and think your takes are almost always right on. BTW, did you see this article from yesterday? I'm not much of a Kandy Atz fan, but this is a pretty good one.
link: Katz on selection topics

These are all excellent points that I hadn't fully considered. The only thing that I can say in response is that the bubble is extremely weak this year. You're right; if they had the same credentials last year, they would not be in the greatest shape. But this year I think they're still okay... (Last week, Joe Lunardi listed USU as his "last team in" and Stewart Mandel listed us as his "last team out." So comparing SIU to USU should give a good indication of whether they're in or out. And as much as I hate to say it, I think SIU still looks a lot better than we do right now.)

Incidentally, there's a poster on the USU board who's trying to put together a mock selection committee to try to predict what the real selection committee will do. If you or any other Nevada fans are into this sort of thing, I'm sure he'd let you participate as well. It's obviously that you have a very good understanding of the process.

StanfordAggie Wrote:Incidentally, there's a poster on the USU board who's trying to put together a mock selection committee to try to predict what the real selection committee will do. If you or any other Nevada fans are into this sort of thing, I'm sure he'd let you participate as well. It's obviously that you have a very good understanding of the process.

I browse the USU board frequently, but don't read every post. Where is this discussion? I may be interested in throwing in two cents now and then.

I'm certainly as capable of as the next guy.