This is what I wrote for a third party source before the season, I haven't read through it a second time, but it is probably off by a mile.
Over the past few years, few people would argue that baseball has taken a hit. Steroids has taken over America’s pastime and turned it into an ongoing investigation. The headlines this offseason were filled with accusations and testimonies about steroids, even President Bush felt that it was important enough to mention in the State of the Union Address. However, there were other important events that occurred this offseason, headed by the trade of Alex Rodriquez to the Yankees. This was a response to counter the signings of Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke by the Red Sox. So what does all this mean? Here are my 2004 MLB Predictions.
AL East
1. New York Yankees: George Steinbrenner pulled the trade of the century, sending Alfonso Soriano to the Rangers for Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez will move over to third base, forming along with Derek Jeter the best left side of the infield in baseball. Add Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Jorge Posada, and Hideki Matsui to the lineup, and the Yankees have as much firepower on their team as baseball has ever seen. The pitching lineup has some new faces in Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez, but the key may be Jose Contreras, the highly paid pitcher who had a lackluster performance in his first season. Along with closer Mariano Rivera, the Yankees have the tools to again reach the World Series.
2. Boston Red Sox: A weakness of the Red Sox last season was their bullpen, and they definitely addressed that need by the signing of premier closer Keith Foulke. Foulke, along with Scott Williamson, make the once weak bullpen now exceptionally strong. The addition of Curt Schilling gives the Red Sox three aces, along with Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe. The question mark with this team lies with the hitting. Players like Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, and Kevin Millar had career seasons last year, and it is doubtful they will match that performance again this year. But with Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox have enough power to again compete for the playoffs.
3. Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto is a wild card in the very formidable AL East. They have a lot of young players and question marks, and like the Red Sox, questions whether players with career years last year can repeat. Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells had superb seasons last year, and there is no reason they can’t do so again. Another key is the Blue Jays infield. Orlando Cabrera, Chris Woodward, and Eric Hinske need to produce for this Blue Jays team to have a shot. But what puts the Jays above the Orioles is their pitching. Halladay, Batista, and Lilly are all very capable pitchers. However, because of the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays will probably not make the playoffs this year.
4. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles had money to spend this offseason, and they certainly spent it well, headed by the pickup of former AL MVP Miguel Tejada. Tejada, one of the top shortstops in baseball, is a threat to hit 40 HR and bring in 100 RBI every season. Along with Javy Lopez, who had one of the great offensive seasons last year for a catcher, and 500 HR hitter Rafael Palmeiro, the Orioles certainly added some pop in the offseason. Luis Matos is another young player to watch for, he showed flashes of brilliance last year. However, their pitching needs improvement to say the least. If the Orioles are to go anywhere this season, they will need big seasons from Kurt Ainsworth and Rodrigo Lopez.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: The Devil Rays have a solid all around lineup. Their outfield, with Rocco Baldelli, Jose Cruz Jr., and Carl Crawford has the potential to be very dangerous. They have solid depth at first base with Tino Martinez and Robert Fick, as well as at third with Damian Rolls and Geoff Blum. They don’t really have a true second baseman, so either Julio Lugo or Rey Sanchez will have to adjust. Their pitching, however, is far from solid. After Victor Zambrono, they will really struggle. Their bullpen will be decent with Danys Baez, Lance Carter, and Jorge Sosa. They are still far from the playoffs though, especially in the best division in baseball.
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins: With the emergence of the Tigers and the Royals, many will doubt the Twins ability to win the division again. But with a very quick and a very good lineup defensively, the Twins will once again be atop the AL Central. Not many balls will get up the middle with Luis Rivas at second and Cristian Guzman at shortstop. Torri Hunter, Shannon Stewart, and Jacque Jones are not big names, but get the job done as outfielders. This team will not hit many home runs, but will win games because of their ability to find the gaps and run the bases. Their pitching, despite some doubters, is also solid as well with Johan Santana, Brad Radke, and Kyle Lohse. Assuming Joe Nathan can adequately take over as closer, expect the Twins to once again win the division.
2. Kansas City Royals: The Royals will not sneak up on anybody this year. With three premier players in Carlos Beltran, Juan Gonzalez, and Mike Sweeney, the fans in Kansas City expect great things from this team. Beltran is poised for a MVP season, for he can hit, run, and field just as well as anybody. Their left side of the infield may be obscure to those outside of Kansas City, be Angel Berroa and Joe Randa can both do good work offensively. The Royals pitching though, while not bad, is not that enticing. Darrell May and Brain Anderson are solid, but are still far behind the Twins. Those two pitchers are the key, they will have to step up to give the Royals a shot at the postseason.
3. Detroit Tigers: The Tigers are the most improved team and baseball, and will not see themselves challenging for the most losses in a season anytime soon. Last year’s postseason hero for the Marlins, Ivan Rodriguez was the biggest signing for the Tigers. Not only does he bring a big bat into their lineup, his reputation for improving young pitchers is exactly what the Tigers need. The acquisitions of Fernando Viña, Rondell White, and Carlos Guillen fill big holes for the Tigers. Their pitching is very solid, and with the addition of Jason Johnson, Mike Maroth and Jeremy Bonderman can expect more wins as the move down the rotation. The late signing of Ugueth Urbina brings a quality closer to Detroit as well. The Tigers will contend for a playoff spot this year.
4. Chicago White Sox: The White Sox have just enough to keep them out of the cellar of this division. The outfield combination of Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordoñez is superb. Also expect a bounce back season from Paul Konerko after a horrendous campaign last year. Jose Valentin had a good year at shortstop last year, and they need him to do it again. Third baseman Joe Crede has improved over the last few seasons as well, look for that to continue. Their pitching is solid up front with 20 game winner Esteban Loaiza and Mark Buehrle, but they will need more from the end of their rotation. After losing Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett, don’t expect this team in the playoffs.
5. Cleveland Indians: This team is very similar to Tampa Bay, they have decent talent across the board but nobody that is great. Their best player is probably Milton Bradley, who if he adds power can be very dangerous as a center fielder. They have a lot of young talent such Jody Gerut, Victor Martinez, and Ben Broussard that will play this year and will need to produce. Their pitching is what their downfall will be. CC Sabathia, their ace, is more like a number two or three pitcher, and their bullpen and starting rotation is very weak in general. The goal for this team should be to not finish in the cellar.
AL West
1. Anahiem Angels: The talent on this team is incredible and second only to the Yankees. The addition of Vladimir Guerrero was one of the best of the offseason, adding him to an explosive outfield of Garrett Anderson and Jose Guillen. Troy Glaus is having a great spring training and is poised to return to 2001 form. The rest of the infield is filled with the role players you need to win it all such as David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, and Darren Erstad. Their pitching is tremendous because of the addition of Bartolo Colon, who eats up innings and is capable of going the distance every game. With Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar, Ramon Ortiz, and John Lackey also in the rotation, along with Troy Percival in the bullpen, missing the playoffs would be a big disappointment.
2. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners are supposed to be down this year, but may surprise some people. This team will stop and go with their pitching staff. Freddy Garcia has to reach his potential this year for this team, and may do that because of the emergence of Joel Piñeiro. Another big question mark is 41 year old Jamie Moyer, who one 20 games last year. If he can give them 15+ wins this year, this will be a very good pitching staff. As far as hitting goes, the additions of Raul Ibañez and Rich Aurillia fill big holes, and they still have the ever dangerous Ichiro Suzuki. Expect big things from second baseman Bret Boone as well, and expect good things from the Mariners this season.
3. Oakland Athletics: This team is one of the most unbalanced teams in baseball. They have very questionable hitting, but they also have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball. The big three of Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder are all perennial Cy Young candidates. The addition of Mark Redman and the expected emergence of Rich Harden will make this staff capable of keeping Oakland in every game. But runs will be at a premium this year for Oakland. Eric Chavez is known for having very slow starts, and after him the Athletics don’t have much. Pitching can take you far, but eventually you will need to score, and that will prove to be a problem this year for Oakland.
4. Texas Rangers: Alex Rodriguez is gone, so now who do the Rangers have? Soriano is the best second baseman in baseball, and can essentially do everything offensively imaginable. The Rangers also have great young talent at the corners with Mark Teixeira and Hank Blalock. The outfield of the Rangers is less than spectacular, with Brian Jordan being the only real threat. Their pitching is the same as usual as well, pretty awful. Their two best pitchers are 39 year old Kenny Rogers and overpaid Chan Ho Park. This season should be used by the Rangers to develop their young talent, because they are far from the playoffs.
NL East
1. Florida Marlins: The Marlins have lost some players from last year’s World Series team, but still have enough to win the division this year. Miguel Cabrera is ready for a breakout year after shining in last year’s postseason. Juan Pierre is the best base runner in baseball, and he and Luis Castillo provide a great one-two combo in the lineup. Replacing Ivan Rodriquez is a concern, but Ramon Castro will have a great pitching staff to work with. Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis, and Carl Pavano all return, as does the injured AJ Burnett. They also add Armando Benitez as closer, who has been up and down the last few seasons to say the least. The Marlins are in a very deep division, but have the balance to win it.
2. Atlanta Braves: The Braves have lost a lot over the past few years, but still have enough to compete for a division title. Their outfield is tremendous with Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, and the addition of JD Drew. Drew must stay healthy for the Braves to have a chance. They are still very solid up the middle with Marcus Giles and Rafael Furcal. The corners are the question mark, with rookie Adam LaRoche likely starting at first and Mark DeRosa starting at third. Johnny Estrada will have a chance to show his skills at catcher. Their pitching doesn’t blow you away, but is still solid with Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, and Horacio Ramirez. With John Smoltz at closer, this team won’t be going away any time soon.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies are solid across the board, but their season relies on a lot of inconsistent players. Pat Burrell had an awful season last year, the Phillies absolutely need him to play well. The Phillies also need good seasons from Jimmy Rollins and Mike Lieberthal. You know you are going to get good seasons from Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu, but their hitting lineup is very inconsistent. Their starters all return, expect Brett Myers to really improve. Their bullpen was a major concern last year, and they have certainly solved that problem with the additions of Billy Wagner and Tim Worrell. This team has the talent to go to the World Series, but also has the capabilities of doing very poorly.
4. New York Mets: The Mets have a lot of talent, especially in the infield. Their infield of Jason Phillips, Jose Reyes, Kazuo Matsui, and Ty Wigginton is one of the best young infields in baseball. With the addition of Mike Cameron, their outfield is solid as well with Cliff Floyd and Karim Garcia. Look for Mike Piazza to have one of his best seasons this year after struggling with injuries the past couple of seasons. Their pitching is questionable. Al Leiter, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel are past their prime but still can get the Mets some wins. This division is very deep, with the Marlins, Mets, Braves, and Phillies all with realistic shots at winning it.
5. Montreal Expos: The Expos have a decent team that could surprise some this year, but are clearly a step behind the rest of the teams in their division. Nick Johnson, Carl Everett, and Tony Batista are all nice offensive additions, but are not very known for their defense. Jose Vidro remains one of the top second baseman in baseball, and Orlando Cabrera is a nice compliment at shortstop. Their pitching is filled with no names, but they have talent. Livan Hernandez is capable of being a number one, and Tomo Okha, Claudio Vargas, and Zach Day are underrated. This team will struggle after losing Vladimir Guerrero, but can still win 70 games.
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have gotten even better after last year’s playoff run. They added a quality first baseman in Derrek Lee and a quality catcher in Michael Barrett. They still have home run threat Sammy Sosa, and he forms a formidable outfield along with Moises Alou and Corey Patterson. Their pitching is what makes this team great though. One of the best rotations in the NL added Greg Maddux, adding him to Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, and Matt Clement. Prior is set to establish himself as the best pitcher in all of baseball and to make a run at the Cy Young. The Cubs toughest rival this season may be their division rival Houston.
2. Houston Astros: The Astros have also improved a lot from last season, particularly in pitching. Lance Berkman had a down year last season, expect him to bounce back this season. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio will probably decline a bit, but will still produce enough to make this team competitive. Expect big offensive years from Jeff Kent, Richard Hidalgo, and Morgan Ensberg. While Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus are not big hitters, they are great defensive players. Their pitching lineup is among the best in the league, with Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Roger Clemens, and Andy Pettitte, and Octavio Dotel is ready to become a premier closer. This team may not win the division, but the playoff experience of Clemens and Pettitte will pay off in the playoffs.
3. St. Louis Cardinals: Many people have forgotten about the Cardinals in this tough division, but they have a chance if they are underestimated. They can put runs on the board in a hurry with Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, two premier hitters. Albert Pujojs is the best all around player in baseball, and is still getting better. Edgar Renteria deserves to be mentioned among the likes of Rodriguez, Garciaparra, and Tejada. The addition of Reggie Sanders replaces the loss of JD Drew in right field. Their pitching hinges on the play of 38 year old Woody Williams, who faded after a great first half last season. Isringhausen is a top notch closer, but their bullpen is weak after him. The Cardinals should definitely not be written off from postseason contention.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are far behind the top three teams in this division, but have the pitching to stay out of the cellar. Kip Wells, Kris Benson, and Josh Fogg make up a very good top three, and Wells is ready to emerge as an ace. Jose Mesa brings them a quality closer to finish games. However, their hitting is less than desirable. They brought in Raul Mondesi to play right field, and he instantly becomes their best hitter. Jason Kendall hits for average as a catcher but does not have very much power. Other than those two, the Pirates really do not have much. Their pitching can win them some games, but can’t do it all.
5. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers traded their best hitter Richie Sexson to the Diamondbacks, but gained three solid infielders in Craig Counsell, Lyle Overbay, and Junior Spivey. Add them to Wes Helms, and that is an infield that can get you some hits. Their outfield is solid as well with Geoff Jenkins, Ben Grieve, and Scott Posednik. Look for Danny Kolb to break out this year as a terrific closer; he pitched very well at the end of last season. Their rotation is not terrible, but not great either. Ben Sheets and Matt Kinney return with decent potential, and they added Wayne Franklin. This is not a team that will jump up and surprise anybody this year, they are still a while away from being contenders in this division.
6. Cincinnati Reds: You know it is bad when your ace had a 5.75 ERA last year. The Reds team is in shambles, starting with their pitching staff. Cory Lidle, Aaron Harang, Paul Wilson, and Jimmy Haynes all had over 4.60 ERAs last year. If one of these guys will emerge, look for it to be Harang, who is still young and has shown potential in Oakland. Their power hitting is excellent, though some of that is attributed to their offensive friendly ballpark. Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. have to stay healthy this year for the Reds to have a chance. Austin Kearns and Sean Casey are capable of being all around good hitters, but both also need to stay healthy. If the Reds are out of contention by May, look for some of these players to be on the trading block.
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: This will be the surprise team of the season. Arizona lost Schilling, but gained Roberto Alomar and Richie Sexson. There are few weaknesses in their hitting and fielding unit. Along with Sexson and Alomar, Alex Cintron and Shea Hillenbrand form a solid all around infield. Luis Gonzalez is poised to have a great season after a couple of off seasons. Their pitching will be just as good even without Schilling because of the emergence of Brandon Webb. Lost in the shuffle of Dontrelle Willis’s rookie season, Webb had just as good of one if not better. Randy Johnson will be healthy this season, adding him to a formidable staff including Webb, Shane Reynolds, Casey Fossum, and Elmer Dessens. This is a very solid team that will take advantage of the weak NL East and win it.
2. San Francisco Giants: This team rises and falls with Barry Bonds, and this is the year Bonds will start to decline a bit. Bonds will turn 40 this season, and his hitting and fielding will suffer. Their infield is very solid defensively, with Neifi Perez, Edgardo Alfonso, JT Snow, and Ray Durham. They add a young catcher in AJ Pierzynski, who replaces the old Benito Santiago. A key for this lineup will be who replaces Jose Cruz Jr. in right field, a battle that should go down to the wire in training camp. Their pitching is solid, though Jason Schmidt and Robb Nenn are likely to miss the start of the season due to injury. As stated earlier, this team relies heavily on Bonds. If he declines, his team will suffer. Regardless, this team will compete for the division.
3. San Diego Padres: The Padres will have high expectations going into this season, perhaps maybe even a bit too high. They made two very nice additions to their outfield in Brian Giles and Jay Payton. The addition of all star catcher Ramon Hernandez fills a big hole, as does the return of Phil Nevin at first. Their bullpen will be very strong assuming Trevor Hoffman is healthy. Their rotation may be a bit overrated. David Wells is a big name but will turn 42 this season and is a big question mark. Jake Peavy had a solid year last year and must continue that should the Padres compete for a berth in the postseason.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are the wild card of this division; they are capable of winning the division or finishing in dead last. Their hitting should be much better than last year’s with the addition of Juan Encarnacion and the expected bounce back season of Shawn Green. The Dodgers are solid up the middle with Cesar Izturis and Alex Cora, but those two are not proficient hitters. Their pitching staff is still very good even without Kevin Brown, with Hideo Nomo, Odalis Perez, and Kazuhisa Ishii. It will be interesting to see how Jeff Weaver performs outside of the scrutiny of New York. The most important part of this team though is closer Eric Gagne. Gagne is the best closer in baseball, and it is almost automatic when he steps in for the ninth inning.
5. Colorado Rockies: Colorado will always have problems winning because of their inability to attract high quality pitchers to Coors field. Even when big name pitchers like Mike Hampton do come, they fail to pitch effectively. Jason Jennings is a high quality pitcher, but after that they have nobody. Their hitting will also take a hit with the loss of Jay Payton. The trio of Todd Helton, Larry Walker, and Preston Wilson are spectacular hitters, and the addition of Jeremy Burnitz gives Colorado a lot of firepower in the middle of their lineup. Shawn Chacon will make the move from starter to closer, but it won’t matter for the Rockies. The lack of pitching will be too much to overcome.
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
NL Wild Card: Houston Astros
AL MVP: Carlos Beltran
AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Mark Prior
Division Series:
Yankees over Twins
Angels over Red Sox
Cubs over Diamondbacks
Astros over Marlins
NLCS: Astros over Cubs
ALCS: Angels over Yankees
World Series: Angels over Astros
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