Looking ahead to next season makes this Tar Heel wonder if the four-year reign of dookie dominance over us will finally be over. Ever since Dean left, we've struggled to keep up with the dookies. Another coaching change since then hasn't helped the matter.

This year's draft for dook was eeriely like 1998 when we lost Antawn, Vince, Shammond, and Makhtar the same year. However, dook is bringing in some talent to replace their losses, so the comparison falls flat in some areas. They also still have their Hall of Fame coach -- whom I don't like personally but whose abilities I respect.

Thus, we are left with two programs coming off two drastically different seasons, but with a similar dilemma: who will step up?

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Let's look at the teams:

STARTERS

1) R. Felton vs. C. Duhon: Duhon has the experience edge here, which is a significant advantage. Ray is highly touted and is more of a pure point. Much of the Heels' success will depend on how Ray performs as the floor leader of this team. As for Duhon, will he be the one that shined two years ago or the one that faded last year?

2) J. Manuel vs. D. Ewing: Ewing has the advantage in just about every area here. He may be dook's best player. Jackie is a superb defender, but he needs confidence in all other areas of his game. I'm interested to see how much he has worked on his game (especially shooting) in the offseason.

3) R. McCants vs. D. Jones: These are both athletic players who can get up and down the floor. Jones obviously has an experience advantage and probably has more overall athleticism, but Rashad seems to be a better shooter. I think this will be an excellent matchup if the two end up guarding each other. McCants and Manuel may switch positions at times, but I see them faring better with the current matchups.

4) J. Williams vs. S. Randolph: I penciled Shav in here, but it could really be anyone from Shav to Shelden to Sanders. Jones may even play here some. Whatever the case, I think Jawad has the advantage against most, although he may get manhandled if he plays against Shelden.

5) S. May vs. M. Thompson: Once again, this position for dook could be filled by anyone from Thompson to Sanders to Shelden... to Horvath, even. I'll go with Thompson to start. There's no way of knowing how any of these players will match up.

BENCH

UNC: Scott will be one of the first guys off the bench and will be a key player this year. He was was called one of the best shooters of last year's class, but he struggled throughout the season. That could be have freshmen jitters and/or too much pressure piled up. Grant and Sanders will have to come in and step up in the PF/C positions for the Heels, so that May can get some much-needed rest. Will Johnson is going to need to step up and be outside threat he was in some games earlier last season. David Noel will also probably get a lot of play backing up the wing positions.

dook: The dookies have a decided advantage on the bench. Going with the starters I projected (which will likely be wrong), then they will also have Shelden Williams, JJ Reddick, Sean Dockery, Sanders, Love, Horvath, and Lee Melchionni (unless he is redshirting, which I believe I heard he might be). Reddick appears to be an offensive star for the dookies and will likely play a lot this year. Williams and Dockery should get a lot of time also. The other big men will all take turns rotating in. dook will still be able to do things the traditional way by not heaping too much pressure upon its freshmen.

COACHING

Most will jump on this quickly and say that it's the biggest advantage that dook has. I agree that it's an advantage, but am not so quick to say that it will be a game-decider. In fact, a little over a year ago Master K was outcouched by Doherty in their first matchup. Oddly enough, he also outcoached K in their last matchup (although a dook win). I think these are good signs to show that Doh can hold his own when the teams are evenly matched (and they haven't been yet).

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Overall, I see dook's experience and depth as the two main factors that still gives them a bit of an edge. However, if Coach K continues to use a short bench like he has been for the last few years, he will squander that advantage....

I can't predict what will happen in the games, but I can say one thing: it should be exciting. That's something we haven't been able to say in this rivalry for awhile now....

-JD

<small>[ June 27, 2002, 12:04 PM: Message edited by: JD Heel ]</small>

Good breakdown. I agree with most of your analyzations JD, but don't you think it will be McCants vs. Ewing and Manual vs. Jones?

With Dunleavy there, Duke would have had their way with us, but with Dunleavy gone, I like our chances against Duke next year. Just think about what we can do this year, if such a poor performing UNC team could stay close (in the ACC tourney) to a Duke team that was so good last year.

The way I look at it compared to last season, we will have a better team, and their team won't be as good. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" />

We'll have to wait and see though! It should be awesome baby! <img border="0" alt="[Cheers]" title="" src="graemlins/cheers.gif" /> <img border="0" alt="[laugh]" title="" src="graemlins/laughing.gif" /> <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" /> <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" /> <img border="0" title="" alt="[Razz]" src="tongue.gif" />

<small>[ June 27, 2002, 11:50 AM: Message edited by: hoops13 ]</small>

I just think McCants has a lot more upper-body strength than Manuel. That comes from what I've heard and what I saw in the McDonald's game (he killed some rebounds down there and got some nice shots that he powered in over taller players).

If Manuel plays Jones, I think he's just going to get overpowered. But, I think he can keep up with Ewing. I guess I was looking at the matchups more like how we would defend them. In reality, both players will be playing wing positions for us.

-JD

I hope Manual is working his @$$ off this summer to improve (on his handles and shot) because we are going to need him play very well.

I hate to say it, but Manuel and Scott were the two guys who didn't live up to my expectations last year. Okay, you can throw Morrison in there too....

That doesn't necessarily mean they were bad, but we needed a lot more out of them. Jackie really struggled with his shot (and that is an understatement). He just didn't seem to have any confidence in it.

Melvin showed flashes in a few games, but his shot was too streaky -- and he didn't have much else to back it up. He got lost in the point guard shuffle last year, and that took away from his offense. Hopefully this year he will only have to do spot duty at the point and can focus a lot more on the the two guard spot.

I am excited to see what Jawad has to show us this year. He struggled early on last year... and then he began to break out of whatever was holding him back. If he works as hard in the offseason and he promised, nothing can hold him back.

I will be interested to see how we perform in game number one (heck, even in the exhibitions). As we saw last year, that early-season play is a good forecast for the rest of the season.

-JD

I agree, we will be able to tell a lot just by watching the Blue-White game.

BTW, I will tell you right now that we are probably going to have a very rough start to this season. And if we start the season 4-5, all the critics are going to be out for Doherty's head and saying that he can't do anything with any team, and they will also be saying that we put too much pressure on the freshmen and that they busted. But we will be fine.

Next year's schedule (hasn't been officialy released yet, but many of the opponents are already known) is going to be even tougher than the one last year.

Hopefully the tough competition from the get-go will help us do well in ACC competition.

Our schedule for the 2002-2003 season includes (unofficially):

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Preseason NIT
vs. Penn. State (1st round)
vs. Columbia/Rutgers (2nd round, if we advance)

(other potential opponents in the Preseason NIT include Kansas , Florida , Stanford )

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Kentucky
Connecticut (home)
Illinois (away)
Miami
Davidson
Vermont

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Plus all of the ACC regular season games
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I look at the Preseason NIT as a good thing for our team either way we come out of it:

Win a game or two means:
Our team has gained a victory, played vs. some good teams and defeated some very good teams, and hopefully a victory or two will help boost some confidence.

Lose a game:
Our team has gained some experience playing against some very good out of conference teams and it helps us in the long run against conference opponents.

BTW, here's a link for an article about the schedule: <a href="http://sports.newsobserver.com/sports/college/story/1485550p-1516300c.html" target="_blank">http://sports.newsobserver.com/sports/college/story/1485550p-1516300c.html</a>

I think we will struggle next year until probably the midpoint of the ACC season; quite possibly all the way through the season. We will be small, young, unfamiliar with each other, and facing a tough schedule. That's why I think we are going to be doing very well if we are .500.

As for dook, I think virtually all the matchups favor them and I don't think we will do that well against them. Of course, we would always have a shot in the Dome.

What I want from Doherty & Co. is:

1. No "bad" losses (see UConn, Ohio, Hampton etc.)
2. Team Chemistry (no sulking, complaints about PT, complaints about the coaching, etc.)
3. No transfers, and no talk about transfers.
4. Enough improvement, both as a team and individually, so that by season's end we have a legitimate chance (with some luck) to win the ACC tourney.

I agree Zinfanheel especially with:
</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif"> What I want from Doherty & Co. is:

1. No "bad" losses (see UConn, Ohio, Hampton etc.)
2. Team Chemistry (no sulking, complaints about PT, complaints about the coaching, etc.)
3. No transfers, and no talk about transfers.
4. Enough improvement, both as a team and individually, so that by season's end we have a legitimate chance (with some luck) to win the ACC tourney </font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">If we finish the season at or above .500 I will be thrilled!