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interesting polling question
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wvucrazed Offline
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Post: #1
 
This is something I have thought about, and wondered about - since I do not have a home phone, only a cell-phone... and I know that many others are doing the same thing now. No point in having both a cellphone and a home phone, unless the home phone is needed for computer dial up. This could be an interesting component of the polling data that nobody is really talking about.


from http://www.electoral-vote.com:


Jimmy Breslin of Newsday had an column yesterday that, if true, makes this website irrelevant. Breslin claims that pollsters do not call the 168 million cell phones in the country. Since many younger voters do not have a land line and just a cell phone, they will be hugely underrepresented in all the telephone polls. Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter, the polls may be greatly underestimating Kerry's strength. Between missing all the people who have only a cell phone and no land line and the 5 million overseas voters, the polls maybe missing a very large section of the electorate. If anyone working for a pollster or telecom company knows ***for sure*** whether pollsters call cell phones, please let me know. But please don't send e-mail on this subject if you are just speculating.
09-17-2004 01:02 PM
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GrayBeard Offline
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wvucrazed Wrote:This is something I have thought about, and wondered about - since I do not have a home phone, only a cell-phone... and I know that many others are doing the same thing now. No point in having both a cellphone and a home phone, unless the home phone is needed for computer dial up. This could be an interesting component of the polling data that nobody is really talking about.


from http://www.electoral-vote.com:


Jimmy Breslin of Newsday had an column yesterday that, if true, makes this website irrelevant. Breslin claims that pollsters do not call the 168 million cell phones in the country. Since many younger voters do not have a land line and just a cell phone, they will be hugely underrepresented in all the telephone polls. Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter, the polls may be greatly underestimating Kerry's strength. Between missing all the people who have only a cell phone and no land line and the 5 million overseas voters, the polls maybe missing a very large section of the electorate. If anyone working for a pollster or telecom company knows ***for sure*** whether pollsters call cell phones, please let me know. But please don't send e-mail on this subject if you are just speculating.
This sounds like the liberal spin machine getting ramped up and trying to make the future not look quite so bleak for Kerry.

Oh, don't forget the tree huggers and the ahmish (sp?), who may not even have phones!
09-17-2004 01:09 PM
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wvucrazed Offline
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Post: #3
 
GrayBeard Wrote:
wvucrazed Wrote:This is something I have thought about, and wondered about - since I do not have a home phone, only a cell-phone... and I know that many others are doing the same thing now.  No point in having both a cellphone and a home phone, unless the home phone is needed for computer dial up.  This could be an interesting component of the polling data that nobody is really talking about. 


from http://www.electoral-vote.com:


Jimmy Breslin of Newsday had an column yesterday that, if true, makes this website irrelevant. Breslin claims that pollsters do not call the 168 million cell phones in the country. Since many younger voters do not have a land line and just a cell phone, they will be hugely underrepresented in all the telephone polls. Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter, the polls may be greatly underestimating Kerry's strength. Between missing all the people who have only a cell phone and no land line and the 5 million overseas voters, the polls maybe missing a very large section of the electorate. If anyone working for a pollster or telecom company knows ***for sure*** whether pollsters call cell phones, please let me know. But please don't send e-mail on this subject if you are just speculating.
This sounds like the liberal spin machine getting ramped up and trying to make the future not look quite so bleak for Kerry.

Oh, don't forget the tree huggers and the ahmish (sp?), who may not even have phones!
they have plenty of polls to rely on that shows the race still close. I think it's a pretty interesting question. As we all know from 2000, even small numbers of voters can swing an election and put the candidate over the top (or not... depending on how the numbers are counted).
09-17-2004 01:14 PM
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Maize Offline
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Post: #4
 
Here is an article on this very subject and it is a good question.

<a href='http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/columnists/ny-nybres163973220sep16,0,5538561.column' target='_blank'>http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/...,5538561.column</a>
09-17-2004 01:19 PM
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GrayBeard Offline
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The point of polls is that they try and get a representative sample? It is not an exact science. The article makes a big hooha about 168 million cell phones. Yep, that is a big #, but how many of these don't have land lines? My guess would be 10% at the most and probably more like 2-3%. That alone would not make a difference in the sample.

Another thought to ponder---Of these younger voters that do not have a land line (as cited by this article) do they still live at home with their parents? If so, then this group has never been represented, because the polling calls would have gone to mommy and/or daddy.

Let me add, that I have been alive 31 years, and I can only recall being polled once (1), and I think that was by the RNC.
09-17-2004 01:21 PM
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Road Warrior Offline
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Quote:Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter...

Not so fast, my friend.

Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government conducted a survey whose news release announced: "Defying conventional wisdom, a new poll of America's college students finds they are significantly more supportive of President Bush than the general public."

Former Rep. Dan Glickman (D-Kan.), director of the Kennedy School's Institute of Politics, said, "The conventional view that the majority of America's college students are Democratic ... is clearly disproved."

<a href='http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/press/releases/2003/iop_survey_102203.htm' target='_blank'>Linky</a>
09-17-2004 02:14 PM
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Karl Offline
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Post: #7
 
While it may be true that many young people have only cell phones, the whole idea behind "random sampling" is to get a large enough sample to get to about 4% margin of error. If the sample is large enough, it's uncanny how often that margin is hit, regardless of individual sub-groups inclinations. I'd be surprised if youngsters being under-represented causes a major mis-calculation.
09-18-2004 12:37 AM
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