The Harris Poll
#66, September 16, 2004
Bush’s Convention Bounce Vanishes as Race Tightens
Kerry and Bush almost equal among likely voters, as slender majority believes Bush does not deserve to be re-elected.
ROCHESTER, N.Y. – September 16, 2004 – The latest Harris Poll finds that Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush are now enjoying almost equal levels of support. Immediately after the Republican convention in New York, several polls showed President Bush jumping ahead of Senator Kerry with a clear lead of between six and 11 percentage points. This "convention bounce" has now disappeared.
These are some of the results of a nationwide poll of 1,018 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive
between September 9 and 13, 2004. It seems that the short-term effects of the Republican convention have worn off. The poll shows Senator Kerry leading 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters. Obviously, this small lead is well within the possible sampling error of the survey (however, it would be incorrect to label even a one-point lead, as some media have done in the past, a "statistical dead heat").
One reason that President Bush is no longer ahead is that a slender 51 percent to 45 percent majority does not believe that he deserves to be re-elected.
TABLE 1
BUSH VS. KERRY
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused":
Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters
April
June
August
Now
%
%
%
%
George W. Bush
46
51
47
47
John Kerry
43
41
47
48
Ralph Nader
8
6
3
2
None of these
1
*
*
*
Not sure/Refused
2
1
3
3
Bush Lead
+3
+10
0
-1
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2
DOES BUSH DESERVE TO BE RE-ELECTED?
"Based on who he is and his record, do you think George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected for another four years?"
Base: Likely Voters
Total
%
Deserves to be re-elected
45
Does not deserve to be re-elected
51
Not sure/Refused
4
Methodology
The Harris Poll
was conducted by telephone within the United States between September 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults (ages 18+), 803 of whom are likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.
In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of ±3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. The statistical precision for the sample of likely voters is ±4 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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