Bush, Kerry in a draw, poll says
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Favorable public reaction to his performance in the first presidential debate has boosted Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and narrowed the contest with President Bush to a tie, according to a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll.
After the first presidential debate, Bush and Kerry are both at 49% among likely voters.
Bush's lead of 8 percentage points before Thursday's debate evaporated in a survey taken Friday through Sunday. Among likely voters, Bush and Kerry are at 49% each. Independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 1%. (Related item: Latest poll results)
As it enters its final month, the presidential campaign is essentially where it began: too close to call.
"This is an even-up race that's going to be decided by everything that happens in the next 30 days," says Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, calls the dead heat no surprise. "We always said this race would be tight — when we were up and when we were down," he says.
In the debate, focused on foreign policy and national security, Kerry argued that his position on Iraq had been consistent and called Bush's policies there misguided. The president was faulted afterward for his non-verbal communication: Reaction shots showed him scowling while Kerry was speaking.
The debate drew a TV audience of at least 62.5 million, according to the Nielsen ratings — a third more than watched the first presidential debate in 2000.
In the poll, Kerry:
• Reclaimed an advantage on the economy. Voters by 7 points say Kerry would handle the economy better than Bush. Before the debate, Bush was preferred on the issue for the first time, by 6 points.
Bush's 14-point advantage on handling Iraq was cut in half, to 7 points. He continues to hold a big advantage on handling terrorism, of 17 points, though that is down from 27 points in the Sept. 24-26 survey.
• Improved his standing as a potential commander in chief, though Bush is still preferred. By 5 points, voters say they trust Bush more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief. The president's advantage had been 16 points.
• Convinced more voters that he has a clear plan for Iraq, though still not a majority. In the poll, 41% say Kerry has a plan, up from 30% before the debate. For Bush, 49% say he has a clear plan, down from 52%.
• Was judged the winner of the debate by more than 2-to-1, 57% to 25%. By 13 points, voters say Kerry expresses himself more clearly than Bush. By 10 points, they say he is more intelligent.
With those glowing assessments come something candidates prefer to avoid: heightened expectations. By 48% to 41%, voters predict Kerry will do better than Bush in their second debate, on Friday in St. Louis.
In the 17 states seen by both sides as most competitive, Kerry has a slight lead, 47% to 45%. Before the debate, he lagged by 7 points in those battlegrounds.
For the first time, Nader's support has been adjusted to reflect only those states where he is on the ballot.
One reason for Kerry's rise was growing unease about Iraq. By 51% to 48%, voters said it was not a mistake to send U.S. troops there. That margin of approval is 10 points narrower than before the debate. And Iraq emerged as a more powerful issue in the campaign — equal to the economy, and second only to terrorism.
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