Reuters Poll: Bush, Kerry Tied in White House Race
Mon Oct 18, 2004 07:12 AM ET

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry pulled into a statistical dead heat with President Bush in a seesawing battle for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Monday.

The latest three-day tracking poll showed Kerry and Bush deadlocked at 45 percent apiece barely two weeks before the Nov. 2 election. The president had a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that.

About 7 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided between the two White House rivals.

"This is, as I have said before, the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead," pollster John Zogby said.

Kerry campaigned Sunday in Ohio and Florida while Bush took a day off in Washington. Ohio and Florida top a list of about 10 tightly fought swing states where the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the White House will be decided.

With both candidates battling for every last vote, Bush holds a four-point edge in the suburbs and the two candidates are tied in small cities, the poll found. Kerry comfortably leads Bush among urban voters and Bush holds a strong lead among rural voters.

Kerry, who is Catholic but has sparked opposition among some Catholic bishops by supporting abortion rights, now leads among Catholic voters by 4 percentage points.

The poll of 1,211 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1 percent of likely voters.


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