Bush, Kerry Tied in Three Polls; Bush Leads in Two (Update2)

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush opened a lead of as much as 8 percentage points over four-term Massachusetts Senator John Kerry in two national polls, and the candidates are tied in three others.

Bush is leading Kerry 52 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in a USA Today/CNN poll conducted by the Gallup Organization after their final debate last week. They were tied in a survey before the debate. The error margin is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Newsweek found Bush was backed by 50 percent and Kerry was supported by 44 percent in a poll with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

In polls by the Washington Post, Reuters/Zogby International and Time magazine, the results were within the margin of error. Bush was backed by 50 percent likely voters in the Post poll, and Kerry was supported by 47 percent. In the Reuters/Zogby survey, Bush led Kerry 46 percent to 44 percent. Bush had 48 support to Kerry's 46 percent in the Time poll.

``We trust our own polls,'' Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart said on the ``Fox News Sunday'' program. `` We have this as a very close race. I think we have a little bit of an edge.''

Bush campaign chairman Marc Racicot agreed in the same interview that the race is close. He said the polls show Bush may be building a lead.

Still Close

``If you take a look at the average of all of the numbers since the last debate, you'll see some separation there,'' Racicot said, though the margin isn't ``as large as we would like it to be.''

Washington-based Gallup surveyed 788 likely voters Oct. 14- 16 and the poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points. The Post poll was conducted Oct. 13-15 among 1,203 adults identified as likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Utica, New York-based Zogby surveyed 1,211 likely voters Oct. 14-16 and the error margin is 2.9 percentage points. The Time and Newsweek polls were conducted Oct. 14-15. Time polled 865 likely voters and Newsweek 880. The error margin for both is 4 percentage points.

The Post poll found the margin between Bush and Kerry widening nationally over the past week from a dead heat. Zogby's survey showed the gap narrowing from 4 percentage points Oct. 12- 14. Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who is on the ballot in 34 states, drew support of 1 percent in the Post, Zogby and Gallup polls.

Campaign in States

Bush, 58, and Kerry, 60, took part in the last of three debates on Oct. 13. With a little more than two weeks before the Nov. 2 election, the two candidates are focusing on the so-called battleground states that their advisers say may decide the election.

Kerry attended a church service at the Mount Olivet Baptist Church in Columbus, Ohio, before flying to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, for a get-out-the vote rally. Bush carried Ohio and Florida in 2000, and state polls, such as one conducted Oct. 11- 12 in Florida by Atlanta-based consulting company InsiderAdvantage, show he and Kerry are about even in those states. The states have a combined 47 electoral votes out of 270 needed to win the presidency.

Bush campaigned in Florida yesterday and he returns there this week. He will stop tomorrow in New Jersey, a state he lost in 2000 by 15.8 percentage points. A poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University in Teaneck, New Jersey, found the race to be a dead heat there with Kerry supported by 44 percent and Bush 42 percent. The poll was conducted Oct. 8-14 and has a 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

Battlegrounds

The Post reported its poll shows Kerry leading 53 percent to 43 percent in 13 battleground states, which the newspaper didn't define.

The state results are important because the winning candidate must gain majorities in enough states to collect at least 270 Electoral College votes in the Nov. 2 election. The electoral votes are apportioned among states based on congressional representation. The electoral tally, not the nationwide popular vote, determines the election.

A review of state polls by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Utah, with 178 electoral votes. Kerry, 60, leads in 11 states, including New York and Illinois, with 164 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 196 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Florida, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.

The Post poll also found most of the public disapproves of comments Kerry made in the last debate about Mary Cheney, Vice President Dick Cheney's daughter.

Asked whether he believes homosexuality is a choice, Kerry said, ``If you were to talk to Dick Cheney's daughter, who is a lesbian, she would tell you that she's being who she was, she's being who she was born as.''

Sixty-four percent of likely voters said Kerry's remarks were ``inappropriate,'' as did about 40 percent of Kerry supporters, according to the Post poll. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Racicot said on ABC that Kerry's statement was ``absolutely wrong and was raw opportunism''

Lockhart said Cheney brought up his daughter's sexual orientation in the 2000 campaign and that Kerry was lauding Cheney's ``tolerance and his abilities as a parent.''

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