In ABC News-Washington Post he is up by 1. Zogby has the President up by 3 and Gallup has the President up by 5 with likely voters and 2 with Registered Voters. Once again Gallup oversamples Republican Voters. The problem with their numbers is that Democrats have traditionally sent larger numbers in Presidential races. It is usually around 37% for Democrats, 34% for Republicans and the rest Indys.

Once again, it oversamples Republicans as it has all year.

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Poll of October 14-16
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample = 788
GOP: 296 (38%)
Dem: 278 (35%)
Ind: 211 (27%)

Poll of October 22-24, 2004
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-46%

Total Sample = 1195
GOP: 466 (39%)
Dem: 406 (34%)
Ind: 321 (27%)

Note that Gallup has used a sample today that turns a 3% GOP advantage in their LV sample last week into a 5% advantage. Yet Bush's margin went down.

Registered Voters

Poll of October 14-16
Reflected Bush Winning by 50%-46%

Total Sample: 942
GOP: 348 (37%)
Dem: 327 (35%)
Ind: 259 (27%)

Poll of October 22-24
Reflected Bush Winning by 49%-48%

Total Sample: 1461
GOP: 542 (37%)
Dem: 500 (34%)
Ind: 411 (28%)