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Study: Earth is warming because of us
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Schadenfreude Offline
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<a href='http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/02/17/global.warming.reut/' target='_blank'>http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/0...l.warming.reut/</a>

<a href='http://www.freep.com/news/nw/warm18e_20050218.htm' target='_blank'>http://www.freep.com/news/nw/warm18e_20050218.htm</a>
02-18-2005 05:18 AM
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JTiger Offline
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Was there any doubt that we are causing global warming?
02-18-2005 08:16 AM
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Lethemeul Offline
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JTiger Wrote:Was there any doubt that we are causing global warming?
:wave:

In the 1970's, they said the planet was on the verge of a new Ice Age.

In the 1970's, they said that human population had grown too large. Massive famines were on the way.

They provided studies to back up their assertions 30 years ago, too.
02-18-2005 08:25 AM
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Fanatical Offline
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being humans, I'm sure we'll adapt easily
02-18-2005 09:20 AM
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blah Offline
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Is it getting hot in here?
02-18-2005 09:29 AM
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JTiger Wrote:Was there any doubt that we are causing global warming?
Absolutely

<a href='http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/18/wsun18.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/07/18/ixnewstop.html' target='_blank'>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml.../ixnewstop.html</a>

This work (and other work similar to it) has been presented frequently. I used to have some links from a NASA site, but that's gone or moved now.

The question is far from being answered, and this article is terrible for making the connection between anthropogenic activity and global warming. No connections are established w/ this research. The research is good, it is the conclusions that are irresponsible.

I am further disgusted by any reference to the Kyoto Protocol, because that is a disaster soon to happen. Why do none of these advocates mention the infamous "brown cloud" that lingered over China a couple of years ago, and has since had effects on California (and everything in between)!?

Inc. magazine even referenced it in the current isssue!

Transitioning manufacturing to China, India, Brazil, etc will only WORSEN any environmental issues.

So, I am left puzzled why this sort of thing keeps making the news. It is irresponsible, and legitimizes the criticims leveled against the news media.
02-18-2005 09:55 AM
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gruehls
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Post: #7
 
The Opinion Journal from The Wall Street Journal


Hockey Stick on Ice
Politicizing the science of global warming.

Friday, February 18, 2005 12:01 a.m. EST

On Wednesday National Hockey League Commissioner Gary Bettman canceled the season, and we guess that's a loss. But this week also brought news of something else that's been put on ice. We're talking about the "hockey stick."

Just so we're clear, this hockey stick isn't a sports implement; it's a scientific graph. Back in the late 1990s, American geoscientist Michael Mann published a chart that purported to show average surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,000 years. The chart showed relatively minor fluctuations in temperature over the first 900 years, then a sharp and continuous rise over the past century, giving it a hockey-stick shape.

Mr. Mann's chart was both a scientific and political sensation. It contradicted a body of scientific work suggesting a warm period early in the second millennium, followed by a "Little Ice Age" starting in the 14th century. It also provided some visually arresting scientific support for the contention that fossil-fuel emissions were the cause of higher temperatures. Little wonder, then, that Mr. Mann's hockey stick appears five times in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's landmark 2001 report on global warming, which paved the way to this week's global ratification--sans the U.S., Australia and China--of the Kyoto Protocol.

Yet there were doubts about Mr. Mann's methods and analysis from the start. In 1998, Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics published a paper in the journal Climate Research, arguing that there really had been a Medieval warm period. The result: Messrs. Soon and Baliunas were treated as heretics and six editors at Climate Research were made to resign.

Still, questions persisted. In 2003, Stephen McIntyre, a Toronto minerals consultant and amateur mathematician, and Ross McKitrick, an economist at Canada's University of Guelph, jointly published a critique of the hockey stick analysis. Their conclusion: Mr. Mann's work was riddled with "collation errors, unjustifiable truncations of extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculations of principal components, and other quality control defects." Once these were corrected, the Medieval warm period showed up again in the data.

This should have produced a healthy scientific debate. Instead, as the Journal's Antonio Regalado reported Monday, Mr. Mann tried to shut down debate by refusing to disclose the mathematical algorithm by which he arrived at his conclusions. All the same, Mr. Mann was forced to publish a retraction of some of his initial data, and doubts about his statistical methods have since grown. Statistician Francis Zwiers of Environment Canada (a government agency) notes that Mr. Mann's method "preferentially produces hockey sticks when there are none in the data." Other reputable scientists such as Berkeley's Richard Muller and Hans von Storch of Germany's GKSS Center essentially agree.

We realize this may all seem like so much academic nonsense. Yet if there really was a Medieval warm period (we draw no conclusions), it would cast some doubt on the contention that our SUVs and air conditioners, rather than natural causes, are to blame for apparent global warming.
There is also the not-so-small matter of the politicization of science: If climate scientists feel their careers might be put at risk by questioning some orthodoxy, the inevitable result will be bad science. It says something that it took two non-climate scientists to bring Mr. Mann's errors to light.

But the important point is this: The world is being lobbied to place a huge economic bet--as much as $150 billion a year--on the notion that man-made global warming is real. Businesses are gearing up, at considerable cost, to deal with a new regulatory environment; complex carbon-trading schemes are in the making. Shouldn't everyone look very carefully, and honestly, at the science before we jump off this particular cliff?


<a href='http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110006314' target='_blank'>Politicizing the science of global warming.</a>
02-18-2005 10:22 AM
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JTiger Offline
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blah Wrote:Is it getting hot in here?
It has been since you put up your new avatar. :D
02-18-2005 11:42 AM
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Rebel
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Post: #9
 
There have been several ice ages over the life of this planet, each followed by a period of "global warming". This transition took several hundreds of thousands of years. Schad, and other Dems now tell us that we, who have been here the equivalent of mouse fart is now telling us that we are causing it? :laugh:

Um, Ok.
02-18-2005 12:10 PM
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Motown Bronco Offline
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From the CNN article:

Quote:She said the changes were already causing droughts in the U.S. west.

But I just read that California, Arizona, Nevada, etc, have experienced record rains this winter. 03-confused

It sounds like the global warming community has taken a huge offensive lately in the wake of Michael Crichton's book "State of Fear", a story about eco-terrorists who secretly cause 'natural' disasters to hype up fear amongst the populace. Crichton questions the validity of man-made global warming assertions, while providing footnotes to the evidence, and says that both sides of the debate have politicized the issue far too much.

There is a weath of information out there ranging from the "Yes, we did it" to "No, it's natural" (like Torch's link). Depends on who you want to believe.

Case in point:

By the looks of this particular chart, we've just been too chilly the past several centuries, and now we're finally catching up to the early Medieval days.

<a href='http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html' target='_blank'>http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html</a>

[Image: image158.gif]

The site also says that the hottest period in history was between 4500 and 7000 years ago.


If the conveyor belt theory is true, looks like I'll be heading south soon... :wave:
02-18-2005 07:57 PM
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Motown Bronco Offline
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Another he-said/she-said...


<a href='http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/02/17/global.warming.reut/' target='_blank'>http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/0...l.warming.reut/</a>

Quote:"Ice is in decline everywhere on the planet."



<a href='http://www.globalwarming.org/article.php?uid=192' target='_blank'>http://www.globalwarming.org/article.php?uid=192</a>

Quote:The new study finds that "Our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn." The McMurdo Dry Valleys, for example, have cooled about 0.7 degrees Celsius per decade during this period of time.

The authors conclude that, "Continental Antarctic cooling, especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of climate, and ecosystem change."
02-18-2005 08:49 PM
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Motown Bronco Wrote:Another he-said/she-said...


<a href='http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/02/17/global.warming.reut/' target='_blank'>http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/0...l.warming.reut/</a>

Quote:"Ice is in decline everywhere on the planet."



<a href='http://www.globalwarming.org/article.php?uid=192' target='_blank'>http://www.globalwarming.org/article.php?uid=192</a>

Quote:The new study finds that "Our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn." The McMurdo Dry Valleys, for example, have cooled about 0.7 degrees Celsius per decade during this period of time.

The authors conclude that, "Continental Antarctic cooling, especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of climate, and ecosystem change."
Your second source is... I'm not sure what it is, a clearing house... but here are some of the sponsors of globalwarming.org:

-- Americans for Tax Reform (Grover Norquist; very little room to the right of him)
-- American Legislative Exchange Council (right wing)
-- Citizens for a Sound Economy (right wing)

Not liberals, these.

The fact that ice is melting rapidly in Antarctica is difficult to dispute.

<a href='http://igloo.gsfc.nasa.gov/wais/links/ASEP-final.pdf' target='_blank'>http://igloo.gsfc.nasa.gov/wais/links/ASEP-final.pdf</a>

And, as far as the Wall Street Journal, they won't buy into the idea of global warming until most of their newsroom is under water.
02-18-2005 09:03 PM
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Post: #13
 
Oooooo, let's all start driving hybrids and feeding the cows Beano&reg; :rolleyes:
02-18-2005 09:11 PM
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Motown Bronco Offline
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Schadenfreude Wrote:
Motown Bronco Wrote:Another he-said/she-said...


<a href='http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/02/17/global.warming.reut/' target='_blank'>http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/0...l.warming.reut/</a>

Quote:"Ice is in decline everywhere on the planet."



<a href='http://www.globalwarming.org/article.php?uid=192' target='_blank'>http://www.globalwarming.org/article.php?uid=192</a>

Quote:The new study finds that "Our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn." The McMurdo Dry Valleys, for example, have cooled about 0.7 degrees Celsius per decade during this period of time.

The authors conclude that, "Continental Antarctic cooling, especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of climate, and ecosystem change."
Your second source is... I'm not sure what it is, a clearing house... but here are some of the sponsors of globalwarming.org:

-- Americans for Tax Reform (Grover Norquist; very little room to the right of him)
-- American Legislative Exchange Council (right wing)
-- Citizens for a Sound Economy (right wing)

Not liberals, these.

The fact that ice is melting rapidly in Antarctica is difficult to dispute.

<a href='http://igloo.gsfc.nasa.gov/wais/links/ASEP-final.pdf' target='_blank'>http://igloo.gsfc.nasa.gov/wais/links/ASEP-final.pdf</a>

And, as far as the Wall Street Journal, they won't buy into the idea of global warming until most of their newsroom is under water.
From 1986 to 2000 Central Antarctica valleys cooled .7 C per decade with serious ecosystem damage from cold.
2002, "Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response", Nature, 415: 517-20

Both satellite data and ground stations show slight cooling over the last 20 years
2000, "Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from 'in situ' and satellite infrared measurements", Journal of Climate, 13: 1674-96

Side-looking radar measurements show West Antarctic Ice is increasing at 26.8 gigatons per year... reversing the melting trend of the last 6,000 years.
2002, Science, 296: 895-99

During the last four interglacials, going back 420,000 years, the Earth was warmer than it is today
1999, "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica," Nature, 399: 429-36

Less Antarctic ice has melted today than occurred during the last interglacial
1999, "Radiocarbon constraints on ice sheet advance and retreat in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica," Geology, 27: 179-82.

Antarctic sea ice has increased since 1979
2004, "Interpretation of recent Antarctic sea ice variability," Geophysical Research Letters, 31: 10.1029/2003 GL018732

The greater part of Antarctica experiences a longer sea-ice season, lasting 21 days longer than it did in 1979.
2002, "Trends in the length of the southern Ocean sea-ice season, 1979-99" Annals of Glaciology, 34: 435-40.

Trend toward more sea ice may be accelerating
2003, "On the secular trends in sea ice extent over the antarctic region based on OCEANSAT-1 MSMR observations," Internatlonal Journal of Remote Sensing, 24: 2277-87.


It's just funny how that scientist in the CNN article said that ice is on the decline "everywhere". Exaggeration and a little scare-mongering, perhaps?

As for your source: I know NASA is a credible source as well, but they do have that little ".gov" domain in their address. Doesn't mean they're lying, but it is a publicly tax-funded institution that may have an agenda just as much as any "right wing" site may have.

I think there are five camps:
1. Those who believe global warming is caused solely by man
2. Those who believe global warming is caused by solar activity
3. Those who believe global warming is a natural cycle
4. Those who believe global warming may be happening, but unsure why, or it could be caused by a variety of reasons (including man, solar activity, natural climate cycles, etc)
5. Those who refuse to believe global warming is happening at all

I tend to side with #4 more often than not.
02-18-2005 09:46 PM
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Rebel
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Post: #15
 
I would fall in the #3 camp. Mt. St. Helens right south of here produces much of the pollution up here....and its only one volcano. Eruptions have happened since the beginning of time. There is nothing we can do to stop them. It is pure arrogance to think that we humans, on this Earth just a blip on the radar screen to the life of this planet, can kill it.
02-18-2005 10:01 PM
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By the way, you guys ought to know the only "correct" analysts are the ones that support Schad's "theory". All the others don't know what they are talking about.
02-18-2005 10:02 PM
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Motown Bronco Offline
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Post: #17
 
I'm no climatologist, but my question is...

Let's assume the Gulf Stream conveyor belt theory is accurate, and that all the fresh water melting off the Arctic will seep into the North Atlantic and sit on top of the salty water, thus shutting off the stream current. Upon this, it will evidently get massively colder in the North Atlantic, W. Europe, and part of the US. Wouldn't a few seasons of this nasty frigid weather just freeze up the fresh water again (Wash. Rinse. Repeat.)? Or am I missing something.

As far as global warming, there are so many theories that I believe the jury is still out on all of it. I do believe in environmentally sound things... ie recycling, keeping waste under control (most pollution is caused by the fed govt, btw), veering toward cleaner energy, fuel-efficient cars, and the like. So to that extent, I can sympathise with those who want to be more environmentally conscious. But the Kyoto Treaty was bunk and grossly unfair to the US, especially using that 1990 benchmark (I won't go into the details now). And without pollutive China and India playing along, the accord is worthless. Moreover, there is a lot of credible evidence against the notion that man is the most significant player in climate change. I believe that we might be a small player, but I think that natural cycles (including various El Nino strengths) and sun radiation activity plays larger roles. But I really have no idea.
02-18-2005 10:13 PM
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moloch_322 Offline
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I think, and a couple of astronomers will agree, that the sun plays more into this than anything else. The sun is going through more frequent and violent solar cycles than ever before recorded.
02-19-2005 07:25 AM
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moloch_322 Wrote:I think, and a couple of astronomers will agree, that the sun plays more into this than anything else.&nbsp; The sun is going through more frequent and violent solar cycles than ever before recorded.
Those damn Neo-Cons! What is Karl Rove doing to the Sun?!

This is amusing. Schade only comes out once to say "Your sources are poopy heads" and then disappears.

:ownd: [Image: bowlgreen.gif] :ownd:
02-19-2005 02:20 PM
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gruehls
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Schadenfreude Wrote:And, as far as the Wall Street Journal, they won't buy into the idea of global warming until most of their newsroom is under water.

wow! such a thing to say about your compatriots, you being a self-proclaimed journalist and journalism expert.

perhaps they simply don't measure up to the "schad journalistic standards." still, they seem to have a follower or two.

i think that before they let the newsroom flood, they'll figure a way to make a buck off the water and employ a few thousand people in the process. in doing so, they will outperform a couple dozen of your favorite government programs.
02-19-2005 02:36 PM
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