I am having a hard time uploading this on my site, so here it is in advance of my posting for you guys to read and discuss.
Week #5 Nick’s Picks
Last week I went 7-3 straight up and 5-4 against the spread. It’s funny as the season goes on how tight some of these lines get, even with MAC teams who receive so little press. This week more league games take place so here is how I see things shaping up this weekend. For the year, I am 37-9 straight up (81%) and 20-14 ATS (59%). That has been consistent with my four-year average. Marshall & Bowling Green are idle this week.
Saturday - September 28, 2002
Ball State (1-2) at Connecticut (2-2) Site: Memorial Stadium (16,200/natural grass) Storrs, Ct. Time: noon Series: BSU 2-0 Last Meeting: BSU 10-5, 2001 The Coaches: BSU-Bill Lynch (32-49, eighth season at BSU; 68-61-3, 13th season overall); UConn-Randy Edsall (11-26, fourth season). This is the third straight year these teams have met ... BSU won 29-0 in Muncie in 2000 and 10-5 at Storrs last year ... Talmadge Hill's interception last week at Clemson snapped a streak of 109 consecutive passes without an interception ... the Huskies have wins over MAC members Buffalo, 24-3, and Ohio, 37-19, this year ... Marcus Merriweather (2,741 career yards) needs 743 yards to become the school's all-time leading rusher.
The Story: Thus far the U-Conn Huskies have feasted on MAC bottom-feeders Buffalo and Ohio and currently have a 2-2 record. UC has an 8-point loss to Boston College and a 17-point loss to Georgia Tech. Overall this is a team that averages about 315-total yards per game and 23-points per outing. Ball State is just 1-2 and has been dreadful on offense scoring just 12 points per game. BSU has given the ball away six times in just three games. I like the Cardinals in a very close game here since this team can run the ball and sooner or later this offense will click. They do have talent. Ohio’s defense really stopped the Huskies last week until three 4th quarter turnovers did the Bobcats in as U-Conn needed short scoring drives to score. This is a close game that can go either way.
Prediction: Ball State 19 - U. Conn 17
The Line: U. Conn by 5
Central Michigan (3-1) at Boston College (2-1) Site: Alumni Stadium (44,500/astroturf) Chestnut Hill, Mass. Time: noon Series: first meeting Last Meeting: none The Coaches: CMU-Mike DeBord (8-18, third season); BC-Tom O'Brien (33-28, sixth season). Both teams suffered their first loss of the season last week, CMU by a 39-29 count to Indiana and BC a 38-6 victim of top ranked Miami (Fla.) ... Robbie Mixon leads the nation in all-purpose yards with 196.3 per game ... Mixon has three 100-yard plus rushing outputs in four games this season and his 132.0 ypg average is third in the MAC ... CMU's 21.5 points per game allowed is 10 less than last year's 31.5.
The Story: The BC Eagles are a difficult team to figure. Last week they lost as expected to Miami (Fl.) but looked very average against U-Conn and in the first half against Stanford. BC’s offense is nothing special although they do have a good QB. Central Michigan lost for the first time this season last week when hapless Indiana went on a 23-0 run in the 4th quarter to win 39-29. Central Michigan can score points but has not faced a defense this good yet. BC will win ugly, but three touchdowns is a little high. In fact, the game may be a little closer than my prediction below.
Prediction: Boston College 33 – Central Michigan 14
The Line: BC by 21
Virginia Tech (4-0) at Western Michigan (1-2) Site: Waldo Stadium (30,200/prescription athletic turf) Kalamazoo, Mich. Time: noon Series: VT 1-0 Last Meeting: VT 31-0, 2001 The Coaches: VT-Frank Beamer (111-65-2, 16th season at VT; 153-88-4, 22nd season overall); WMU-Gary Darnell (37-23, sixth season at WMU; 43-55, 10th season overall). The Hokies are the highest ranked team to ever visit a MAC stadium as they are listed at No. 5 in both major polls ... last year in Blacksburg, the Hokies were ranked No. 9 ... WMU has two QBs ranked in the top 10 in the MAC in passing efficiency - Chad Munson at No. 2 (152.4) and Jon Drach at No. 10 (111.4) ... as a team, WMU is fifth in the MAC in passing efficiency (131.1) ... VT beat MAC member Marshall earlier this year 47-21 and won last week at Texas A&M 13-3 ... Virginia Tech Director of Athletics Jim Weaver held the A.D. post at WMU from January 1996 to September 1997 and hired Gary Darnell as head coach.
The Story: This is a terrific game for a MAC school to host. The MAC has never had a team this highly ranked visit them in the conference’s 55-year history. VT has to be battle tested after three straight games against LSU, Marshall and Texas A&M. That was a difficult row to hoe. Western Michigan has had two weeks to prepare for this game after losing a heartbreaker at Purdue. Coach Darnell and the folks of Kalamazoo will do everything they can to get a win at home and the crowd will be jacked. Unfortunately the Hokies are too good of a team to lose this game but it should be very entertaining and closer than the oddsmakers believe. This game has a real chance to be the MAC’s largest home crowd in conference history. My prediction on that is 37,000 and some change in the 30,200 seat Waldo Stadium.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 33 – Western Michigan 17
The Line: V-Tech by 22
Kent State (2-2, 0-1 MAC) at Northern Illinois (1-3, 0-0 MAC) Site: Huskie Stadium (31,000/Field Turf) DeKalb, Ill. Time: 1:05 (CT) Series: NIU 11-7 Last Meeting: KSU 44-34, 2001 The Coaches: KSU-Dean Pees (11-37, fifth season); NIU-Joe Novak (21-49, seventh season). This is the league opener for the Huskies while the Golden Flashes dropped a 27-20 contest at Miami last week ... KSU last won in DeKalb in 1981 ... NIU's Michael Turner's 282 rushing yards last week versus Western Illinois boosted him into second place in the MAC with 134.8 yards per game ... in first place is KSU quarterback Joshua Cribbs at 154.5 ypg ... Cribbs is also averaging an amazing 9.4 yards per carry.
The Story: Kent State really roughed up NIU last fall, which triggered their season turnaround for a surprising 6-5 record. I can’t figure out NIU right now. How do you beat Wake Forest and nearly beat Wisconsin, then lay an egg against Western Illinois & South Florida? Kent State is a one-man show in QB Joshua Cribbs. Cribbs cannot be stopped and seems to get better every single week. This will be a close game but I’m giving the slight edge to the home town team since KSU has been historically a dreadful team on the road.
Prediction: Northern Illinois 27 – Kent St. 21
The Line: NIU by 7
Toledo (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1) Site: Heinz Field (65,000/natural grass) Pittsburgh, Pa. Time: 1:30 Series: first meeting Last Meeting: none The Coaches: UT-Tom Amstutz (13-3, second season); Pittsburgh-Walt Harris (30-32, sixth season at Pittsburgh; 41-56, ninth season overall). Toledo, the defending MAC Champion, plays its final non-conference game this week ... the Rockets are 6-1 under Tom Amstutz in non-conference games ... William Bratton's eight rushing TDs leads the MAC ... Pittsburgh opened its season with a 27-14 win over MAC member Ohio, and last week the Panthers topped Rutgers 23-3 ... last week Toledo beat UNLV 38-21 despite being outgained in total offense 472 yards to 257.
The Story: Pitt has struggled with some really awful teams this year. Ohio, UAB & Rutgers are some of the poorest IA football programs right now. Pitt played well defensively against Texas A&M and the Panther have a stout defense, probably the best UT will face all year. Pitt’s offense is dreadful, but then again, Toledo’s undersized defensive line is nothing special. Toledo’s offense will be one of the best scoring units Pitt faces all year. Toledo dominated UNLV in the first half last week and then got really conservative in the second half. I see the Toledo Rockets, who recruit the Pittsburgh area hard, to really open up their offense and special teams units with a very open and unpredictable show and pull out a close game between two evenly matched teams. Turnovers will be the key to this game.
Prediction: Toledo 24 – Pitt 21
The Line: Pitt by 4.5
Southern Illinois (2-2) at Eastern Michigan (1-2) Site: Rynearson Stadium (30,2000/astroturf) Ypsilanti, Mich. Time: 6:00 Series: tied 6-6 Last Meeting: SIU 20-14, 1961 The Coaches: SIU-Jerry Kill (3-12, second season at SIU; 52-37, 11th season overall); EMU-Jeff Woodruff (6-19, third season) EMU's Kevin Walter leads the MAC in receptions per game with 8.0 ... Ime Akpan is sixth in the league with 103.0 rushing yards per game ... Akpan is one of three backs in the league to have two games with 150-plus rushing yards (154 versus Southeast Missouri and 152 versus Toledo) ... the Eagles are coming off a 45-3 loss at Maryland while the Salukis beat West Virginia Tech 76-21 ... this is EMU's last non-conference game in 2002 ... these teams met every year from 1950-1961.
The Story: The Sulukis’ dropped Toledo to play EMU, so it’s obvious they are trying to win a game against a IA team rather than just getting a paycheck. Gateway teams are 1-2 versus the MAC this year and historically have given MAC schools a lot of trouble, especially struggling programs like EMU. SIU is 2-2 with wins over Division II Kentucky Wesleyan & WV Tech and losses to SE Missouri State and Murray State. EMU barely beat SE Missouri State two weeks ago. Eastern has the poorest defense in IA football giving up 49-points per game and 544 yards per contest. This is likely EMU’s last chance at victory for the 2002 season.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 28 – SIU 27
The Line: No Line
Miami (2-2, 1-0 MAC) at Akron (0-4, 0-1 MAC) Site: Rubber Bowl (35,202/artificial turf) Time: 6:00 Series: Miami 8-4-1 Last Meeting: Miami 30-27, 2001 The Coaches: UA-Lee Owens (29-52, eighth season); Miami-Terry Hoeppner (22-16, fourth season). Miami snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a 27-20 league-opening win over Kent State ... the Zips will be out to shakeoff a four-game losing streak after a 48-29 shootout at Virginia last week ... both teams are led by sophomore QBs - Akron's Charlie Frye and Miami's Ben Roethlisberger ... Frye has 1,028 yards while completing 63.9% of his passes and Roethlisberger 940 yards and a 60.1% pass completion rate ... Miami's 176 rushing yards last week versus Kent State was the most since 212 yards Sept. 29, 2001 versus Ball State.
The Story: Akron has been a ‘snake-bit’ team this year with injuries and bad breaks. Their new defensive scheme is yielding 455-yards per game and 43-points per outing. The offensive line is not blocking well and QB Charlie Frye needs some help from his teammates. Miami looked great for the 1st three quarters against UNC in week #1, but has since struggled against a rugged schedule that included LSU & Iowa. Miami seems to have found a running game to help out Ben Roethlisberger and his aerial circus. Last season Miami won at home with a final play “Hail Mary.” Akron has been pointing to this game for revenge ever since. Look for Akron to continue this tumultuous season with a heartbreaking loss at home to the RedHawks.
Prediction: Miami 26 – Akron 24
The Line: Miami by 10
Liberty (1-2) at UCF (0-3) Site: Citrus Bowl (70,188/Bermuda grass) Time: 6:00 Series: UCF 7-3 Last Meeting: UCF 63-0, 2001 The Coaches: Liberty-Ken Karcher (7-18, third season); UCF-Mike Kruczek (26-21, fifth season). This is UCF's first home game of the year after three straight road games at Penn State, Arizona State and Marshall ... the Golden Knights suffered two of their losses (PSU and Marshall) by a combined eight points ... sophomore Alex Haynes rushed for 131 yards at Marshall, his fifth career 100 yard-plus game ... Doug Gabriel is third in the MAC with 6.3 receptions and 107.0 receiving yards per game ... Liberty lost last week to Appalachian State 29-22.
The Story: It’s not a good time to be a Liberty Flame. LU is visiting a very hungry UCF team that has not played a home game yet this season and is 0-3 with solid talent. UCF beat Liberty last year 63-0 and I would expect more of the same. Here is a stat; Appalachian State lost at Marshall 50-17 but beat Liberty by 7 points while UCF lost by 5 points at Marshall. When you do the math, it’s a huge Golden Knight victory and it may get worse than my predicted score below.
Prediction: UCF 58 – Liberty 10
The Line: No Line
Buffalo (1-3, 0-0 MAC) at Ohio (0-4, 0-0 MAC) Site: Peden Stadium (24,000/field turf) Athens, Ohio Time: 7:00 Series: first meeting Last Meeting: none The Coaches: UB-Jim Hofher (4-11, second season at UB; 48-47, 10th season overall); Ohio-Brian Knorr (1-13, second season). This is the MAC opener for both teams ... UB is 1-2 in MAC openers during its first three years in the league ... Ohio will be out to break a 10-game losing streak and win its first home game since the 2000 season ... the Bobcats held a late third quarter 19-6 lead at Connecticut last week before allowing 31 unanswered points in a 37-19 loss ... UB fell behind at Minnesota, 31-0, before closing the gap to 34-17 in an eventual 41-17 loss ... Ohio's Bop White made his 15th career interception last week to tie former Akron All-American Dwight Smith for fourth place all-time in MAC history.
The Story: Ohio has talent but under Coach Brian Knorr, has become a hapless team that plays with little emotion and seems to make bad breaks for themselves rather than making good plays to put them into a winning situation. Ohio is 93rd in the country in turnover margin, and an option offense with little passing skills cannot do that and expect to win often. Outside of RB Chad Brinker, no one seems to be playing with much passion. Buffalo is shown some signs of life this year coupled by a 34-11 win at Rutgers and scoring 14 points in the second quarter at Minnesota when they trailed 31-0 in the ballgame. Last season UB ran circles around Ohio crushing the Bobcats 44-0. There is some confidence on the UB sidelines as a team moving in the right direction while the OU sidelines is sinking in quicksand. Ohio has not won a game in their newly refurbished Peden Stadium and I say that pathetic trend continues. Buffalo should pull away in the 4th quarter.
Prediction: Buffalo 23 – Ohio 17
The Line: Ohio by 8
|
