Up to 9%

https://atozsports.com/college-football-...s/liberty/

We'd need a ton of things to go down for this to be anything more fantasy. But I'm here for the conversation.

There would be a lot of things needing to go right but at least there’s a chance!

I cannot phathom this coming to fruition.

(10-25-2026 03:14 PM)army56mike Wrote:  I cannot phathom this coming to fruition.

I think there are a lot of opportunities for other leagues to cannibalize their best prospects. Liberty isn't unbeatable, but CUSA is not as strong this year, so there is a good chance the Flames run the table.

Beyond them winning out and finishing 12-1 they need a lot of other things to happen.

JMU needs to lose at least once more and not win the SBC.

Nobody else finishes with just one loss.

Boise needs to lose three times.

UTSA tearing it up again.

Pretty amazing for a team that had no football not that long ago.

(10-25-2026 07:23 PM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  UTSA tearing it up again.

Pretty amazing for a team that had no football not that long ago.

I always felt like they had UCF style potential (no pro football team to compete against in a large metro, large student pop) just needed the admin and financial commitment. Traylor is a good coach and they pay him $2.8 million a year to keep him around.

Not sure our SOS will allow us to get in this year. Even if we 'run the table', we have a dismal SOS and if JMU loses again, that would further diminish our resume since they are probably seen as our toughest game on the schedule this year. I believe other one/two loss programs with tougher schedules probably get the nod over LU.

After they lose the CUSACG to Jax State they will be done.

(10-27-2026 12:58 PM)rtb72 Wrote:  Not sure our SOS will allow us to get in this year. Even if we 'run the table', we have a dismal SOS and if JMU loses again, that would further diminish our resume since they are probably seen as our toughest game on the schedule this year. I believe other one/two loss programs with tougher schedules probably get the nod over LU.

Liberty would need every other G candidate to have at least 2 losses, maybe 3 depending on the team. Not impossible given how other leagues have been playing out.

I think 9% is generous.

Even if Liberty wins out, the loss to JMU hurts, and JMU's remaining schedule doesn't exactly raise the Dukes' competitive profile. They'd need to take a loss, but that same loss would destroy what little bit of schedule strength the Flames are clinging to. It's a Catch-22.

It's not going to be a repeat of 2023.

Hopefully next season, CUSA can get a team or two in contention. But it's not gonna happen this year.

I'm a Liberty fan and i think we have no shot at the playoffs.

The only way a CUSA team makes the CFP is by going "undefeated" and by running over all of their out of conference opponents as well. Remember the only G-6 conference rated lower than us is the MAC.

(10-28-2026 09:50 AM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote:  The only way a CUSA team makes the CFP is by going "undefeated" and by running over all of their out of conference opponents as well. Remember the only G-6 conference rated lower than us is the MAC.

Going undefeated is a definite, unless the lone loss is a close/respectable loss against a P4.

Any loss to a G6 is fatal.

Our CFP contender would obviously have to roll over all its G6 nonconference opponents, but at least a couple of those schools would have to be higher-end programs. (JMU, not ULM. Memphis, not Rice. You get the idea.)

It gets tricky in-conference, though. If the contender rolls through CUSA, it would just "expose" CUSA as being weak, which would be counter-productive. So at least a few of those games would have to be tough, well-played games against CUSA teams who themselves have earned some respect.

In a nutshell, that means the only way CUSA gets a team in serious consideration is for multiple teams -- at least 2, preferably 3 -- to blow through their nonconference schedules as well.

Undefeated against G6s. Solid games against P4s.

The other CUSA "contenders" don't actually have to go undefeated against G6 programs to help the cause. But they DO need to look exceptionally good in any losses.

I still say the main contender has to be undefeated against all levels of G6. Anything less than that, and they'll be counting on a 2-loss PAC and AAC champ.

The odds are stacked against us, but it could happen during any given season. Just not this year.

The only way Liberty makes it is if they win out, and the 4 or 5 teams ranked above them all lose another game or two.

Liberty also really needs Coastal Carolina to beat JMU (which is JMU's last game of the season & a home game for JMU)

JMU just keeps hurting Liberty’s strength of schedule. C’mon guys, thought we could trust you.

(10-30-2026 05:41 AM)Baldspot Wrote:  JMU just keeps hurting Liberty’s strength of schedule. C’mon guys, thought we could trust you.

You weren’t going to pass Dolley Madison in the rankings anyway so it is a double edged sword. At least now you have a better record and can hope the others lose. At least until your loss in the CUSACG.

(10-30-2026 05:56 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  

(10-30-2026 05:41 AM)Baldspot Wrote:  JMU just keeps hurting Liberty’s strength of schedule. C’mon guys, thought we could trust you.

You weren’t going to pass Dolley Madison in the rankings anyway so it is a double edged sword. At least now you have a better record and can hope the others lose. At least until your loss in the CUSACG.

Agreed, my tongue-in-cheek moment. Sun Belt fans having a heyday today as well.

Didn't Troy State just lose to ULM ?

Wow.............