Quote:Not having already consolidated into 16-18 team conferneces could end up being the mistake. The MAC could have absorbed CUSA and the PAC reverse merged with MWC.
My thoughts: As fans I see that as a good thing in regards to a playoff. But otherwise, I don't -- but I DO see the CUSA being dissolved and some/much (but not all) of their teams joining the MAC in hind sight now being a good thing, having less FCS-to-FBS folks moving in. North Dakota State is a Legit FBS team out of the box though as a good G6, them being the 'Ohio State' of FCS. And Illinois State, if ending up joining the MAC and ensuring investment in their athletic programs would be a good/solid entry -- but other than that really, almost all FCS-to-FBS is not good.
And also, there's no way the P12 would take in all of the Mountain West teams (same as Oregon St & Wash St just joining MW). It'd be good from a fan POV, but wouldn't want be happened by P12 then or now. :)
But with an unnecessarily large 24 team playoff, sole conference champs should be set as auto-bids, under reasonable conditions -- that they'd have some votes for an AP/Coaches-AFCA poll, so they're not illegitimate as far as rankings -- ie #25-35. Having a 6th team from the same P4 conference get into said playoffs over a Sole G6 Conference Champ whose ranked a notch below, should be avoided.
Having a Sole conference champ who has X amount of wins (not counting more than 1 FCS opponent), and is in the Top 35, would be Very reasonable and should be desired IMO to bring in to not a 16 but a 24 team playoff. That doesn't mean all conference champs in, but being a Sole conference champ with a good enough record (X) and on the level to get legit votes for the Top 25 -- should be in said 24 team playoff. IMO, a typical year would be all 4 P4 Conference champs in, 3 G6 conference champs in, and once in a great while a 2nd team from the same G6 conference who didn't win but was still ranked above #24.
Heeding it being on-average, say, 3.5 G6 teams in, and making it average about 2.25 instead sounds like being picky at first. But it's basically ensuring many years consistently that there'll be a G6 conference champ (and sometimes two) with a legit gripe talked about after regular season.
But at the same time, I think it's very popular among many with say & power in FBS football that wants/desires the concept of G6 to be as far back as possible and in another division instead. Hence, not even a Conditional conference-champion rule for auto-bids to even a Very large playoff. :)
Here's a breakdown since 2018 (skipping 2020) of rankings for non-power conference teams, from the 2 non-official polls as they show all votes (5 or more), and an asterisk meaning [sole] winner of their Conf. And of their records, before the bowls (laid out by an AI upon request), and how many G6s champs I'd count going into 24 team playoff rules I'd like.
2018 (3)
AP: #7 UCF [AAC]* (12-0), #19 Fresno State [MW]* (11-2), #22 Army [IND] (9-2), #23 Boise State [MW] (10-3), #27 Utah State [MW] (10-2), #29 Cincinnati [AAC] (10-2), #31 Appalachian State [SBelt]* (10-2)
AFCA: #7 UCF [AAC]* (12-0), #21 Fresno State [MW]* (11-2), #23 Utah State [MW] (10-2), #24 Boise State [MW] (10-3), #25 Army [IND] (9-2), #28 Cincinnati [AAC] (10-2), #30 Appalachian State [SBelt]* (10-2)
OFFICIAL RANK/POLL: #8 UCF [AAC]*, #21 Fresno State [MW]*, #25 Boise State [MW]
2019 (4)
AP: #15 Memphis [AAC]* (12-1), #18 Boise State [MW]* (12-1), #20 Appalachian State [SBelt]* (12-1), #21 Navy [AAC] (9-2), #23 Cincinnati [AAC] (10-3), #24 Air Force [MW] (10-2), #26 SMU [AAC] (10-2), #29 Florida Atlantic [CUSA]* (10-3), #31 UCF [AAC] (9-3)
AFCA: #15 Memphis [AAC]* (12-1), #18 Boise State [MW]* (12-1), #20 Appalachian State [SBelt]* (12-1), #21 Navy [AAC] (9-2), #22 Cincinnati [AAC] (10-3), #24 Air Force [MW] (10-2), #27 SMU [AAC] (10-2), #30 Florida Atlantic [CUSA]* (10-3), #31 UCF [AAC] (9-3), #32 Louisiana [SBelt] (10-3), #33 San Diego State [MW] (9-3)
OFFICIAL RANK/POLL: #17 Memphis [AAC]*, #19 Boise State [MW]*, #20 Appalachian State [SBelt]*, #21 Cincinnati [AAC], #23 Navy [AAC]
2021 (4)
AP: #4 Cincinnati [AAC]* (13-0), #12 BYU [IND] (10-2), #16 Louisiana [SBelt]* (12-1), #21 Houston [AAC] (11-2), #24 UTSA [CUSA]* (12-1), #26 Utah State [MW]* (10-3), #28 San Diego State [MW] (11-2), #31 Louisiana Tech [CUSA] (7-5), #32 Appalachian State [SBelt] (10-3), #33 Army [IND] (8-3)
AFCA: #4 Cincinnati [AAC]* (13-0), #14 BYU [IND] (10-2), #17 Louisiana [SBelt]* (12-1), #21 Houston [AAC] (11-2), #25 UTSA [CUSA]* (12-1), #27 Utah State [MW]* (10-3), #28 San Diego State [MW] (11-2), #30 Air Force [MW] (9-3), #32 Fresno State [MW]
OFFICIAL RANK/POLL: #4 Cincinnati [AAC]* (13-0), #13 BYU [IND] (10-2), #20 Houston [AAC] (11-2), #23 Louisiana [SBelt]* (12-1), #24 San Diego State [MW] (11-2)
2022 (4)
AP: #14 Tulane [AAC]* (11-2), #22 UTSA [CUSA]* (11-2), #23 Troy [SBelt]* (11-2), #27 UCF [AAC] (9-4), #28 Cincinnati [AAC] (9-3), #30 Fresno State [MW]* (9-4), #32 South Alabama [SBelt] (10-2), #34 Boise State [MW] (9-4)
AFCA: #17 Tulane [AAC]* (11-2), #22 UTSA [CUSA]* (11-2), #24 Troy [SBelt]* (11-2), #28 UCF [AAC] (9-4), #29 Fresno State [MW]* (9-4), #31 Air Force [MW] (9-3), #32 South Alabama [SBelt] (10-2), #34 Cincinnati [AAC] (9-3), #37 Coastal Carolina [SBelt] (9-3)
OFFICIAL RANK/POLL: #16 Tulane [AAC]* (11-2), #24 Troy [SBelt]* (11-2), and #25 UTSA [CUSA]* (11-2)
2023 (4)
AP: #17 SMU [AAC]* (11-2), #18 Liberty [CUSA]* (13-0), #23 Tulane [AAC] (11-2), #24 James Madison [SBelt]* (11-1), #27 Troy [SBelt] (11-2), #30 Miami (Ohio) [MAC]* (11-2)
AFCA: #19 SMU [AAC]* (11-2), #20 Liberty [CUSA]* (13-0), #24 Tulane [AAC] (11-2), #25 James Madison [SBelt]* (11-1), #27 Troy [SBelt] (11-2), #31 Miami (Ohio) [MAC]* (11-2), #32 Toledo [MAC] (11-2), and #33 Boise State [MW] (8-5)
OFFICIAL RANK/POLL: #23 Liberty [CUSA]* (13-0), #24 SMU [AAC]* (11-2)
2024 (3-4)
AP: #8 Boise State [MW]* (12-1), #19 Army [AAC]* (11-1), #24 UNLV [MW] (10-3), #25 Memphis [AAC] (10-2), #29 Marshall [SBelt]* (10-3)
AFCA: #8 Boise State [MW]* (12-1), #18 Army [AAC]* (11-1), #23 Memphis [AAC] (10-2), #24 UNLV [MW] (10-3), #29 Marshall [SBelt]* (10-3), #31 Ohio [MAC]* (10-3)
OFFICIAL RANK/POLL: #9 Boise State [MW]* (12-1), #22 Army [AAC]* (11-1), #24 UNLV [MW] (10-3), #25 Memphis [AAC] (10-2)
2025 (3)
AP: #17 Tulane [AAC]* (11-2), #19 James Madison [SBelt]* (12-1), #22 Navy [AAC] (9-2), #23 North Texas [AAC] (11-2), #26 Houston [AAC] (9-3), #31 Boise State [MW]* (9-4), #32 UNLV [MW] (10-3), #33 South Florida [AAC] (9-3)
AFCA: #18 Tulane [AAC]* (11-2), #19 James Madison [SBelt]* (12-1), #25 Navy [AAC] (9-2), #27 North Texas [AAC] (11-2), #33 Boise State [MW]* (9-4)
OFFICIAL RANK/POLL: #20 Tulane [AAC]* (11-2), #24 James Madison [SBelt]* (12-1), #25 North Texas [AAC] (11-2)