Today’s setback to the Pirates made many Rice fans Irate. We’re 1-5 again, fercrissakes!

Fret not, this is the 20th anniversary season of the last* time we started 1-5. We then proceeded to go on a six game win streak to earn our first bowl berth ever** and went on to become the juggernaut we are today!

Back then (a simpler time) we NEEDED all six wins to qualify. Anything less and we’d be staying home.

These days, with the APR rules, we really only need to finish 4-2 (5-7 overall) and sneak in the back door via APR qualification.

We’ll keep track on this thread as long as we have a path to bowl eligibility, whether the old fashioned way, or by the APR route.

First, the real old fashioned way: the winner of the SWC used to earn a Cotton Bowl berth (as long as the league didn’t f up the tiebreaker). Unfortunately the SWC no longer exists and even if it did, there is no longer a tie-in with the Cotton Bowl.

Another old fashioned way: win the last 6 to finish 7-5. That would clinch a bowl berth for the Owls, thus Rice still controls its own destiny!

6-6 would also be likely to qualify Rice. I think the American has enough tie-ins that even if there were say more 6-win teams than berths available, that Rice would still make the cut. American >> all the other G6 leagues ((especially if you’re asking ESPN who controls the bowl selection process)). They’ve also been known to create new bowls out of thin air last minute if it looks like a 6-win team might be left out. Still, it’s not a rock solid lock.

5-7 is sketchy. Even though we’ve been here before. But we’re a little further down the APR list than normal this year. And…. Some early projections have suggested that there will be fewer APR bids this year than usual. Still, at #44 that could put us top three among 5-win teams when it comes time for bowl bids. And even I don’t expect another 6-0 regular season finish flourish. 4-2 sure. Maybe even 5-1. 6-0 would be a bit of a stretch.

Only two AMERICAN teams are ahead of us, and they both played each other today. Army(3-2) beat Tulane (2-3) 20-17, and those do look like a couple of teams who could wind up in the 5-7/6-6 convo. I like to root for conference mates, but I sure hope they don’t “steal” our spot. We also finish with those two (sandwiching 2-4 Temple) so we’ll have our opportunity to hand each of those mates another L if we can solve some of our own issues…

33. Army 984
38. Tulane 983

T44 Rice
Latest APR (2024-2025): 981
Last Year’s APR Ranking: 19
APR (2023-2024): 988

Source:
https://collegefootballnews.com/college-...e-football
(A site with lots of ads)
—————-
Footnotes:
*It’s not really the last time we started 1-5. Silly, we do that all the time!
2018 (2-10)
2017 (1-11)
2012 (7-6, Armed Forces Bowl Champs)
2010 (4-8, Bayou Bucket Champs)
2007 (3-9, beat defndng champ USM & Mayors Cup)
2006 (7-6, western division runner up, New Orl Bowl)
2003 (5-7, won 4 of our last five games by an average score of 47-22)
2000 (3-8, Bayou Bucket and Mayors Cup champs)
1983-4 (1-10, my sophomore and junior years)
Six of the last 8 times we’ve started 1-5, something good has come out of the season.


**not really “ever”, just ever in my lifetime. And I’m kind of old.

Jesus. Thank God that we won't be in the running for one. It would be another disaster. Texas State would beat us 55-14.

(10-10-2026 06:45 PM)Ourland Wrote:  Jesus. Thank God that we won't be in the running for one. It would be another disaster. Texas State would beat us 55-14.

Oh no we don’t want that matchup again.

Gimme Louisiana Tech or San Diego State or heck UNLV or Wyoming.

Even the Texas Aggies, now there you’d have something!

(10-10-2026 08:05 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(10-10-2026 06:45 PM)Ourland Wrote:  Jesus. Thank God that we won't be in the running for one. It would be another disaster. Texas State would beat us 55-14.

Oh no we don’t want that matchup again.

Gimme Louisiana Tech or San Diego State or heck UNLV or Wyoming.

Even the Texas Aggies, now there you’d have something!

Aggies!!!!!

Any Sunday morning in which Rice fans are less unhappy than Longhorn fans isn't a total loss.

(10-11-2026 11:08 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Any Sunday morning in which Rice fans are less unhappy than Longhorn fans isn't a total loss.

+1

(10-11-2026 12:58 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 11:08 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Any Sunday morning in which Rice fans are less unhappy than Longhorn fans isn't a total loss.

+1

Tulsa is perhaps our easiest game remaining when you combine the opponent and home venue. If we lose on Saturday, I expect we will be closer to 1-11 than 5-7 or 6-6.

(10-13-2026 12:03 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 12:58 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 11:08 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Any Sunday morning in which Rice fans are less unhappy than Longhorn fans isn't a total loss.

+1

Tulsa is perhaps our easiest game remaining when you combine the opponent and home venue. If we lose on Saturday, I expect we will be closer to 1-11 than 5-7 or 6-6.

The only strong point of the offense right now is Jacurri's running and Tulsa just allowed the Navy QB to rush for 232 yards on 41 carries with only 7 pass attempts.

On paper this game is built for our offense to explode. If we can't even win this one we're almost definitely going 1-11.

(10-13-2026 12:19 PM)TheOwl84 Wrote:  

(10-13-2026 12:03 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 12:58 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 11:08 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Any Sunday morning in which Rice fans are less unhappy than Longhorn fans isn't a total loss.

+1

Tulsa is perhaps our easiest game remaining when you combine the opponent and home venue. If we lose on Saturday, I expect we will be closer to 1-11 than 5-7 or 6-6.

The only strong point of the offense right now is Jacurri's running and Tulsa just allowed the Navy QB to rush for 232 yards on 41 carries with only 7 pass attempts.

On paper this game is built for our offense to explode. If we can't even win this one we're almost definitely going 1-11.

"Only" 7 pass attempts? That's a big night by Rice standards

On a serious note, we HAVE to get Ochoa in there, if nothing else then at least for a few series to see what he can do and, hopefully, give the D more things to worry about

(10-13-2026 12:19 PM)TheOwl84 Wrote:  

(10-13-2026 12:03 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 12:58 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 11:08 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Any Sunday morning in which Rice fans are less unhappy than Longhorn fans isn't a total loss.

+1

Tulsa is perhaps our easiest game remaining when you combine the opponent and home venue. If we lose on Saturday, I expect we will be closer to 1-11 than 5-7 or 6-6.

The only strong point of the offense right now is Jacurri's running and Tulsa just allowed the Navy QB to rush for 232 yards on 41 carries with only 7 pass attempts.

On paper this game is built for our offense to explode. If we can't even win this one we're almost definitely going 1-11.

On the flip side, Tulsa will be better prepared for the option.

Ok kids, we’re 1-6.

This is like Yahtzee, where we already have our “chance” and 1s and 2s and all we need is our Yahtzee and Long Straight and all the other hard things.

Speaking of “chance”, what ARE the chances?

This method underestimates the actual chances (as each successive win would, in theory positively impact odds on future games). But just to illustrate that our chances at 6-6 are TANGIBLE… we consult the ESPN FPI for our last five games.

And what do we have?

26.8 * 9.1 * 18.3 * 23.9 * 19.2 =2.04/100 of 1 percent

Or almost exactly 1 in 5000

So our best path to the bowl berth again will likely be that APR back door

It’s not all bad news.

You might have noticed most of our remaining games (except at UNT) give us a 1/4 or 1/5 chance to win.

That means there’s only a 33.4% chance we lose them all. More optimistically speaking, a 66.6% chance (2/3) that we WIN at least one more!

So let’s hear it for 2-10, or if we’re lucky, 3-9.

Or if things go just right… 6-7!

(10-18-2026 06:00 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Ok kids, we’re 1-6.

This is like Yahtzee, where we already have our “chance” and 1s and 2s and all we need is our Yahtzee and Long Straight and all the other hard things.

Speaking of “chance”, what ARE the chances?

This method underestimates the actual chances (as each successive win would, in theory positively impact odds on future games). But just to illustrate that our chances at 6-6 are TANGIBLE… we consult the ESPN FPI for our last five games.

And what do we have?

26.8 * 9.1 * 18.3 * 23.9 * 19.2 =2.04/100 of 1 percent

Or almost exactly 1 in 5000

So our best path to the bowl berth again will likely be that APR back door

It’s not all bad news.

You might have noticed most of our remaining games (except at UNT) give us a 1/4 or 1/5 chance to win.

That means there’s only a 33.4% chance we lose them all. More optimistically speaking, a 66.6% chance (2/3) that we WIN at least one more!

So let’s hear it for 2-10, or if we’re lucky, 3-9.

Or if things go just right… 6-7!

Way too much free time.

Please no more APR bowls, especially vs. Texas State.

(10-18-2026 06:08 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 06:00 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Ok kids, we’re 1-6.

This is like Yahtzee, where we already have our “chance” and 1s and 2s and all we need is our Yahtzee and Long Straight and all the other hard things.

Speaking of “chance”, what ARE the chances?

This method underestimates the actual chances (as each successive win would, in theory positively impact odds on future games). But just to illustrate that our chances at 6-6 are TANGIBLE… we consult the ESPN FPI for our last five games.

And what do we have?

26.8 * 9.1 * 18.3 * 23.9 * 19.2 =2.04/100 of 1 percent

Or almost exactly 1 in 5000

So our best path to the bowl berth again will likely be that APR back door

It’s not all bad news.

You might have noticed most of our remaining games (except at UNT) give us a 1/4 or 1/5 chance to win.

That means there’s only a 33.4% chance we lose them all. More optimistically speaking, a 66.6% chance (2/3) that we WIN at least one more!

So let’s hear it for 2-10, or if we’re lucky, 3-9.

Or if things go just right… 6-7!

Way too much free time.

Please no more APR bowls, especially vs. Texas State.

It’s a Sunday, and my NFL team played Thursday night.

But yeah I have been kind of putting off cleaning out the closet, ttyl.

Rice Owls are the best 1-7 team in the country, and, probably the best 1-7 team in the history of The AMERICAN CONFERENCE.

We almost beat fAU today, a team that was in the CFP convo. Same for UTsA, Tulsa, and ECU.

It’s not a moral victory. It’s an immoral victory. And I won’t settle for it.

But we are still coming for that 5-7 APR bowl berth!!!


We’re not dead yet!!!


(I’ll run the FPI numbers to get the actual odds tomorrow (of finishing 5-7, not calculating the odds of getting an actual berth in that situation just yet, but offhand I’d say the chance that a #44 APR team gets a bowl bid this year at 5-7 is about 5:1) )

But the back-of-the-napkin puts the combined odds of that scenario right back at 5000:1 (same as chances at 6-6 were last week)

Bye week failed to add to our loss total, and your Rice Owls are still alive for a shot at an APR bowl…

Better the run the numbers once more while we still have a shot.

With Tulane’s collapse earlier today, by Gametime vs UNT Rice’s chances of winning the last 4 games had improved to 459:1 (per ESPN FPI)

With the in-game chances improving for Rice from 10.2% to now 13.5% at halftime, the overall chances to make 5-7 have improved to 347:1

Here comes Rice!

(We currently show a 30% chance of winning next week against Tulane)

287:1 as Rice pulls within 3 again then forces a UNT punt! (16.3% today or 6:1)

Sounds like APR bowls are about to be a thing of the past. E$PN will control which 5-7 teams go bowling if this is right.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ncaa-f...tHmoTv-KCy

(Today 07:03 PM)markbrindley Wrote:  Sounds like APR bowls are about to be a thing of the past. E$PN will control which 5-7 teams go bowling if this is right.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ncaa-f...tHmoTv-KCy

Wow, great (sarcastically). Let’s toss one of the few things left that rewards the academic side of college athletics.

I mean, it makes sense, those bowls are as much made-for-tv affairs as much as anything else.

On the upside, if it is a conference tie-in bowl, the individual conference could still choose to use APR as a criterion. But this would put a 5-7 P4 team ahead of a Rice, if the bowl has a P4 tie-in.

(Today 06:29 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  287:1 as Rice pulls within 3 again then forces a UNT punt! (16.3% today or 6:1)

And that was as good as it got all afternoon.

Quite a little mini-run for the millinium’s all-time best 1-8 football team ™.