(07-25-2024 10:46 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  I’ve said before green, going back for years, I enjoy your posts and contributions here. You really seem to have your finger on the pulse of things. I can remember you saying Trump would win in 2016 and showing how he should have won except for the shenanigans in 2020. Keep fighting the good fight brother

https://csnbbs.com/thread-999413-post-19...id19823397

disclaimer: I have not studied situation ...
forecast simply based on intuition ...
some may say wishcast ...
fair enough ...
if I'm wrong ...
you'll tell me ...

GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN

(10-04-2026 08:07 AM)green Wrote:  

(07-25-2024 10:46 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  I’ve said before green, going back for years, I enjoy your posts and contributions here. You really seem to have your finger on the pulse of things. I can remember you saying Trump would win in 2016 and showing how he should have won except for the shenanigans in 2020. Keep fighting the good fight brother

https://csnbbs.com/thread-999413-post-19...id19823397

disclaimer: I have not studied situation ...
forecast simply based on intuition ...
some may say wishcast ...
fair enough ...
if I'm wrong ...
you'll tell me ...

GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN

I'm going 52-48 in favor of Republicans.

North Carolina is the only state to flip for the Dems.

Paxton barely gets over the line in TX, but it’s a shame we have such a weak candidate there. Would’ve freed up a lot of $$$$ to spend on other races.

But whether Paxton wins or loses, I am thankful that Cornyn is done. His sulking and passive-aggressive opposition to the GOP since he lost the run-off is proof that we are better off without him. And any of his people who try to run in the future will have to account for him and reject him — or else they will lose, too.

(10-04-2026 08:38 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Paxton barely gets over the line in TX, but it’s a shame we have such a weak candidate there. Would’ve freed up a lot of $$$$ to spend on other races.

But whether Paxton wins or loses, I am thankful that Cornyn is done. His sulking and passive-aggressive opposition to the GOP since he lost the run-off is proof that we are better off without him. And any of his people who try to run in the future will have to account for him and reject him — or else they will lose, too.

He went full John McCain.

(10-04-2026 09:02 AM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(10-04-2026 08:38 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  I am thankful that Cornyn is done. His sulking and passive-aggressive opposition to the GOP since he lost the run-off is proof that we are better off without him.

He went full John McCain.

He really did, yes. And at least McCain had the excuse of representing a toss-up state by the time he was finished. Cornyn is just bitter because he lost. If he were running against Talarico right now, he would be singing a different tune. Good riddance!

(10-04-2026 08:38 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Paxton barely gets over the line in TX, but it’s a shame we have such a weak candidate there. Would’ve freed up a lot of $$$$ to spend on other races.

But whether Paxton wins or loses, I am thankful that Cornyn is done. His sulking and passive-aggressive opposition to the GOP since he lost the run-off is proof that we are better off without him. And any of his people who try to run in the future will have to account for him and reject him — or else they will lose, too.

Wesley Hunt would've been a much better candidate for our side, personally.

(10-04-2026 08:07 AM)green Wrote:  

(07-25-2024 10:46 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  I’ve said before green, going back for years, I enjoy your posts and contributions here. You really seem to have your finger on the pulse of things. I can remember you saying Trump would win in 2016 and showing how he should have won except for the shenanigans in 2020. Keep fighting the good fight brother

https://csnbbs.com/thread-999413-post-19...id19823397

disclaimer: I have not studied situation ...
forecast simply based on intuition ...
some may say wishcast ...
fair enough ...
if I'm wrong ...
you'll tell me ...

GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/se...polymarket

presently ...
polymarket priced odds: D +5
hard to see ...
nh listed in toss-up category ...

SET THE STAGE

If it's D+5 the real map is closer to R+1

Since I frequent 270towin.com, here's my prediction, based off of my interactions there:

220-215 in favor of the Democrats for the House

52-48 in favor of the Republicans for the Senate

(10-04-2026 08:38 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Paxton barely gets over the line in TX, but it’s a shame we have such a weak candidate there. Would’ve freed up a lot of $$$$ to spend on other races.

But whether Paxton wins or loses, I am thankful that Cornyn is done. His sulking and passive-aggressive opposition to the GOP since he lost the run-off is proof that we are better off without him. And any of his people who try to run in the future will have to account for him and reject him — or else they will lose, too.

If any of those disenfranchised Cornyn associates are brave enough to say they voted Talarico then I presume they realize they are done politically.

Regardless of Paxton and there definitely is some baggage there he pales in comparison to utter destruction Dems want to shove down our throats with higher taxation and a renewed effort to restore all the malignancy that was exposed.

(10-05-2026 04:37 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  If it's D+5 the real map is closer to R+1

THEIRS

(10-04-2026 08:07 AM)green Wrote:  

(07-25-2024 10:46 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  I’ve said before green, going back for years, I enjoy your posts and contributions here. You really seem to have your finger on the pulse of things. I can remember you saying Trump would win in 2016 and showing how he should have won except for the shenanigans in 2020. Keep fighting the good fight brother

https://csnbbs.com/thread-999413-post-19...id19823397

disclaimer: I have not studied situation ...
forecast simply based on intuition ...
some may say wishcast ...
fair enough ...
if I'm wrong ...
you'll tell me ...

GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN

Minnesota always feels like fools gold

I could see Michigan narrowly going GOP with the Dem candidate that won that primary

Collins will eek out another one in Maine - Bobsy twins forever!!

Alaska feels like a wild card and GA feels like a disappointment but Ossoff seems to have captured that golden perception of "Dem moderate"

Expect Cooper to emulate Ossoff once he gets into the Senate because Whatley was simply not a good candidate

2028 is going to be a massive election in NC
President
Ted Budd Senate Seat
Congress
Governor/AG and all other NC executive offices
The NC Legislature
Control of the NC Supreme Court

(10-05-2026 04:37 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  If it's D+5 the real map is closer to R+1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0q2C_1-DRc

one day after mine ...
lichtman predicts ...
democrats minimally 52 seats possibly even more ...
btw, he got it famously wrong last election ..
I got it right ...
we shall see ...
hater gonna hate ...

CLOUD JUDGEMENT

https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-ele...aNp7D0.png

for some CrAzY reason ...
I can't see my map ...
so, I'll detail it ...
MN R
MI R
ME R
OH R
IA R
TX R
AK R
NC D
GA D
NH TOSS-UP
54 R 45 D

FOR POSTERITY'S SAKE

(10-07-2026 06:31 AM)green Wrote:  

(10-05-2026 04:37 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  If it's D+5 the real map is closer to R+1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0q2C_1-DRc

one day after mine ...
lichtman predicts ...
democrats minimally 52 seats possibly even more ...
btw, he got it famously wrong last election ..
I got it right ...
we shall see ...
hater gonna hate ...

CLOUD JUDGEMENT

This overeducated moron is going to be highly disappointed again in a few weeks.

LMFAO, this idiot has Texas, Ohio and Alaska going D.

(10-07-2026 09:35 AM)b2b Wrote:  LMFAO, this idiot has Texas, Ohio and Alaska going D.

not dumb ...
just afflicted w/ tds ...
professor lichtman bases doomsday forecast on sparse public polling ...
and gut feeling ...
the same people ...
who told me month after month kamala would win ...
terrible track record ...
never held accountable ...
maybe they're right ...

EVEN A BLIND SQUIRREL FINDS A NUT

(10-07-2026 09:35 AM)b2b Wrote:  LMFAO, this idiot has Texas, Ohio and Alaska going D.

He's not an idiot.

He's a moron, and an overeducated one at that.

Add 5pts to the Republicans to every poll. That's what they have been off during the last national elections for the past 10 years.

The Michigan ads Roger's is running that use actual clips of Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed speaking about defunding the police and all sorts of other stupid leftist tripe are brutally effective.