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College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
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joeben69 Offline
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Post: #1
College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
https://herosports.com/fbs-college-footb...gets-cpcp/

Full Member
NMSU
- Not the best add but membership reinforcement against more PAC defections
- Will have to be over UNM objection
- Fits in MWC geographic footprint

UCD
- Top FCS BSC program
- NorCAL replacement for Fresno St./San Diego St.
- Fits in MWC geographic footprint

Sac. St.
- Not the best add but membership reinforcement against more PAC defections
- NorCAL replacement for Fresno St./San Diego St.
- Fits in MWC geographic footprint

FB-Only
SDST
- Top FCS MVFC program
- May not be able to afford full MWC membership

Montana
- Top FCS BSC program
- Fits in MWC geographic footprint
- May not be able to afford full MWC membership

Montana St.
- Top FCS BSC program
- Fits in MWC geographic footprint
- May not be able to afford full MWC membership
(This post was last modified: 07-20-2026 11:40 PM by joeben69.)
07-20-2026 11:28 PM
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TardisCaptain Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
Would the Montana schools accept a FB only invite? They are in the footprint for other sporst.
07-21-2026 12:20 PM
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epasnoopy Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
(07-21-2026 12:20 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  Would the Montana schools accept a FB only invite? They are in the footprint for other sporst.

Also, do they have $23 million to pay the MWC for a football-only invite?

MWC Commissioner said at media days they aren't actively looking for more members right now because the media $ isn't there and they don't want to split the same pie more ways. So would a Montana school forgo media $, pay $18 million to join (like Sac St), and pay the $5 million NCAA FBS reclassification fee?

Sac St basically set the new market rate to get a G6 invite after NDSU set it right before them.
07-21-2026 03:36 PM
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EP Bison Fan Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
(07-21-2026 03:36 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 12:20 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  Would the Montana schools accept a FB only invite? They are in the footprint for other sporst.

Also, do they have $23 million to pay the MWC for a football-only invite?

MWC Commissioner said at media days they aren't actively looking for more members right now because the media $ isn't there and they don't want to split the same pie more ways. So would a Montana school forgo media $, pay $18 million to join (like Sac St), and pay the $5 million NCAA FBS reclassification fee?

Sac St basically set the new market rate to get a G6 invite after NDSU set it right before them.

Being a former MAC school fan, do you think Gloria could flip Toledo, Ohio, or Miami as possible football-only adds? The blueprint is kind of there with your deal. Those three probably wouldn't make UNLV too angry.
07-21-2026 04:17 PM
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Big Redd Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
(07-21-2026 04:17 PM)EP Bison Fan Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 03:36 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 12:20 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  Would the Montana schools accept a FB only invite? They are in the footprint for other sporst.

Also, do they have $23 million to pay the MWC for a football-only invite?

MWC Commissioner said at media days they aren't actively looking for more members right now because the media $ isn't there and they don't want to split the same pie more ways. So would a Montana school forgo media $, pay $18 million to join (like Sac St), and pay the $5 million NCAA FBS reclassification fee?

Sac St basically set the new market rate to get a G6 invite after NDSU set it right before them.

Being a former MAC school fan, do you think Gloria could flip Toledo, Ohio, or Miami as possible football-only adds? The blueprint is kind of there with your deal. Those three probably wouldn't make UNLV too angry.
Long term (post 2031) yes, in fact I’d put the odds pretty high they go conference shopping by then. Also assumes NIU revenue model works out and the next media deal for the MAC is crap.

Anytime before that no, due to the likelihood they will be locked into a GOR with a pricey buyout with their upcoming media deal.
07-21-2026 06:31 PM
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epasnoopy Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Expansion Tar
(07-21-2026 04:17 PM)EP Bison Fan Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 03:36 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 12:20 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  Would the Montana schools accept a FB only invite? They are in the footprint for other sporst.

Also, do they have $23 million to pay the MWC for a football-only invite?

MWC Commissioner said at media days they aren't actively looking for more members right now because the media $ isn't there and they don't want to split the same pie more ways. So would a Montana school forgo media $, pay $18 million to join (like Sac St), and pay the $5 million NCAA FBS reclassification fee?

Sac St basically set the new market rate to get a G6 invite after NDSU set it right before them.

Being a former MAC school fan, do you think Gloria could flip Toledo, Ohio, or Miami as possible football-only adds? The blueprint is kind of there with your deal. Those three probably wouldn't make UNLV too angry.

IMO, I think the odds are not good for any other MAC school to leave. The MAC is basically an Ohio-centric conference (with three Michigan schools). Toledo is literally within a 3.5 hr drive of 9 MAC schools for all sports.

For NIU, it was easier for us. We were only within 3.5 hrs of one MAC school (WMU). So NIU was already used to having to bus further distances for all sports or fly. We had to fly to Ohio, Buffalo, UMass (once they joined), Temple (before they left), and Sac St (if we stayed).

Horizon League is actually better for our Olympic sports because we are closer to the center of the Horizon footprint. In the MAC, we were always on the western edge with no one else close to us. Because of that, we also had no real rivarlies in the MAC.

I think the only other current MAC schools who would actually leave are Buffalo and UMass. UMass already left once before but then came back after their football program floundered in independence purgatory (not that their football has ever been good in FBS). Buffalo would probably only leave for an American or ACC invite (but they'll probably never get either unless large scale realignment shifts happen again).

Also, I don't think any of the other MAC schools hated Tuesday and Wednesday games like NIU hated them. Our players said in multiple MWC media day interviews they did not like the midweek games, previous NIU football head coaches told me in person the same thing (even though publicly they said they liked them), and our fanbase absolutely came to despise them. They were a fun novelty for the first 3-4 years but after 20 years of them it got old.

Finally, I don't think any Ohio MAC school would actually think about leaving until Toledo did. If Toledo did, I think that would motivate Ohio and Miami-Ohio to consider also leaving.
07-21-2026 07:17 PM
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EP Bison Fan Offline
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Post: #7
College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
(07-21-2026 07:17 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 04:17 PM)EP Bison Fan Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 03:36 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 12:20 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  Would the Montana schools accept a FB only invite? They are in the footprint for other sporst.

Also, do they have $23 million to pay the MWC for a football-only invite?

MWC Commissioner said at media days they aren't actively looking for more members right now because the media $ isn't there and they don't want to split the same pie more ways. So would a Montana school forgo media $, pay $18 million to join (like Sac St), and pay the $5 million NCAA FBS reclassification fee?

Sac St basically set the new market rate to get a G6 invite after NDSU set it right before them.

Being a former MAC school fan, do you think Gloria could flip Toledo, Ohio, or Miami as possible football-only adds? The blueprint is kind of there with your deal. Those three probably wouldn't make UNLV too angry.

IMO, I think the odds are not good for any other MAC school to leave. The MAC is basically an Ohio-centric conference (with three Michigan schools). Toledo is literally within a 3.5 hr drive of 9 MAC schools for all sports.

For NIU, it was easier for us. We were only within 3.5 hrs of one MAC school (WMU). So NIU was already used to having to bus further distances for all sports or fly. We had to fly to Ohio, Buffalo, UMass (once they joined), Temple (before they left), and Sac St (if we stayed).

Horizon League is actually better for our Olympic sports because we are closer to the center of the Horizon footprint. In the MAC, we were always on the western edge with no one else close to us. Because of that, we also had no real rivarlies in the MAC.

I think the only other current MAC schools who would actually leave are Buffalo and UMass. UMass already left once before but then came back after their football program floundered in independence purgatory (not that their football has ever been good in FBS). Buffalo would probably only leave for an American or ACC invite (but they'll probably never get either unless large scale realignment shifts happen again).

Also, I don't think any of the other MAC schools hated Tuesday and Wednesday games like NIU hated them. Our players said in multiple MWC media day interviews they did not like the midweek games, previous NIU football head coaches told me in person the same thing (even though publicly they said they liked them), and our fanbase absolutely came to despise them. They were a fun novelty for the first 3-4 years but after 20 years of them it got old.

Finally, I don't think any Ohio MAC school would actually think about leaving until Toledo did. If Toledo did, I think that would motivate Ohio and Miami-Ohio to consider also leaving.


Nice information, thank you! I would have thought Miami and Ohio would have liked the academic position better in the MWC too. Those two always seemed to be the most, “we are better than you” schools from the OG MAC schools. I never thought they would look at the Sun Belt for that reason alone.


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07-21-2026 08:23 PM
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7 Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
UC Davis is going to get added for football at some point. They start receiving a full share of the media money by like 2031. It's just a matter of when, not if.
07-21-2026 11:21 PM
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
(07-21-2026 11:21 PM)7 Wrote:  UC Davis is going to get added for football at some point. They start receiving a full share of the media money by like 2031. It's just a matter of when, not if.

100% agree, perfect fit in theory too. Great academics, huge enrollment, new large market. From all the press releases, it sure looks like the Toomey Field reno will be done by the next grant of rights. Groundbreaking in 3-5 years with a year or two for completion would fit the timeline perfectly.
07-22-2026 08:31 AM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
The problem with poaching most MAC schools is they save a lot of money by being a bus league, so the payouts from the MWC for football have to really be worth their while. For the Olympic sports, some of them like Toledo probably wouldn't be happy moving to the Horizon which might be a half-step down and more travel than they're used to. (For NIU, travel is actually easier in the Horizon.) But if they could get a decent Olympics upgrade like the A10 or MVC it would be more attractive. NIU's basketball wasn't good enough to get those leagues to sniff but Toledo's might be.
(This post was last modified: 07-22-2026 11:09 AM by Max Power.)
07-22-2026 11:08 AM
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epasnoopy Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
(07-22-2026 11:08 AM)Max Power Wrote:  The problem with poaching most MAC schools is they save a lot of money by being a bus league, so the payouts from the MWC for football have to really be worth their while. For the Olympic sports, some of them like Toledo probably wouldn't be happy moving to the Horizon which might be a half-step down and more travel than they're used to. (For NIU, travel is actually easier in the Horizon.) But if they could get a decent Olympics upgrade like the A10 or MVC it would be more attractive. NIU's basketball wasn't good enough to get those leagues to sniff but Toledo's might be.

Even A10 and MVC would be far more travel than the Ohio MAC schools are used to. Additionally, MVC and A10 are basically one-bid conferences so what benefit is there to going to either? MVC would only make sense for NIU because it would be even less travel than Horizon for us but harder to win the conference and the only bid. I like Horizon because we should be able to be competitive and win some championships and the one automatic bid. All the mid-major conferences have been regulated to one-bid conferences now. Only mid-major conferences consistently getting multiple bids the last 5+ years were MWC and WCC.
07-22-2026 05:29 PM
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BeatWestern! Offline
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Post: #12
RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
(07-21-2026 07:17 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 04:17 PM)EP Bison Fan Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 03:36 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 12:20 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  Would the Montana schools accept a FB only invite? They are in the footprint for other sporst.

Also, do they have $23 million to pay the MWC for a football-only invite?

MWC Commissioner said at media days they aren't actively looking for more members right now because the media $ isn't there and they don't want to split the same pie more ways. So would a Montana school forgo media $, pay $18 million to join (like Sac St), and pay the $5 million NCAA FBS reclassification fee?

Sac St basically set the new market rate to get a G6 invite after NDSU set it right before them.

Being a former MAC school fan, do you think Gloria could flip Toledo, Ohio, or Miami as possible football-only adds? The blueprint is kind of there with your deal. Those three probably wouldn't make UNLV too angry.

IMO, I think the odds are not good for any other MAC school to leave. The MAC is basically an Ohio-centric conference (with three Michigan schools). Toledo is literally within a 3.5 hr drive of 9 MAC schools for all sports.

For NIU, it was easier for us. We were only within 3.5 hrs of one MAC school (WMU). So NIU was already used to having to bus further distances for all sports or fly. We had to fly to Ohio, Buffalo, UMass (once they joined), Temple (before they left), and Sac St (if we stayed).

Horizon League is actually better for our Olympic sports because we are closer to the center of the Horizon footprint. In the MAC, we were always on the western edge with no one else close to us. Because of that, we also had no real rivarlies in the MAC.

I think the only other current MAC schools who would actually leave are Buffalo and UMass. UMass already left once before but then came back after their football program floundered in independence purgatory (not that their football has ever been good in FBS). Buffalo would probably only leave for an American or ACC invite (but they'll probably never get either unless large scale realignment shifts happen again).

Also, I don't think any of the other MAC schools hated Tuesday and Wednesday games like NIU hated them. Our players said in multiple MWC media day interviews they did not like the midweek games, previous NIU football head coaches told me in person the same thing (even though publicly they said they liked them), and our fanbase absolutely came to despise them. They were a fun novelty for the first 3-4 years but after 20 years of them it got old.

Finally, I don't think any Ohio MAC school would actually think about leaving until Toledo did. If Toledo did, I think that would motivate Ohio and Miami-Ohio to consider also leaving.

Bam! Excellent, on target analysis!
07-23-2026 10:16 AM
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EP Bison Fan Offline
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Post: #13
College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
(07-23-2026 10:16 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 07:17 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 04:17 PM)EP Bison Fan Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 03:36 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(07-21-2026 12:20 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote:  Would the Montana schools accept a FB only invite? They are in the footprint for other sporst.

Also, do they have $23 million to pay the MWC for a football-only invite?

MWC Commissioner said at media days they aren't actively looking for more members right now because the media $ isn't there and they don't want to split the same pie more ways. So would a Montana school forgo media $, pay $18 million to join (like Sac St), and pay the $5 million NCAA FBS reclassification fee?

Sac St basically set the new market rate to get a G6 invite after NDSU set it right before them.

Being a former MAC school fan, do you think Gloria could flip Toledo, Ohio, or Miami as possible football-only adds? The blueprint is kind of there with your deal. Those three probably wouldn't make UNLV too angry.

IMO, I think the odds are not good for any other MAC school to leave. The MAC is basically an Ohio-centric conference (with three Michigan schools). Toledo is literally within a 3.5 hr drive of 9 MAC schools for all sports.

For NIU, it was easier for us. We were only within 3.5 hrs of one MAC school (WMU). So NIU was already used to having to bus further distances for all sports or fly. We had to fly to Ohio, Buffalo, UMass (once they joined), Temple (before they left), and Sac St (if we stayed).

Horizon League is actually better for our Olympic sports because we are closer to the center of the Horizon footprint. In the MAC, we were always on the western edge with no one else close to us. Because of that, we also had no real rivarlies in the MAC.

I think the only other current MAC schools who would actually leave are Buffalo and UMass. UMass already left once before but then came back after their football program floundered in independence purgatory (not that their football has ever been good in FBS). Buffalo would probably only leave for an American or ACC invite (but they'll probably never get either unless large scale realignment shifts happen again).

Also, I don't think any of the other MAC schools hated Tuesday and Wednesday games like NIU hated them. Our players said in multiple MWC media day interviews they did not like the midweek games, previous NIU football head coaches told me in person the same thing (even though publicly they said they liked them), and our fanbase absolutely came to despise them. They were a fun novelty for the first 3-4 years but after 20 years of them it got old.

Finally, I don't think any Ohio MAC school would actually think about leaving until Toledo did. If Toledo did, I think that would motivate Ohio and Miami-Ohio to consider also leaving.

Bam! Excellent, on target analysis!


Agreed, best response on this site I’ve seen in a long time.

Knowing that now, would the MWC take all three of Ohio, Toledo, and Miami football only to get to 14?

I keep thinking football only is going to end up creating odd friends between, the Summit, Horizon, MAC, and MVC. Someone is going to figure out how to get a two bid basketball league out of that mess.


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07-27-2026 10:15 PM
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
I don’t think anyone else from the MAC is going to pursue football only with MWC or PAC 12. It worked for NIU because the Horizon was willing to go to 12 for them.

If anyone else tried to do the same thing now they’d be looking at the Summit or OVC and neither makes sense for an OH or MI school. I’m not even sure that if the MVC was willing to open a 12th spot it would make sense…maybe for Ball State.
08-01-2026 09:37 PM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
Am I crazy in thinking the A10 might be interested in Toledo? It's in their footprint and Toledo has been regularly in the NIT. I realize the A10 is not a regular multibid conference, but it's a nice step up in exposure and $ probably. But I'm spitballing here.
08-03-2026 10:04 AM
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NIUfilmmaker Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
Toledo, Ohio, Miami of Ohio all bring something to the table, can't decide which I prefer if we're destined for the MWC for more than this 6 year stint.
08-05-2026 05:03 PM
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epasnoopy Offline
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RE: College Football Realignment: Ranking The Top 5 Potential Mountain West Expansion Tar
I think you want Toledo just because they are the closest to NIU. Ohio would just be another flight game for us. NIU flew to the Ohio game last season. DeKalb to Athens is over an 8 hour drive vs DeKalb to Toledo is 5 hours.
08-05-2026 06:54 PM
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