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(11-19-2025 10:27 PM)schwebbs84 Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 10:25 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 10:08 PM)schwebbs84 Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 09:48 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  Still time left, but Buffalo scenarios are starting to look moot.

I've been working a simulator that I found this morning.

Miami winning tonight doesn't hurt us.

If we lose to Eastern, we would need Toledo to beat Central or Ball State to beat Miami. If Central beats Toledo and Miami beats Ball State, we would slide to fourth on tiebreaks.

This assumes 'chalk' results of Toledo, BGSU, Ohio, and Kent State winning next week.

Bottom line: beat Eastern and nothing else matters.

I'm curious which one? I put those same results in this one: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/colle...-predictor and it spits out Miami vs. WMU. (BTW by no means am I saying this one is right, I'm not sure I trust any of them to figure out this clusterfk)

https://bball.notnothing.net/mac.php?sport=fb

It appears what they're doing in that at least a 3 way tie they don't look at head-to-head but common opponents first. I don't think they updated the tiebreakers after they dropped divisions. Essentially your division is your common opponents.

I just want to mention that it is annoyingly impressive that Miami won tonight. For as much of a non-factor Martin is OOC, he had his team prepared after Finn quit on them. It feels like they've rallied around it. Their defense is phenomenal, but I think if we are able to get a rematch with them in Detroit, I think we would play a better game.

(11-19-2025 11:25 PM)WesternDave Wrote:  I just want to mention that it is annoyingly impressive that Miami won tonight. For as much of a non-factor Martin is OOC, he had his team prepared after Finn quit on them. It feels like they've rallied around it. Their defense is phenomenal, but I think if we are able to get a rematch with them in Detroit, I think we would play a better game.

I think it's partially that, but also partially Buffalo's success was smoke n' mirrors. Until last night, they hadn't played Miami or Ohio yet, they don't play us or Toledo at all, and got clobbered by CMU.

If for some reason we get upset by EMU, but all other MAC games go "as expected," it would result in this 4-way tie:

- WMU
- Miami
- Ohio
- Toledo or CMU (I think this one's a toss-up in Mt Pee)

Neither Toledo nor CMU play Ohio, so from what I gather here, all "H2H" analysis is thrown out the window. Which stings because our record among that little group is the best.

We then get into common opponents and opponents' records, which would give anyone a headache without some program set up. Not to mention pilot's point of how they proceed in going through the steps.

But at the end of the day, no reason why we shouldn't take care of things next Tuesday (famous last words, lol). I'm not expecting a blowout, the emus step it up against us, but a loss would be disappointing even though this season has gone considerably better than expected. Few people assumed 7+ wins this year.

(11-20-2025 08:59 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  If for some reason we get upset by EMU, but all other MAC games go "as expected," it would result in this 4-way tie:

- WMU
- Miami
- Ohio
- Toledo or CMU (I think this one's a toss-up in Mt Pee)

Neither Toledo nor CMU play Ohio, so from what I gather here, all "H2H" analysis is thrown out the window. Which stings because our record among that little group is the best.

We then get into common opponents and opponents' records, which would give anyone a headache without some program set up. Not to mention pilot's point of how they proceed in going through the steps.

But at the end of the day, no reason why we shouldn't take care of things next Tuesday (famous last words, lol). I'm not expecting a blowout, the emus step it up against us, but a loss would be disappointing even though this season has gone considerably better than expected. Few people assumed 7+ wins this year.

And yet…as of this morning, per the “College FPM” predictor someone referenced yesterday, our chance to make the MACCG has actually increased from yesterday to 98.86%! This whole thing is like splitting the atom! Something is off somewhere!

just a note - most of these "predictors" don't factor in the MAC tiebreakers. They either use the NFL tiebreakers or some other major conference as a default.