(10-21-2025 04:44 PM)EdwordL Wrote: (04-11-2025 11:35 PM)JRsec Wrote: (04-10-2025 05:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: (04-09-2025 03:41 PM)XLance Wrote: (04-09-2025 02:00 PM)BePcr07 Wrote: The only reason some people consistently tie North Carolina to the B1G is AAU. Otherwise, North Carolina - as a state - is far greater fit in the SEC than it is in the B1G. Competitively, they would be joining the current #1 basketball conference which should intrigue their fans. Football would suffer but probably improve as the school starting raking in SEC money. I give it like 90% (maybe greater) that they join the SEC.
Duke, with its massive draw in New York, could definitely go to the B1G. They also "feel" more like a B1G school than North Carolina does. Duke also has a lot more peer institutions in the B1G than they do in the SEC.
Carolina as a top ten research University is more akin to B1G schools than it is to most of the schools in the SEC.
When South Carolina almost rejoined the ACC in 2010-12, one of the biggest concerns they had was that Carolina would de-emphasize their undergraduate programs and become like Northwestern, Duke and Johns Hopkins where graduate level/research students would outnumber UG students. The NC legislature increased the number of UG students allowed in Chapel Hill and now the ratio is roughly 50% UG, 50% graduate.
You are correct in that the State of NC as a whole is more like other states in the South, but the Triangle area of NC is not like the rest of the state.
It's probably going to be which faction wins out in Chapel Hill (B1G supporters vs SEC supporters) or which conference guarantees the most money/concessions (scheduling, division mates etc.) as to which direction the Heels decide to go.
Has Texas joined the ACC yet? You assured us that was coming.
Of all the things you flat make up, and there are many, I've always found your tale that South Carolina was interested in going back to the ACC one of the more fanciful yet odd yarns.
You're about as credible as The Dude of West Virginia.
I suspect that ESPN has already determined what it wants to do with the ACC and bringing in the Big East seems reasonable if their intent is to hold onto Notre Dame. To do that effectively they need to retain Georgia Tech and Miami.
ESPN can monetize their investment in FSU and Clemson more fully if they are in the SEC. If the bell cows of UNC, Virginia and Duke want the security of a super conference they'll move them as well. With those 5 in hand, why not polish off the big hoops brands by including Kansas. Would there be a hoops conference to compare? ESPN marries the SEC's new basketball energy to the remaining top brands of the sport. That creates massive national demand for the product and showcases all making the Winter a fine compliment to the SEC's Fall lineup which would now include Clemson and FSU.
Notre Dame could help draw in the Big East while Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Boston College have old home week along with Miami and if they can grab them West Virginia. And remember Virginia Tech was part of that as well.
Meanwhile the SEC has a marriage of the Tea sips and the wine and cheese crowd, but hey we are now big enough to accommodate that without losing our direction. Perhaps having 20 is too limiting as the next to last step in this process. Maybe 22 is a better intermediate step requiring less in the way of a final move later on.
Now if the ACC is not to remain as a standalone entity, then you could see Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Stanford head to the Big 10. Then we wait a few years and round out at 24 each with the Big 10 looking West again and the SEC perhaps consolidating the 24 by accommodating N.C. State and Virginia Tech and permanently (as in foreseeable future) cementing the old core of the ACC into the SEC.
Either way, whatever is coming ESPN has already thought it through. And with the SEC and Big 10 taking over the operation of the CFP in 2027, that would be a great time to work the additions into both conferences.
There are those suggesting the conferences need to be of equal strength for a scheduling agreement. While it is helpful to be able to accommodate everyone with such a deal, the real reason for equal numbers of members resides in voting.
Whether we see the SEC increase to 18, 20, 22, or 24 the impetus behind any of those numbers will reside in what ESPN wants to do with the ACC and how they want them placed, and to what extent that for the sake of the new ventures, likely including a hoops tournament, FOX has been included in the parsing.
Should be a fascinating next couple of years.
JR: As long as ND has a path to the CFP as an independent, wouldn't you think they might try to retain their autonomy by signing additional long-term OOC series with other schools (as they did with Clemson), in order to avoid conference membership?
I believe all of that will come down to whether ESPN buys the rights to N.D.'s home games. I believe N.D. would like that because ESPN can work them into better time slots and use the expanded SEC to fill out a lot of their scheduling needs, but not all of them. For that reason, I think they'll want to keep the ACC a viable entity and use both conferences to accommodate Notre Dame's needs, which if ESPN holds their home game schedule and provides them 9 P games while the Irish retain USC on their schedule and likely Navy and one other buy game, means that ESPN will control 12 games worth of rights on the year that USC is a Notre Dame home game and 11 games when they are away against the Trojans.
It is for this reason that I don't believe the SEC will take more than 4 ACC schools, that they will very likely be Duke, North Carolina and Virginia, plus a Florida school which could very well be Miami or South Florida. And if they don't take Duke or Virginia, that Kansas might well fit the bill.
ESPN wants to hold onto as much of their current revenue model as possible and would give their right arm to land the majority of Notre Dame's rights which for them does not require conference membership. But to build value enough to move the hoops brands to the SEC and build value in the ACC, they need to retain their football brands. Between the ACC & SEC they could easily furnish the Irish 9 P games a year leaving them USC as the 10th. And with two buy games per year ESPN holds the rights to 23 regular season games of the Irish every two years. Add that inventory to what they currently have in the SEC and ACC and they enhance their total value in inventory immensely.
You might see just North Carolina, Virginia, and a Miami or South Florida added to Kansas and if so what has transpired is that ESPN has nabbed the last two top valued programs on the board: #1 Notre Dame valued at a Billion, and #2 Kansas valued at $800 million. They gain 100% of Kansas by placing them in the SEC, and gain 95% of Notre Dames through the home rights and the scheduling agreements.
And they do this while losing nothing.
ESPN couldn't get away with this if they told FOX you can keep what you have, and we'll keep what we have, with the exception that we are going to take NBC's home N.D. games away from them next contract period and Notre Dame with the exception of USC is going to schedule nothing but ACC and SEC schools plus their two home buy games.
FOX would raise hell. But if two, or three key AAU schools leave the ACC for the SEC and the ACC reloads with top G5 programs, like UConn, possibly South Florida, and ESPN looks to pick up Big East hoops by adding them to the ACC, what is FOX going to do?
No doubt the Big 10 will go fishing, but if N.D. remains independent, North Carolina and Virginia move to the SEC, Miami either goes with them or stays put in the ACC, then I don't see that there's much the Big Ten can do. Without the big state prizes, I don't see them settling for FSU, or Georgia Tech and Clemson likely isn't even a consideration for the Big Ten.
This is why I believe ESPN's first priority is keeping the ACC relatively intact. If Kansas is not in play for the SEC because ESPN needs to protect not only UNC and Virginia but also Duke and Miami, they'll go that route and look to add Kansas to the ACC.
Nothing has changed in the way of the network's priorities in the last 15 years. They knew what they wanted in 2010 and tried to land them with a different plan. Then they wanted Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Notre Dame. Those 4 added to the current ESPN inventory trumps anything that FOX with their proxy the Big 10 could add. And who knows, if USC were to be truly unhappy and left the Big Ten in 2031 when their contract is up, they won't forfeit anything but the share they were given in the Big Ten Network. If ESPN gave them the same deal as Notre Dame then they've truly kicked butt!
Texas and Oklahoma are in hand. Notre Dame is hanging around trying to stay independent and keep access to the CFP. The Big Ten and the SEC aren't going to give the Irish a partial membership, but the ACC has, and ESPN levering the SEC to give them a certain number of scheduled games per year is a very workable angle, especially if the SEC gets into North Carolina and Virginia and with the two prizes the Big Ten would be seeking. Toss in either Miami or FSU and the SEC has secured what they were afraid of sharing. If Duke is happy to remain in the ACC, then fine. If they want to travel with North Carolina they wind up in the SEC too and Kansas looks to the ACC. Big East Basketball in general added to the ACC in the wake of the departure of North Carolina, Duke and Virginia fills in for the basketball loss. UConn joins in full to protect their football, South Florida takes the place of one of the departing Florida schools and the ACC is back to 17 plus N.D. Pick up West Virginia, Baylor, Cincinnati and Texas Tech and the ACCN is fully available in Texas, a more Western schedule can be set up for Stanford and Cal, and with Big East hoops you now have back all of the former Big East P6 schools save Rutgers. That solidifies the New England market that the Big Ten tried to claim with Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers.
These are offensive and defensive moves which take the two best remaining Texas programs from the Big 12, giving ESPN the top 5 in the state at 100% plus SMU, and with WVU and UConn for Pitt, B.C. and Syracuse along with Miami and Va Tech add a solid portion of value to the ACCN from Texas, and basically incorporates the Old Big East's value into them as well. It can be done because the bell cows of the ACC were moved to the SEC making for a more compliant change to the nature of the ACC.
What's more is the SEC doesn't have anything to gripe about. North Carolina and Virginia are secured as is their position in Florida. They are only gaining and regardless of what happens in the New ACC or what the Big Ten might do, they have in house everything they've wanted since 1990. They have Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Oklahoma, are in South Carolina but with the Gamecocks and not Clemson, and whether it is Miami or Florida State have the majority of college sports viewers in a state of 22 million. At 20 they have nothing to complain about.
ESPN gains its national conference with the ACC:
Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Virginia Tech
Cincinnati, Louisville, Kansas, South Florida, Wake Forest
Baylor, California, Stanford, Southern Methodist, Texas Tech
This leaves Central Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and T.C.U. and it leaves Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Colorado, and Utah
Now Edword L I think that covers all of Notre Dame's bases, all of the SEC's bases, makes for a very viable and competitive ACC which has competitive bonuses to offset some revenue plus a boost to the ACCN and their annual revenue due to the improved overall competitiveness and regional appeal, satisfies Ole Miss and provides for Kansas either way.
Then if USC wants a Notre Dame deal, ESPN has again scooped the field and Big Ten is out of options.
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Ending Realignment/Consolidation: We Could Do This or That!
CFB Mafia's Friday show is one place where Moen touches on this, but not the first time. Fast forward to 45:17 please.
