I’m not going to lie, getting 4 berths (and 1 more than the SEC) last year was awesome. Will the league pull off 4 bids again this year?

Who are your picks to represent the league?

4-5

Ohio State, Penn State, USC, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Washington, and maybe Michigan State are who we are looking at as of today.

3, maybe 4

Given the same record most Big Ten teams are probably going to slot behind SEC teams. It’ll mostly be a question of how many Big Ten teams can get 10 wins. A bunch of 9 win teams and the Big Ten will end up like the SEC last year with many on the doorstep but few in the party.

(09-19-2025 11:17 AM)Crayton Wrote:  3, maybe 4

Given the same record most Big Ten teams are probably going to slot behind SEC teams. It’ll mostly be a question of how many Big Ten teams can get 10 wins. A bunch of 9 win teams and the Big Ten will end up like the SEC last year with many on the doorstep but few in the party.

I'm sticking with my 4-5 pick as of now, lol. It's a week to week projection and that could actually drop all the way down to 3 or even 2 picks at anytime. I'm confident at 4, though.

(09-19-2025 11:17 AM)Crayton Wrote:  3, maybe 4

Given the same record most Big Ten teams are probably going to slot behind SEC teams. It’ll mostly be a question of how many Big Ten teams can get 10 wins. A bunch of 9 win teams and the Big Ten will end up like the SEC last year with many on the doorstep but few in the party.

I might add that I like your graph. Is that your formula?

Southern California remaining notable games: Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Iowa, and Oregon.

They should be favored in every game except Notre Dame and Oregon, I would think?

If they can split the Notre Dame and Oregon games plus win all the others, they would obviously be a lock. I think they are a lock too if those would be their only 2 losses.

Remaining Washington schedule:
Ohio State
Maryland
Rutgers
Michigan
Illinois
Wisconsin
Purdue
UCLA
Oregon

I believe that Washington has a legitimate shot at upsetting Ohio State next week.

This is a school absolutely nobody is talking about. I'm looking forward to the rest of their season. Maybe there is good reason for the lack of respect so far?

Indiana got a key win over Illinois which will help if they tie at 10-2 (as if Illinois will go 10-2 this year).

If IU played like they did yesterday, who knows, maybe they can win at PSU and/or Oregon but for now let's assume they'll be 10-2. I think Michigan at 10-2 still beats them because their schedule probably will be perceived to be better and just name recognition. We still don't know if USC is for real just yet, they have to travel to Illinois and Notre Dame plus host Michigan by Oct. 18, we'll find out soon. Some key wins and they'll definitely be in the mix soon. Indiana certainly would like Illinois to finish strong to give them at least one quality win if they can't beat Penn State or Oregon.

I think there's a decent chance at 4. One thing that might help us vs. the SEC is Clemson's tank job is ruining LSU's big win so far. One team the Big Ten doesn't want on the borderline on Selection Sunday is Oklahoma, especially if Michigan is also on the borderline. We wouldn't mind it coming down to Ohio State vs. Texas although OSU fans don't want to be anywhere near the borderline and I highly doubt they will be.

(09-19-2025 02:47 PM)cubucks Wrote:  

(09-19-2025 11:17 AM)Crayton Wrote:  3, maybe 4

Given the same record most Big Ten teams are probably going to slot behind SEC teams. It’ll mostly be a question of how many Big Ten teams can get 10 wins. A bunch of 9 win teams and the Big Ten will end up like the SEC last year with many on the doorstep but few in the party.

I might add that I like your graph. Is that your formula?

More like an algorithm applied to a simulation. Yes, one of my few easily-discernible charts. This week is mostly the same; posted in the ACC forum.

(09-21-2025 07:58 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(09-19-2025 02:47 PM)cubucks Wrote:  

(09-19-2025 11:17 AM)Crayton Wrote:  3, maybe 4

Given the same record most Big Ten teams are probably going to slot behind SEC teams. It’ll mostly be a question of how many Big Ten teams can get 10 wins. A bunch of 9 win teams and the Big Ten will end up like the SEC last year with many on the doorstep but few in the party.

I might add that I like your graph. Is that your formula?

More like an algorithm applied to a simulation. Yes, one of my few easily-discernible charts. This week is mostly the same; posted in the ACC forum.

Very nice!

Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon. Oregon will give a third loss to USC and Washington. Ohio State will give a third loss to MeCheatAgain.

Update for this week. B1G slumping a bit after the USC loss. I currently have the Illinois-Washington winner as the third B1G team.

(10-20-2025 01:27 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Update for this week. B1G slumping a bit after the USC loss. I currently have the Illinois-Washington winner as the third B1G team.

I find that interesting. I would've presumed your simulation would've indicated Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon as the three likely times. Or do you mean the winner of Illinois-Washington as the third team after whomever is the B1G Conference Champion?

Its a disasterphy. Only 3.

(10-22-2025 11:00 AM)MaroonState Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:27 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Update for this week. B1G slumping a bit after the USC loss. I currently have the Illinois-Washington winner as the third B1G team.

I find that interesting. I would've presumed your simulation would've indicated Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon as the three likely times. Or do you mean the winner of Illinois-Washington as the third team after whomever is the B1G Conference Champion?

OSU and IU are the first 2. For the third, it is Oregon, then Illinois, then USC, then a logjam of 2-loss teams like Washington. But the Illinois-Washington winner is slightly above Oregon.

I combine those 2 mostly because it is the next game played and the loser is OUT. If Illinois wins they vault past Oregon (as more likely to make the playoff, not necessarily in the rankings), but if Washington wins they may not travel that high.

(10-24-2025 05:12 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-22-2025 11:00 AM)MaroonState Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:27 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Update for this week. B1G slumping a bit after the USC loss. I currently have the Illinois-Washington winner as the third B1G team.

I find that interesting. I would've presumed your simulation would've indicated Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon as the three likely times. Or do you mean the winner of Illinois-Washington as the third team after whomever is the B1G Conference Champion?

OSU and IU are the first 2. For the third, it is Oregon, then Illinois, then USC, then a logjam of 2-loss teams like Washington. But the Illinois-Washington winner is slightly above Oregon.

I combine those 2 mostly because it is the next game played and the loser is OUT. If Illinois wins they vault past Oregon (as more likely to make the playoff, not necessarily in the rankings), but if Washington wins they may not travel that high.

Interesting, thank you for sharing.