(11-29-2022 11:38 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(11-26-2022 01:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(11-26-2022 01:20 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(11-26-2022 09:47 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  Wanted to use this platform/thread (since it's on topic) to congratulate Tulane on their win yesterday. Solid D, great QB. Nice ABC audience to boot.

Hope you guys take down UCF next week. With the way you are playing you deserve the Cotton Bowl this year. And it's honestly overdue since 1998.

I think the SBC and the AAC going forward are going to be pretty even top to bottom.
So we'll see how that shakes out. The two of us, plus the MWC are going to be competing every year for the top spot between us. Good OOC scheduling, win those games, and hope for a strong conference that particular year and you're likely in.

It's a shame we couldn't have a National conference with the very best from each of the 3 leagues. Because I think that would be closer to P6 than anything we will all have individually going forward.

Good luck to you Tulane. Love to see you in the Cotton Bowl vs traditional rival LSU!

While I appreciate the support, what an offensive thing to say about the SBC and AAC being equal. The AAC is not even in the same universe as the SBC. Not even close. We have the markets and the academics. Most of our programs are household names and we take the NY6 bowl just about every single year. While we do appreciate your support, please educate yourself on how the AAC is more in line the the Big 12, PAC 12, and ACC and nowhere close to the SBC and MWC. Thank you.

Top to bottom?

The AAC 14 is already way ahead of the Sun Belt at the top, certainly.
This year the Sun Belt is having good year in the computer rankings because their middle and bottom aren't as bad as they usually are. That's in contrast to the extreme statistical outlier of 2020 (a year of questionable statistical unreliability, too, with the lack of inter-conference play and statiscal connection) when the top 3 were well ahead of historical, but dragged down by standard middle and bottom. Those top 3 have regressed to their means, of course.

Looking at the current Massey Composite Rankings, comparing the current 14-team Sun Belt and next year's 14-team AAC:
Top team: AAC 22, Sun Belt 39
Average ranking top 2 teams: AAC 29, Sun Belt 41.5
Average ranking top 3 teams: AAC 37.67, Sun Belt 43
Average ranking top 4 teams: AAC 44.25, Sun Belt 46.5
Average ranking middle 6 teams: Sun Belt 81.67, AAC 86
Average ranking middle 4 teams: Sun Belt 84.25, AAC 87.25
Average ranking bottom 4 teams: Sun Belt 113, AAC 119

That of course is before the current legacy teams IMPROVE in rankings from departure of UC, UH, UCF. For the legacy eight, 15 2022 Ls are walking out the door 01 July 2023. There is a move up factor for the AAC that neither the mwc or Sun Belt will get.

We will see what that impact is next year, but with the top of the 2023 AAC ALREADY ahead of a Sun Belt that is having its second best year of the CFP era in Massey Composite...the American is going to be juuuust fine.

But I started talking about statistics and math early, so I don't expect Fact Free Fun Belt Fans to keep up with this conversation.

It’s gonna be fun as hell watching you defend the horsesh!t coming into the AAC next year Mike. If you’re not Mike then I’m flabbergasted. There’s no way in hell you’re doing this sh!t for free. How do I sign up? I’d promote the heck out of the MAC if you paid me.

Well, I challenge you to find a post of me saying I love all six of the new additions -- because I don't.
None of them was good enough to be chosen when we lost football weak sister UConn in 2019. One was debatably a hold-your-nose-and-take-em, and yet we didn't. Losing three of our top five teams put us in a worse position.
Anyone who thinks we shouldn't have taken six schools must not like money for their school. We offset the loss of 40% of our viewers (an elastic 40%, because that's truly about who is AAC#1 and AAC#2 any given year) with 30% more inventory overall.
The "Marketzzz derp derp derp" crowd are wrong as hell too. We went after budgets and investment and commitment. The only potential add with comparable budget chose not to play football in 2020. Didn't App State and Georgia State leadership say out loud that they couldn't afford to join the American? Charlotte and Rice have both been talking about athletic investments in the $100 million range.
Anyone who thinks that the Sun Belt somehow got the better football program additions hasn't been paying attention. With UTSA and UNT matching up Friday night, that will be the last six CUSA champs, three or four of the inbounds. UTSA is ranked in both the AP and Coaches' Polls this week - I'll bet a dollar right now we'll see them on tonight's CFP ranking reveal, too - zip for any Sun Belt teams.
Everyone wanted App State? Massey Composite has the Mountaineers #77 right now. UTSA way ahead and UNT/UAB are #78/#79.
We don't need all 6 to be worldbeaters. A couple of them occupying their current triple-digit rankings will be just fine. We don't need any of them to instantly transform into what UCF and Cincinnati have (briefly) been within the last few years. So long as the top two or three are where they are today, we'll be fine.
And TV timeslots and computer rankings will both have some move-up for the top of the league - fewer Ls to UC, UCF, UH will be more of a positive than a minimal SoS change will be a negative.
AAC will be just fine next year, and the doomsayers will be crying in their beers.

Now on the more important point -- monetizing my contributions here. Yeah, I need to figure that out. Thinking about 2023 / Year 2 post active duty. Until then, it's like pro bono work. Or Christian charity. Like a doctor or dentist spending vacation time at a third world clinic. I'll keep trying to enlighten the willfully ignorant, whether they're Fact Free Fun Belt Fans, or even the occasional Tiger or Pirate who has somehow been drinking that FlavorAid.