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(01-12-2023 05:53 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(01-12-2023 04:31 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  For fun I tried to figure out what the Path to a tournament bid would look like...

barttorvik.com has a really good tourneycast / teamcast feature.

These next 3 games are huge. I gave us wins and then a loss at houston... Then let Bartorrvik project the rest. (including a trip to the conference tournament final). That projection has us 23-11 (12-6) and has us as the 10th team out.

Now for my next projection I had us run the table at home (while keeping our next 4 as 3-1 with a loss at Houston). That only got us to 24-10 (13-5) and had us on the bubble (5th team out).

The next simulation I added a road win over UCF. Same result 24-10 (13-5) but the 1st team out.

My final simulation I added a road win at ECU. That gets us to 25-9 (14-4) in the projection...and among the last 4 in. (in fact..the last team in).

I think they can lose 2-3 more games and have a chance, but they'd have to go 3-1 against UCF/Memphis (they need the quality wins) and probably have to make the conference tournament finals. (it still might not be enough, but that's the narrow path)

It's crazy to think that a 24-win UC team won't make the tournament.

Every UC team with 22 or more wins has made the NCAA tournament, except one (1949, when the NCAA invited only 8 teams).

Four 22-win UC teams made the NCAA tournament: 1994, 2013, 2015, 2016.

And we've had three teams with fewer than 22 wins make the tourney (1966, 1975, 2003). In 2003, we got an at-large bid at 17-11 in C-USA.

C-USA was really good and UC also got the benefit of the doubt that year too due to getting some big non-conference wins.

I just want to see this team get the next 3 games so the rest of the seasons gets interesting.