(08-05-2022 04:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-05-2022 03:49 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

There has been a lot of chatter about the possibility that the Big XII schools may receive less than $20 million per year in broadcasting revenue, due to the departure of OU & Texas.

This would represent a substantial revenue cut, in the range of $10 to $15 million/year less than what the Big XII schools are currently receiving from the broadcasters.

Yet those who argue that the PAC will stay put with only 10 schools seem to have the impression that their broadcasting revenue streams will be relatively unaffected by the departure of USC and UCLA.

Question: Why would the departure of OU and Texas have a devastating impact on the Big XII remainers' broadcasting revenue, while the departure of USC and UCLA would have only a trivial impact on the PAC remainers?

Well my answer would be that I expect both the nB12 and nPAC to see very substantial reductions compared to what they would have gotten had the four schools not left the respective conferences.

I think thats what many people fail to understand when they start with the calculating. They take the present value of a over a decade old contract---subtract half the value---and then divide by 12 to generate a current Big12 per team value estimate. In 2011, the Big East was an AQ conference (BCS system) and had probably the best basketball leagues in the nation. The full members were making about 4 million each from TV. In late 2011 and 2012 the Big East lost almost all of its former P5 members, almost all of the old basketball league including Notre Dame and the C7----and had to replace those football/basketball loses with Navy and a bunch of CUSA schools. Just 9 years later---the rebuilt and renamed Big East successor conference (The American) landed a 7 million dollar per team deal---almost twice what the "AQ/P5" level Big East was paid in 2011 with its outstanding basketball league fully intact. The lesson here is those decade+ old TV deal values mean little today.

Yeah, the Big12 lost its brightest two brand names....but it still has 8 well known P5 names. It brought in 4 of the best from the non-P5 world---all 4 with very attractive football programs---and 3 of the 4 with very high level basketball programs. The current Big12's football will be better than the old Big East and its basketball league may be the best in the nation. The Big12 is going to end up with some very nice media offers because, despite the loses---it still represents a very attractive college sports property---it just wont be as attractive as it would have been with UT and OU. Still---wait and see----nobody in the Big12 is going to be taking a pay cut.