(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
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That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.