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(11-15-2021 10:34 AM)bcat1997 Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 10:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 08:19 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  I think we should all be a little nervous. SMU and UH are good teams. Even ECU is not terrible and we play them at ECU on senior night. Let's be honest, UC hasn't exactly played like an elite team of late. We are playing down to our opponents. Statistically I can't even understand how Friday's game was not a bigger blowout. UC held USF to under 3 yards per carry and held their QB to 50% completion with two INT's. I guess that's what happens with you have 3 turnovers and allow an 80 yard passing TD.

You've stumbled on something key. It's why the advanced stats still love this team and why Vegas still has us as the 4th or 5th best team (behind Georgia/Bama/OSU who have a pretty big gap from the rest and with Michigan). Even these games that scores don't indicate utter dominance, the relative success rates do. Using SP+ UC has had a 99% or higher post game win expectancy in all but 2 games this year, including last week against USF. UC dominated.

Vegas has similar data they look at when setting lines. They know there is randomness to final scores, but this kind of thing is better for evaluating future success. Despite the narrative that UC is struggling (and games that we didn't get as far away as we'd like) the numbers still suggest this is an elite team. The only two games UC wasn't 99%+ in post game win expectancy were Indiana (UC was 87%) and Tulsa (UC was 88%). I'm guessing only Georgia has been similar dominant post game win expectancies across the season.

I would guess Navy was lower as well, think they outgained us in yardage.