(12-15-2021 08:04 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-14-2021 10:13 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  In case anyone was wondering why the rich guys offered up the money, well it’s basic economics & the math is not good For any option.

47340 was CPJ’s attendance last 5 years.

44599 was G*C*’s attendance 1st year. That’s despite having the mutt at home. This year was 37819, again odd number years are bigger attendance years because we have 55k mutt fans at our house.

He’s cost us roughly 9,500 fans per game already. I’ll be conservative and concede he only loses 5% next year taking us down to roughly 35, 900. We will have the lost 11,500 fans per game.

Let’s say revenue per fan seat is $75 (I believe it’s closer to $100 but could be more). That‘s a hair over $850k/game loss & at 6 games comes to a little more than $5M per year now. Let’s say he excels and wins 3 games per year from here on out & only loses about 5% additional per year. Well, that’s an extra $1M/ yr in additional lost ticket revenue each successive year we keep him.

If we fire him now it’s $13.8M. Let’s say we have to pay $4M/ year with a $250k/yr increase to take over the dumpster fire he’s created. In 4 years, that’s $18.5M over the 4 year period for a total of $32.3M. The lift from a new coach that’s not an imbecile probably brings back 3k fans or so in year 1, a fair amount over $1M/ yr in additional revenue. If a good coach reclaims 5% of our attendance annually through decent coaching, he gains $1M per year. Over 4 years we’ve only lost a new of $10M in revenue. Grand total is $42.3M

If we fire the imbecile next year, it costs us $3.3M for next season plus $7.2M buyout for $10.5M. However, he costs us $5M is lost revenue for a total of $15.5M. Then we owe a new coach $4.5M/yr (bigger dumpster fire to take over) with $500k/ yr increase. That’s $15M in salary. He’s now digging out from a $6M/yr deficit, so he misses on about $13M in revenue because more fans have left us. We have a grand total costs to the program of $43.5M.

It basically costs us $1M to get rid of this imbecile now. That’s it. We could raise that in our sleep. Or 1 phone call.

Hang onto him for another year and it’s $6.8M in salary plus $11M in lost revenue and a $4.8M buyout for a total of $22.6M. New coach is now 2 year at $10M, and he avoids $9M in lost revenue over 2 seasons. That’s $41.6M.

It basically saves us about $750k if we wait 2 years. Everyone clamoring about all the money we’re saving hasn’t really thought this through or is too close to the pipe. Retaining the imbecile is not a cost savings measure.

You substitute $100 per seat and the penalty to retain the imbecile skyrockets. It’s not hard to envision that as you’ve got long time, loyal fans giving up chairbacks. Those are not $450/yr seats ($75x6) they’re triple that.

We’re circling the drain financially & it’s a very expensive and dangerous move to retain the imbecile. IIWII. We the people do not have a vote.

All this may be true, but... have you been keeping up with the coaching carousel this year? Who's left that's worth hiring? If you wait until next year, will you have a better selection of candidates to choose from? Conversely, if you hire from the leftovers, will you be replacing one incompetent coach with another?

We do not pay coaches that much anyways so we will be in the 2-4M range for HC...those candidates are here this year and next year...