The critical thing that determines the future of the Big 12 is whether or not they retain a guaranteed seat at the playoff table once UT and OU are gone. The guaranteed seat at the BCS was what allowed the Big East to retool when it was first raided by the ACC. If the Big 12 loses that seat, it has significantly less to offer anyone. This would also increase the likelihood that the existing members would scramble for other conferences that had the guarantee.