Ran the numbers for the 4-team playoff and it was mostly as expected. A small chance USC still gets in even with a loss (at the expense of Ohio State, Texas, or Georgia. Somehow Wisconsin weasels its way in 0.32% of the time. Must be riding Iowa's coattails following a BIG victory over the Buckeyes.

100% (11-1)+W Alabama (60%)
100% (11-1)+W Iowa (71%)
100% (11-1)+W Oklahoma (64%)
100% (12-0)+W USC (65%)
100% (12-0)+W Washington (34%)
98% (11-1)+W Ohio St (28%)
97% (10-2)+W Texas (35%)
95% (11-1)+W Georgia (39%)
7% (12-0)+L USC (34%)
0% (11-1) Wisconsin (100%)

And, here are the 6+6 numbers. Curious that in a single scenario #16 Wake Forest (victory over #21 Virginia Tech) leaps over #9 Texas (victory over #3 Oklahoma) for that 4th BYE; WF AD must be filling a spot on the committee in that possible-world.

B:0 C:0 A:10001 H:10001 X:0 Wisconsin
B:0 C:0 A:10001 H:8636 X:0 Air Force
B:0 C:0 A:6208 H:136 X:0 Texas A&M
B:0 C:0 A:136 H:0 X:0 BYU
B:7123 C:0 A:2878 H:2766 X:0 Iowa
B:6580 C:0 A:3421 H:3421 X:0 USC
B:6429 C:0 A:3572 H:3570 X:0 Oklahoma
B:6054 C:0 A:3947 H:2236 X:0 Alabama
B:3947 C:0 A:430 H:0 X:0 Georgia
B:3571 C:1 A:6068 H:1636 X:0 Texas
B:3421 C:0 A:6580 H:6580 X:0 Washington
B:2878 C:0 A:6764 H:962 X:0 Ohio St
B:1 C:6654 A:0 H:61 X:0 Wake Forest
B:0 C:8742 A:0 H:0 X:24 Marshall
B:0 C:2106 A:0 H:0 X:3480 Memphis
B:0 C:1310 A:0 H:0 X:3875 Boise St
B:0 C:927 A:0 H:0 X:2419 Virginia Tech
B:0 C:141 A:0 H:0 X:4274 Cincinnati
B:0 C:121 A:0 H:0 X:4385 Ga Southern
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:6881 Buffalo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4816 San Jose St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1235 La Tech
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3120 Toledo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:5495 Louisiana

Also interesting that while a Wake Forest ACC Championship secures them a playoff spot 100% of the time and Marshall is at 99%, a championship gets 9-3 Virginia Tech a playoff spot only 27% of the time. 10-2 Memphis (37%) and 9-3 Boise (25%) have similar odds while 9-3 Cincinnati (3%) and 10-2 Georgia Southern (2%) need miracles.

One of the drawbacks of such a large playoff is that the Top 10 teams all have nearly a 100% chance of making the playoff heading into their CCGs. Yes, seeding is on the line, but it does seem to change the dynamic of these games. An odd exception is Georgia who gets an at large bid only 7% of the time they lose; the Longhorns (94%) are the only other team at risk of falling out. Alabama defeating Georgia seems to propel the 10-2 Aggies (who lost by a FG to Alabama) past the 11-2 Bulldogs.