(06-11-2021 03:20 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 01:29 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 01:01 PM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 12:19 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:22 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  BYU has a choice, but it's not between winning a conference championship vs. going undefeated as an FBS independent.

Actually, BYU has this choice:

Join a conference, knowing that this would give them two different ways of making the CFP (by going undefeated, or by going 12-1 and winning their conference championship).

OR

Remaining as a FBS independent, knowing that their only pathway to the CFP is to go undefeated (only one BYU team has gone undefeated since 1922).

.

As a FBS independent, losing a mid-season game would make it nearly impossible to compete for a national championship.

However, as a conference member, it would be possible to advance to the CFP, even if they lose a mid-season game.

Considering the fact that BYU has had many more 1-loss teams than undefeated teams, joining a conference would double or triple their chances of making their way to into the college football playoffs.

There is no guarantee 12-1 would be top six champ. We saw this past season. Had Cincy lost then Coastal would have been in! So imagine a situation where the P5 gets all five in and a couple G5’s run the table. There is NO guarantee because it’s up to the committee. I feel the committee will still reward BYU playing P5s like they do now.

It's true that a team could go 12-1 without getting a CFP auto-bid, because it would also need to be one of the six highest-ranked conference champs.

In fact, there were 3 G5 conference champs (ranked #17, #18, and #20) that all went 12-1. Only one of them would have gotten into the CFP, because all of the P5 conference champs were ranked #6 or higher.

This sentence should have been written differently:

"Join a conference, knowing that this would give them two different possible ways of making the CFP (by going undefeated, or by going 12-1 and winning their conference championship).

However, note that the above also included this sentence meant to clarify that it would be possible, but not certain: "...it would be possible to advance to the CFP, even if they lose a mid-season game."

.

However, I still think that BYU would have a much better chance to make the playoffs by joining a conference.

Why? Because:

1) A 12-1 G5 conference champion would have made the CFP in 2014, 15, 16, 17, and 18. Only in 2013 and 2019 would a one-loss G5 conference champion have missed the playoff.

and

2) It would even be possible for a 2-loss G5 conference champ to make the CFP:

For example, (11-2) Boise St. was the top-ranked 2014 G5 conference champion.

.

I would like to see BYU get a chance to play for a conference championship.

However, they had a lot more success when they were members of the WAC and MWC.

It would be possible for them to ranked high enough to make the CFP as an independent - - but only if they beat those teams.

Unfortunately, the Cougars have only won about 40% of their games vs. P5 teams.


Their best season as an independent, when they played P5 teams was in 2011.

In 2011, BYU went 10-3. They went 2-2 vs. P5 teams.

Unfortunately, that wasn't good enough to get them into the top 25 that year.

Instead, they ended up at #32 in the Massey Composite rankings.

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2011-15.htm

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Equally striking, the only time that BYU has finished in the final AP top 25 in the past decade was the one season when they didn't play any P5 teams.

That's one of the reasons why I think BYU would have a much better chance of making it into the playoffs if they join a conference.

If making the playoffs is their sole goal, then how is the American a better option than say, the Mountain West? Wouldn’t the MWC be an easier path?

I keep getting told no. I get why a lot of AAC fans want the MWC teams but western schools joining a 14 school Eastern conference and winning it will be impossible. Winning a 12 team western conference is much much more likely I would think.

The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.