(06-27-2021 07:24 PM)Crayton Wrote:  12-Team Playoff Race
Despite being #2 and undefeated, Ohio State is the 6th most likely team to earn a BYE, behind Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Texas, and Oregon.

Who is most likely to fit in at each spot?
Top 4 Champ: Georgia, Clemson, Texas, Oregon
Open Home: Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan
Open Away: Alabama, Wisconsin, UAB, Air Force

Bracket
SUGAR: Georgia vs. Wisconsin@Miami
ROSE: Oregon vs. Air Force@Ohio State
FIESTA: Texas vs. Alabama@Michigan
ORANGE: Clemson vs. UAB@Notre Dame

B=BYE,C=First Round Champ, A=At Large
H=First Round Home, X=Non Playoff Champ

Code:

B:4971 C:385 A:4129 H:1740 X:0 Georgia
B:2994 C:198 A:3191 H:277 X:0 Alabama
B:723 C:729 A:0 H:304 X:0 Auburn

B:496 C:28 A:9198 H:8052 X:0 Miami
B:4916 C:1235 A:1834 H:523 X:0 Clemson
B:1873 C:1442 A:54 H:710 X:10 North Carolina

B:2945 C:0 A:7055 H:6813 X:0 Ohio St
B:2348 C:128 A:7395 H:4628 X:0 Michigan
B:605 C:52 A:5333 H:2259 X:1 Wisconsin
B:2870 C:1017 A:237 H:226 X:34 Iowa

B:5722 C:9 A:4265 H:4104 X:0 Texas
B:2022 C:1877 A:106 H:403 X:370 Oklahoma

B:5577 C:436 A:2791 H:476 X:0 Oregon
B:1790 C:1713 A:75 H:543 X:484 USC

B:0 C:0 A:9977 H:8865 X:0 Notre Dame
B:121 C:6652 A:0 H:38 X:1108 UAB
B:0 C:0 A:4084 H:27 X:0 Air Force
B:25 C:3162 A:0 H:1 X:4018 Ohio
B:2 C:1088 A:0 H:11 X:7304 Boise St
B:0 C:36 A:0 H:0 X:1906 Marshall
B:0 C:38 A:0 H:0 X:5503 Cincinnati
B:0 C:31 A:0 H:0 X:1986 Memphis
B:0 C:19 A:0 H:0 X:125 Buffalo
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:2441 Tulane
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:5827 Louisiana
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4173 Coastal Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:2606 Toledo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1208 San Diego St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:398 Hawaii
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:177 WKU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:45 Western Michigan

8% chance a P5 Champ misses (mostly 3-loss USC or Oklahoma)
11% chance two G5 Champs make it (primarily UAB, Ohio, or Boise)
40% Air Force makes it as an at large.
1.5% chance a G5 Champ gets a bye (mostly UAB, who lost to Georgia by 6)

Right—but that just means that Ohio St has a tougher opponent remaining. Alabama and Georgia can’t both get a bye—one cancels the other out. If Ohio St wins out, they are a 2 seed at minimum, maybe #1 overall.