The playoff picture still has undefeated Power teams guaranteed to make the playoff (with the exception of 13-0 Missouri making the playoff in only 98% of simulations).

After that, here are the categories:
Guarantees > 90%
99% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (42%)
98% (11-1) Notre Dame (24%)
97% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (25%)
91% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (4%)
Contenders > 50%
89% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (30%)
80% 1-loss at large Big Ten (42%)
80% 1-loss at large Big 12 (13%)
75% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (60%)
68% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (56%)
Need Help > 25%
46% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (26%)
39% 0-loss CHAMP MAC (38%)
31% 1-loss at large ACC (9%)
29% (11-1) BYU (26%)
Long Shots < 25%
14% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (37%)
13% 2-loss at large Big Ten (121%)
12% (10-2) Notre Dame (41%)
7% 2-loss at large Pac 12 (21%)
5% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (21%)
3% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (30%)
3% 1-loss at large SEC (11%)
3% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (68%)
1% 2-loss at large Big 12 (39%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (108%)
0% 2-loss at large SEC (175%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (5%)
0% 1-loss at large MWC (16%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (43%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (14%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (39%)

Basically, 1-loss Power teams have a good shot at the playoffs. After simming through the next 4 weeks, I'll break this down by teams. A 1-loss SEC Champ still seems low. Here is a more detailed breakdown:
84% (11-1)+W Georgia (22%)
77% (11-1)+W Alabama (32%)
63% (11-1)+W LSU (1%)
3% (11-1)+W Missouri (3%)
The Alabama numbers may be depressed by that head-to-head Miami loss we talked about earlier, but the Missouri numbers really drive the average down.